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Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

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Photo: Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

The news about U.S. job losses has been grim, as around 26.5 million workers have filed for unemployment benefits in the past five weeks, but the number of Americans who have lost their jobs is likely far higher.

The state of play: The true number of people currently unemployed in the U.S. is likely between 32 million and 70 million, putting the unemployment rate somewhere between 20% and 45%.

Driving the news: The latest U.S. initial jobless claims report showed more than 4.4 million laid-off workers applied for unemployment benefits last week, raising the total to about one in six American workers.

  • Continuing unemployment claims, or the total number of Americans receiving jobless benefits, rose by 4.1 million to an all-time high of 16 million for the week ended April 11.

By the numbers: Over the last decade, continuing claims have represented an average of about 27.5% of the number of unemployed, DRW Trading rates strategist Lou Brien tells Axios.

  • That would suggest there are more than 60 million people currently unemployed, putting the unemployment rate above 30%.
  • And that's a conservative estimate, given that continuing claims have increased by about 4 million people in each of the last three weeks.
  • The number of people unemployed today could very realistically be as high as 70 million.

Even if the continuing claims percentage jumps to 50% of unemployed, meaning nearly twice as many unemployed people as average qualify for and are receiving benefits, it would mean that upwards of 32 million people are now unemployed.

  • The rate has only risen to 50% once, in 1975, Brien notes.

Be smart: Both initial jobless claims and continuing claims are imperfect measures of the number of people who have lost their jobs as many are not eligible for unemployment benefits and some who are do not apply.

  • To remedy this, the U.S. government tracks unemployment through two separate means — employer filings and a regular survey of households.
  • But every measure misses large numbers of people, so the true unemployment rate at a given time is often not known until years later.

Go deeper: The coronavirus jobs apocalypse is here

Go deeper

Updated Oct 7, 2020 - Health

World coronavirus updates

Expand chart
Data: The Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins; Map: Axios Visuals

New Zealand now has active no coronavirus cases in the community after the final six people linked to the Auckland cluster recovered, the country's Health Ministry confirmed in an email Wednesday.

The big picture: The country's second outbreak won't officially be declared closed until there have been "no new cases for two incubation periods," the ministry said. Auckland will join the rest of NZ in enjoying no domestic restrictions from late Wednesday, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said, declaring that NZ had "beat the virus again."

Trump says Fauci is "wrong" about coronavirus cases surge

President Trump and National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases director Anthony Fauci during an April daily coronavirus task force briefing at the White House. Photo: Drew Angerer/Getty Images

President Trump called out Anthony Fauci Saturday in a comment retweeting a video of the NIAID director explaining why coronavirus cases have been surging in the U.S.

Driving the news: In the video of Friday's testimony, Fauci explained that while European countries shut 95% of their economies, the U.S. "functionally shut down only about 50%." Trump responded, "Wrong! We have more cases because we have tested far more than any other country, 60,000,000.

Updated 11 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

  1. Vaccines: Biden to get booster shot on camera — Pfizer vaccine safe, effective in children, company says — The booster vaccine discussion is far from over.
  2. Health: Study: Pandemic cut U.S. life expectancy by more than 9 million years — U.S. death toll surpasses 1918 flu fatalities — Chicago has highest case rates in city worker neighborhoods.
  3. Politics: Biden to push vaccine-sharing at UN, but boosters at home — Rep. Tim Ryan tests positive — Biden administration to lift travel ban for fully vaccinated international travelers.
  4. Education: D.C. schools to require teachers, staff to receive vaccine without testing option — More schools using "test-to-stay" strategy to minimize quarantines.
  5. Variant tracker: Where different strains are spreading.