Cotton to House GOP: You'll lose the majority if you vote for this - Axios
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Cotton to House GOP: You'll lose the majority if you vote for this

Alex Brandon / AP

Sen. Tom Cotton warned House Republicans on Sunday that the House Republican Obamacare replacement bill can't pass the Senate as written — and that they could lose the House in next year's elections if they vote for it. "I'm afraid that if they vote for this bill, they're going to put the House majority at risk next year," Cotton said on ABC's "This Week." He warned that it would have "adverse consequences for millions of Americans" and wouldn't lower costs: "Do not walk the plank and vote for a bill that cannot pass the Senate and then have to face the consequences of that vote."

Why it matters: Cotton's warning was even more urgent than his comments last week that the House should slow down. Earlier in the show, Office of Management and Budget director Mick Mulvaney said the speed of the process isn't a problem, because the bill is just "a framework" and Cotton and other senators will have chances to amend it. But Cotton says the bill would require "a lot of carpentry," because it would leave Obamacare's insurance regulations in place, which he says drive up costs.

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Erdogan suggests Russia getting more results in Syria than U.S.


Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan told Bloomberg's John Micklethwait Wednesday that he has had several conversations with both the U.S. and Russia regarding how to handle the crisis in Syria. Erdogan said nothing came of repeated talks with the U.S. under the Obama administration, but with with Russia there have been tangible results.

Why it matters: The U.S. and Russia, which is allied with the Assad regime, have different visions for a post-war Syria. Erdogan is suggesting that working with Vladimir Putin, not the U.S., is the clearest path to reaching a peace deal.

Who has done more to help with Syria, Obama or President Trump? Erdogan dodged, stating that he "will not invest myself in an effort to measure them both." However, he said he has expressed his thought to Trump and hopefully they can "unite on these facts and take future steps accordingly" at their meeting in NYC Thursday.

On Assad

  • "The conflict in Syria has been going on for the last several years, and unfortunately the person leading Syria, Bashar al-Assad, has killed many of his own people... it's state-sponsored terror... I have repeatedly warned Assad about this conflict and I have used our friendship as a vessel to warn him but nothing has changed."

On Turkey's weapons deal with Russia, and why it bothers Western allies

  • Erdogan said that while Turkey is a member of NATO, it doesn't have the same access to powerful weapons and systems as other member nations do.
  • Erdogan said that with violence raging in Syria, the weapons deal with Russia was necessary to protect his country.
  • Erdogan said Turkey has requested drones and missiles for many years from other countries, but has been repeatedly rejected, so "we were forced to take these matters upon ourselves."

Is Russia an ally?

  • Erdogan says leaders should "increase the number of allies," and that is what he is trying to do in regards to Russia.
  • On Monday he will have a phone call with Putin, and next Thursday they will meet for dinner to discuss the problems in Syria.

Turkey on wanting EU membership

  • "For the last 54 years we have been lingering at the doorstep of the EU... they say 'there have been countries before you and we still haven't admitted them.' NO! This is a political embargo on Turkey... No country ever suffered from such an approach."
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Graham-Cassidy could delay tax reform rollout

Sen. Lindsey Graham speaks at the Capitol last week. Photo: Andrew Harnik / AP

Administration officials have been debating whether to delay the tax rollout until the first week of October to clear space for the Graham-Cassidy health care bill. Sources with direct knowledge tell me no final decisions have been made as of Wednesday afternoon, but Trump has been impatient for tax reform to begin so he may not tolerate any more delays.

Why it matters: Sources involved say the plan is still to roll out tax reform next week, but some officials are wringing their hands about the health care bill — the Senate could vote as early as Wednesday — ruining tax reform's launch week by sucking all of the attention away from tax.

Why it's happening: Trump wants tax reform on schedule, but the Senate is running out of days to use reconciliation to change elements of the Affordable Care Act. Meanwhile, there is concern of potential leaks from the upcoming House Ways and Means Committee retreat, and the "Big Six" that's negotiating the plan has yet to decide what to put in the document that will guide tax reform.

