Photo: Kevin Dietsch/Pool/AFP via Getty Images

The summer reprieve from the coronavirus isn't coming, and the outbreak is hitting the Sun Belt the hardest.

Why it matters: Anthony Fauci warned today of a "disturbing surge" driven by community spread in metropolitan areas in Florida, Texas and Arizona.

  • "We were going down from 30,000 [new cases per day] to 25,000 to 20,000, and then we sort of stayed kind of flat, but now we're going up. A couple of days ago there were 30,000 new infections."

Between the lines: This isn't just from expanded testing.

  • In Arizona, the state's positive test rate has soared to 21%, the FT reports. That's a 3x increase from a month ago.
  • In Florida, the state had a 10% positivity rate on Monday, up from 4% at the beginning of the month.
  • In Texas, the city of Houston's positivity rate has tripled to 9%.

Grim comparison: A dean at the Baylor College of Medicine warned that Houston could "become the worst affected city" in America if the trajectory holds, and "maybe rival what we're seeing now in Brazil."

  • Brazil has now joined the U.S. as the second country to register 50,000 confirmed coronavirus deaths.

The big picture: Texas Gov. Greg Abbott even warned that lockdowns — a last resort — could return if the outbreak grows.

  • “If we are unable to contain the spiraling spread of COVID-19, there will be more requirements put on businesses, including even considering have to ratchet back on the expansion of opening businesses in Texas.”
  • Abbott warned that the "spread is so rapid right now, there’s never a reason for you to have to leave your home unless you need to go out."
  • "The safest place for you is at your home.”

The bottom line: Don't plan any European trips.

  • America risks being lumped with Russia and Brazil as countries that failed to control the coronavirus when the EU reopens its borders on July 1, according to the N.Y. Times.

Go deeper

Study: Stay-at-home orders may have averted up to 370,000 coronavirus deaths

Protesters opposing the California stay-at-home orders in May. Photo: Stanton Sharpe/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

As many as 250,000 to 370,000 deaths may have been averted between March and May 15 as a result of the statewide stay-at-home orders enacted to mitigate spread of the coronavirus, a study published Thursday in Health Affairs projects.

Why it matters: Lockdown restrictions have largely been lifted, but the coronavirus pandemic keeps getting worse all across the country. New modeling suggests the outbreaks could lead to more than 200,000 deaths by the end of year.

Jul 9, 2020 - Health

Florida reports highest single-day coronavirus death toll since pandemic began

People are tested for COVID-19 in Orlando, Florida on July 8. Photo: Paul Hennessy/NurPhoto via Getty Images

120 people in Florida have died from the novel coronavirus in the last 24 hours, the state's health department reported on Thursday.

Why it matters: It's the state's highest daily death toll from the coronavirus since the pandemic began, according to data from the COVID Tracking Project.

Updated Jul 9, 2020 - Politics & Policy

Republican Party of Texas sues Houston mayor for cancelling GOP state convention

Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner in September. Photo: Robyn Beck/AFP via Getty Images

Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner (D) Wednesday called off the Texas Republican Party's in-person convention set for next week because of a statewide spike in coronavirus cases.

Driving the news: The Republican Party of Texas filed a lawsuit against Turner and the city of Houston on Thursday for a breach of contract and asked for a temporary restraining order to prevent the city from restricting convention center events.