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Data: The COVID Tracking Project, state health departments; Editor's note: This graphic was corrected to reflect Pennsylvania's cases increased 5% (not 32%); Map: Andrew Witherspoon, Sara Wise, Danielle Alberti/Axios

The coronavirus pandemic is getting dramatically worse in almost every corner of the U.S.

The big picture: The U.S. today is getting closer to the worst-case scenario envisioned in the spring — a nationwide crisis, made worse by a vacuum of political leadership, threatening to overwhelm hospitals and spread out of control.

  • Nationwide, cases are up 30% compared to the beginning of this month, and dramatically worsening outbreaks in several states are beginning to strain hospital capacity — the same concern that prompted the nationwide lockdown in the first place.
  • This is the grimmest map in the eight weeks since Axios began tracking the change in new cases in every state.

By the numbers: Over half the country — 26 states — have seen their coronavirus caseloads increase over the past week.

  • New cases are up 77% in Arizona, 75% in Michigan, 70% in Texas and 66% in Florida.
  • California, which has seen steady increases for weeks, recorded a 47% jump in new infections over the past week.
  • These steep increases come after weeks of steadily climbing cases or back-and-forth results across the South, Midwest and West Coast. Only the New York region and parts of New England — the earliest hotspots — have consistently managed to get their caseloads down throughout May and June.

Increased testing does not explain away these numbers. Other data points make clear that we’re seeing a worsening outbreak, not simply getting better data.

  • Seven states, including Arizona, have set records for the number of people hospitalized with coronavirus, and the percentage of all tests that come back positive is also increasing.
  • The whole point of the national lockdown was to buy time to improve testing and give infection levels a chance to level off without overwhelming hospitals. That worked in New York, but as other parts of the country begin to see their outbreaks intensify later, the same risks are back at the forefront.

Between the lines: Axios uses a rolling seven-day average to minimize the effects of any abnormalities in how and when new cases are reported.

What’s next: Younger people are making up a greater share of all cases, and tend to be less susceptible to serious injury or death, so hopefully this spike in new cases won’t be followed by an equivalent spike in deaths.

  • But it’s too early to say that for sure.

Editor's note: This graphic was corrected to reflect Pennsylvania's cases increased 5% (not 32%).

Go deeper

Updated 22 hours ago - Health

Which states have set single-day coronavirus records in the past week

Data: Compiled from state health departments by Axios; Map: Danielle Alberti/Axios

California recorded 11,529 new novel coronavirus cases on Sunday, beating the record it set last week (9,480).

The big picture: At least 15 states have broken their single-day coronavirus infection records in the past week, according to state health department data reviewed by Axios.

Arizona reports record daily coronavirus deaths and hospitalizations

Arizona continues to administer coronavirus tests. Photo: Mark Ralston/AFP via Getty Images

Arizona reported a record 117 new coronavirus deaths, 3,356 total hospitalizations, and 869 ICU beds in use on Tuesday, according to data from Arizona's Department of Health Services.

Why it matters: The number of daily deaths in coronavirus hotspots across the Sunbelt has not reached the levels that New York saw at the peak of its outbreak, likely because many of the new cases are young people with little to no symptoms. But that could start to change as hospitals reach maximum capacity and more vulnerable groups contract the virus.

Updated 4 hours ago - Health

World coronavirus updates

Data: The Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins; Map: Axios Visuals

India has reported more coronavirus cases than any other country besides the U.S. and Brazil, per Johns Hopkins data.

By the numbers: More than 539,000 people have died from the virus and more than 11.6 million have tested positive worldwide. More than 6.3 million patients have recovered.