  • An administration official told me the White House invited Big Six communications and coalitions teams to the Roosevelt Room on Wednesday afternoon to discuss what a rollout of tax reform would look like.
  • The group is still operating under the assumption that the rollout will happen next week as originally planned.
The "Big Six": House Ways and Means Committee chairman Kevin Brady, House Speaker Paul Ryan, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, Senate Finance Committee chairman Orrin Hatch, Treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin and White House economic adviser Gary Cohn.
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Mueller's probe shifts to Trump's presidency

Robert Mueller testifies on Capitol Hill in 2013. Photo: J. Scott Applewhite / AP

Special Counsel Robert Mueller has sent the White House a request for documents pertaining to some of President Trump's most controversial moves in office, per a report from The New York Times. The news suggests that at least part of the Russia probe is focused directly on Trump's time as president.

What Mueller wants: Trump's meeting with high-ranking Russian officials in the Oval Office the day after Comey's firing; the events leading to the firing of Michael Flynn; and the White House's response to questions from NYT about Donald Trump Jr.'s Trump Tower meeting with Russian officials.

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Artificial intelligence pioneer calls for the breakup of Big Tech

Illustration: Lazaro Gamio / Axios

Yoshua Bengio, the artificial intelligence pioneer, says the centralization of wealth, power and capability in Big Tech is "dangerous for democracy" and that the companies should be broken up.

Why it matters: Bengio is a professor at the University of Montreal and a member of the three-man "Canadian Mafia" that pioneered machine learning, the leading method used in AI. His remarks are notable because of his influence in the AI community and because he or his peers all either directly lead or consult for Big Tech's AI programs. Says Bengio: "Concentration of wealth leads to concentration of power. That's one reason why monopoly is dangerous. It's dangerous for democracy."

The AI pioneers: Bengio consults for IBM and his colleagues Geoffrey Hinton consults for Google and Yann LeCun for Facebook. Ruslan Salakhutdinov, a protege of Hinton's, runs Apple's AI research effort.

Benigo said the concentration of resources, talent and knowledge among giant tech companies is only increasing and governments must act. "We need to create a more level playing field for people and companies," Bengio told Axios at an AI conference in Toronto last week.

In recent years, Apple, Facebook, Google and Microsoft have amassed a towering lead in AI research. But now, they are subject to growing scrutiny because of their outsized influence on society, politics and the economy. I asked Bengio if the companies should be broken up. He harrumphed and responded that anti-trust laws should be enforced. "Governments have become so meek in front of companies," he said.

"AI is a technology that naturally lends itself to a winner take all," Bengio said. "The country and company that dominates the technology will gain more power with time. More data and a larger customer base gives you an advantage that is hard to dislodge. Scientists want to go to the best places. The company with the best research labs will attract the best talent. It becomes a concentration of wealth and power."

When some of the young people gathered around him looked a bit dejected, Bengio responded, "Don't despair — fight."

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After summer of historic lows, Trump's popularity improves

Photo: Carolyn Kaster / AP

After several months of reaching record-lows in approval, new polls are showing President Trump's ratings beginning to climb upwards, according to Politico.

  • POLITICO/Morning Consult: 39% last month vs. 43% this week
  • Gallup: 35% last month vs. 38% last week
  • RealClearPolitics average: 37.4% August 14 vs. 39.9% September 20

How it happened: Politico reports Trump's responses to hurricanes Irma and Harvey helped his approval, after his ratings taking a over Charlottesville. Also, while his decision to end DACA was unpopular, he gained momentum from his negotiation with Sen. Schumer and Rep. Pelosi. But, his "popularity still remains historically low for a first-year president."

Other findings: Trump's upward trend over the past month is bigger with independents (+5%) than Republicans or Democrats (both +2%).

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Howard Schultz: Companies need to balance profit and conscience

AP

Howard Schultz, who rose from the projects in Brooklyn to create Starbucks, is making it a personal mission to find jobs for some of the least-advantaged and, in his view, most deserving in the United States: veterans and their families, refugees, and, with a job fair today, young people who are neither going to school nor working.

Why it matters: Schultz and his partners are attempting to pull a much-overlooked segment of U.S. society into the work force at a time that public hostility is driven in large part by low and stagnant salaries, and deep pockets of joblessness in inner cities and rust belts.

