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Data: U.S. Customs and Border Protection; Chart: Axios Visuals

While the migrant crisis plaguing the Biden administration still pales in comparison to another peak under then-President Trump in 2019, the trends are alarming and only expected to get worse with warmer weather.

The big picture: The Biden administration is seeing a weekly average of about 500 unaccompanied children cross the southwest border every day, and it was able to return to Mexico just 10% of the migrant families who crossed illegally Saturday, according to government data provided to Axios.

Driving the news: If the average number of unaccompanied kids holds, there could be more than 15,000 crossing the border in March — more than the administration's projected peak of 13,000 in May, as Axios reported last month.

  • The Biden administration has continued to say they are using a public health order to return migrant families to Mexico, but the percentage of families expelled has steadily fallen.
  • Only 10% of the more than 1,800 families caught crossing the border Saturday were expelled under the order, according to documents leaked to Axios.
  • Administration officials have pointed to Mexico's limited capacity to take in families, especially those with young children. The administration also has chosen to not use a Trump-era policy and is allowing unaccompanied children to remain in the United States rather than expelling them.

By the numbers: Migration trends vary, but April and May have typically been peak months for migration because of milder weather.

  • During the 2014 crisis under President Obama, the number of unaccompanied children crossing the border did not surpass 8,000 until May, reaching a peak of 10,620 in June, according to U.S. Customs and Border Protection data.
  • Just last month, there already were more than 9,000 unaccompanied kids apprehended by the Border Patrol — also surpassing every month of the crisis year of 2019, except May.

The other side: The Biden administration is avoiding 2019's never-before-seen levels of family migration — so far.

  • But February numbers more than doubled from the month before, even with officials quickly returning some families to Mexico.

The bottom line: The Biden administration is trying to address the problems through meetings with Mexico and Guatemala, hotel contracts, temporary overflow shelters, rolling back COVID-19 protocols and expedited migrant release.

  • The numbers continue to grow, however.

Go deeper

Updated 45 mins ago - Politics & Policy

Trump sues New York Times and his niece over tax report

Former President Trump hosting a boxing match in Hollywood, Florida on Sept. 11. Photo: Chandan Khanna/AFP via Getty Images

Former President Trump filed a $100 million lawsuit against the New York Times and his niece Mary Trump on Tuesday over the news outlet's 2018 reporting on his tax records, the Daily Beast first reported.

Details: The suit, filed in New York's Dutchess County, alleges NYT journalists "engaged in an insidious plot to obtain confidential and highly-sensitive records" and that they "convinced" Mary Trump to "smuggle records out of her attorney's office and turn them over to The Times."

Brazil's health minister tests positive for COVID during UN summit in N.Y.

President of Brazil Jair Bolsonaro (L) and Health Minister Marcelo Queiroga in Brasilia, Brazil, in May. Photo: Andressa Anholete/Getty Images

Brazil's Health Minister Marcelo Queirog has tested positive for COVID-19 while in New York City for the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA), he confirmed Tuesday night.

Why it matters: Hours earlier, Queirog had accompanied Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro to the UNGA. The Biden administration expressed concern last week that the gathering of world leaders could become a coronavirus "superspreader event."

House passes government funding, debt ceiling bill

Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Photo by Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images

The House passed a bill on Tuesday to fund the government through early December, along with a measure to raise the debt ceiling through December 2022.

Why it matters: The stopgap measure, which needs to be passed to avoid a government shutdown when funding expires on Sept. 30, faces a difficult journey in the Senate where at least ten Republicans would need to vote in favor.