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Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

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Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

Reopening any state in the U.S. right now — even the ones with low caseloads — would be a big risk.

The big picture: Places with low caseloads can easily become hotspots if they don't plan correctly. And no state has a plan to address the increase in coronavirus cases that looser social distancing will likely bring.

Driving the news: Some states "will be able to go literally tomorrow," President Trump said yesterday, as he released the administration’s blueprint for beginning to reopen the economy.

  • But at the same time, several states, including New York, have extended their shelter-in-place orders into May.

"I have not yet seen any place amass the plans or the resources to do that," said Jennifer Nuzzo, senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security.

Between the lines: Places that don't have many confirmed cases now are still susceptible to new waves of infection.

  • Although rural and suburban areas haven't yet been hit as hard as cities, "there's nothing that makes those places immune from coronavirus," said Harvard's Ashish Jha. "It will just take much longer, because the spread is going to be slow."

Testing is still a big part of the problem.

  • The number of confirmed cases almost certainly underrepresents the real number of cases. And to safely manage future outbreaks without extreme social distancing, we'll need to be able to find and isolate people who are sick but don't know it yet.
  • Most of the country isn't prepared for that level of testing.

The bottom line: "It's not so much about the case numbers," Nuzzo said. "It's also about whether we have the strategies or the resources in place to deal with the cases that will emerge after the measures are put in place."

Go deeper

11 mins ago - World

Russian authorities say Navalny has been transferred to hospital

Photo: Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Images

Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny has been hospitalized, one day after his doctor warned that the jailed Putin critic "could die at any moment," Russia's prison service said Monday.

Why it matters: News that Navalny's condition had severely deteriorated on the third week of a hunger strike prompted outrage from his supporters and international demands for Russia to provide him with immediate medical treatment.

Felix Salmon, author of Capital
22 mins ago - Economy & Business

The state worst hit by the pandemic

Data: Hamilton Place Strategies; Chart: Will Chase/Axios

When the coronavirus pandemic hit, the job facing governments was to save lives and save jobs. Very few states did well on both measures, while New York, almost uniquely, did particularly badly on both.

Why it matters: The jury is still out on whether there was a trade-off between the dual imperatives; a new analysis from Hamilton Place Strategies shows no clear correlation between the two.

The U.S. credibility chasm on climate change

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

The biggest hurdle for President Biden in winning new emissions reduction commitments at this week's White House summit is America's on-again, off-again history of climate change efforts.

Why it matters: The global community is off course to meet the temperature targets contained in the Paris Climate Agreement. The White House wants the summit Thursday and Friday to begin to change that.