We caught up with Schultz at the Convention Center in downtown Washington, DC, where Starbucks and about a dozen other companies were conducting interviews with some 1,800 job-seekers aged 16 to 24 years old, seeking to hire as many as possible on the spot, and others over the coming months.

The background: The official national unemployment rate is just 4.4%, but we all know that statistic camouflages a world of misery: Among it is an 11.7% jobless rate for people 16 to 24 — those trying to just get started — and worse for black youths (14.6%) and Latinos (11.9%). Between the lines are young people who have dropped out of school, are jobless, have a criminal record, or are a parent.

Schultz's organization is attempting to attack the whole crippling system. Downstairs from where we spoke, there was a place for job applicants to leave their child while they were interviewed; a place to type up a quick resume; a place to put on a tie and jacket; and one for makeup. For those hired on the spot, there was advice for finding a place to stay, for public transportation, and child care. Companies, Schultz said, need to find "a balance between profit and conscience."

A need for "truthfulness": Regardless of what I asked in our quick, 15-minute chat, Schultz kept returning to what he said the country sorely needs — civility and respect toward one another. "There is a need for more truth and more transparency, not only because of Donald Trump becoming president," he said. "We've needed that for some time. There is a great need for servant leadership and truthfulness."

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Fed to begin reversing its huge stimulus program

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen testifies before Congress. Photo: Pablo Martinez / AP

The Federal Reserve will begin selling off the government debt and mortgage bonds it amassed to help drive down interest rates and stabilize the housing market in the aftermath of the financial crisis, a move that signals the central bank's growing confidence in the U.S. economy.

Steady as she goes: The Fed will shrink the value of its portfolio of bonds by just $10 billion per month, a fraction of its $4.5 trillion stockpile. The modest nature of the move reflects the Fed's recognition that despite historically low unemployment rates, wage growth has been tame and inflation remains below the bank's 2% annual target.

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Obama: ACA is the reason "people are alive today"

Barack Obama delivers his speech during the 4th Congress of Indonesian Diaspora Network in Jakarta, Indonesia this July. Achmad Ibrahim / AP

While speaking at an event sponsored by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation today, former President Barack Obama said "people are alive today because of" the Affordable Care Act, "and when I see people trying to undo that hard-won progress…it is aggravating."

Obama ripped into the Graham-Cassidy bill, which proposes block grant funding to be distributed among the states. Obama said it would "raise costs, reduce coverage and roll back protections for older Americans, and people with pre-existing conditions." Based on current projections from consulting firm Avalere Health, health care cuts could top $4 trillion under this bill.

Other key quotes:

  • "Nationalist thought, xenophobic sentiment ... a politics that threatens to turn good people away from the kind of collective action that has always driven human progress."
  • On climate change: It's the "threat that may define the contours of this century more than any other."
  • On the future of the internet: "I don't think we can count on conventional media to spread the word [of progress]. This is where the power of the internet has not been harnessed the way it needs to be, particularly when you think of young people and young audiences.
Watch Obama speak:

Obama is speaking across town from Trump's UN appearance.

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Trump tells leaders his friends are going to Africa "to get rich"

President Trump addressed African leaders at a UN luncheon, and discussed the "tremendous potential" of Africa, particularly economically. He also said he was disturbed by violence in South Sudan and the Congo, and planned to send UN Ambassador Nikki Haley to Africa.

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Amazon reportedly talking to pharmacy benefit managers

Amazon may be trying to start building pharmacy contracts. Photo: Richard Drew / AP

Amazon may be talking with some middle-market pharmacy benefit managers "in an effort to get into various contract arrangements," according to analysts at investment bank Leerink Partners who spoke with pharmacy executives. Amazon may pursue a mail-order pharmacy that initially targets uninsured customers or people who have high deductibles and pay cash for most of their prescription drugs.

Reality check: The country is still a long way from Amazon handling people's prescriptions, if that time even comes. But conservations with prescription drug middlemen make it appear "that this is the direction Amazon is moving in," Leerink said in a report. Pharmacy executives who spoke with Leerink said it would take at least 18 to 24 months for Amazon to get proper drug licenses in 50 states. Amazon didn't immediately respond.