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Data: IHME COVID-19 health service utilization forecasting team; Cartogram: Andrew Witherspoon/Axios

Although the coronavirus is expected to peak in the U.S. in two weeks, many states will see their individual peaks well after that, according to a model by the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.

Why it matters: States like Virginia and Maryland have more time to prepare for their systems to be maximally strained — if they make good use of that time.

States' coronavirus peaks are defined as the point at which there is the most demand for resources, namely hospital beds and ventilators.

  • This is also the point at which the most health care workers will be needed to care for coronavirus patients.

Some experts warn that states expected to face the hardest hit later in the year aren't using their lead time well.

  • "The states that are going to be affected last need to start husbanding resources now, because the feds could get tapped out ... by some of these early states, particularly New York, which has absorbed a lot of federal resources," former Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Scott Gottlieb told me.
  • Even though they may not be seeing a huge number of cases now, states like Texas and Florida should stop doing elective surgeries now in order to preserve personal protective equipment — like masks, gowns and gloves — for their health care workers, Gottlieb added.

The bottom line: Coronavirus outbreaks, both globally and in the U.S., have seemed manageable until it's too late. For states that so far aren't hit hard, there's no such thing as over-preparing.

Subscribe to Mike Allen's Axios AM to follow our coronavirus coverage each morning from your inbox.

Go deeper

9 mins ago - Health

Johnson & Johnson to resume COVID vaccine rollout in Europe

Photo: Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images

Johnson & Johnson announced Tuesday it would resume the rollout of its coronavirus vaccine in Europe after the European Medicines Agency (EMA) said unusual blood clots should be listed as a "very rare" side effect of the company's vaccine, but that the benefits of the shot still outweigh the risks.

Why it matters: Johnson & Johnson was set to send 50 million doses of its one-shot coronavirus vaccine to the European Union before it delayed it's European rollout earlier in April "out of an abundance of caution" over rare blood clotting events.

Biden says "right verdict" in Chauvin trial is "overwhelming"

President Biden told reporters Tuesday that he's "come to know" George Floyd's family and that he's "praying the verdict is the right verdict" in Derek Chauvin's trial, as the nation awaits the jury's decision.

Why it matters: Officials fear a not-guilty decision in the high-profile case could inflame racial tensions and set off a new wave of riots. The jury was sequestered and entered deliberation after closing arguments on Monday.