Photo: Kevin Dietsch/Pool/AFP via Getty Images

The summer reprieve from the coronavirus isn't coming, and the outbreak is hitting the Sun Belt the hardest.

Why it matters: Anthony Fauci warned today of a "disturbing surge" driven by community spread in metropolitan areas in Florida, Texas and Arizona.

  • "We were going down from 30,000 [new cases per day] to 25,000 to 20,000, and then we sort of stayed kind of flat, but now we're going up. A couple of days ago there were 30,000 new infections."

Between the lines: This isn't just from expanded testing.

  • In Arizona, the state's positive test rate has soared to 21%, the FT reports. That's a 3x increase from a month ago.
  • In Florida, the state had a 10% positivity rate on Monday, up from 4% at the beginning of the month.
  • In Texas, the city of Houston's positivity rate has tripled to 9%.

Grim comparison: A dean at the Baylor College of Medicine warned that Houston could "become the worst affected city" in America if the trajectory holds, and "maybe rival what we're seeing now in Brazil."

  • Brazil has now joined the U.S. as the second country to register 50,000 confirmed coronavirus deaths.

The big picture: Texas Gov. Greg Abbott even warned that lockdowns — a last resort — could return if the outbreak grows.

  • “If we are unable to contain the spiraling spread of COVID-19, there will be more requirements put on businesses, including even considering have to ratchet back on the expansion of opening businesses in Texas.”
  • Abbott warned that the "spread is so rapid right now, there’s never a reason for you to have to leave your home unless you need to go out."
  • "The safest place for you is at your home.”

The bottom line: Don't plan any European trips.

  • America risks being lumped with Russia and Brazil as countries that failed to control the coronavirus when the EU reopens its borders on July 1, according to the N.Y. Times.

Go deeper

Sep 30, 2020 - Health

COVID-19 cases on the rise among U.S. children

Illustration: Eniola Odetunde/Axios

An increasing number of COVID-19 cases among school-aged children across the U.S. throughout September may be linked to school reopenings and other community activities resuming.

Driving the news: The American Academy of Pediatrics reported this week that children of all ages make up 10% of U.S cases, up from 2% in April, per AP. As of Monday, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention counted more than 435,000 cases among children ages 0–17, and 93 deaths.

Oct 1, 2020 - Health

Moderna says its coronavirus vaccine won't be ready until 2021

A laboratory technician preparing a blood sample for a vaccine clinical trial sponsored by Moderna. Photo: Paul Hennessy/NurPhoto via Getty Images

Moderna CEO Stéphane Bancel said Wednesday that his company's coronavirus vaccine won't be available for widespread distribution until at least spring 2021, according to Financial Times.

Why it matters: Bancel told FT that the drugmaker will not seek emergency authorization for FDA approval for its vaccine for front-line medical workers and at-risk individuals until Nov. 25 at the earliest.

CDC: 3,689 COVID-19 or coronavirus-like cases found on cruise ships in U.S.

Cruise Ships docked in April at the port at Marina Long Beach due to a no-sail order in Long Beach, in California. Photo: Apu Gomes/AFP via Getty Images

There have been at least 3,689 COVID-19 or coronavirus-like illness cases on cruise ships in U.S. waters, "in addition to at least 41 reported deaths," the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said late Wednesday.

Driving the news: The CDC released the data from the period of March 1 through Sept. 29 in an emailed statement confirming the extension of a no-sail order for cruise ships through Oct. 31, as first reported by Axios' Jonathan Swan on Tuesday in his article revealing CDC director Robert Redfield was overruled in a push to extend the order into 2021.