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Data: The COVID Tracking Project, state health departments; Map: Andrew Witherspoon, Danielle Alberti, Sara Wise/Axios

Coronavirus infections in the U.S. are beginning to decline, after a summer of sharp increases, and some of the hardest-hit states are improving significantly.

Yes, but: We're at the stage of this most recent outbreak in which deaths begin to spike. They're closing in on 150,000 and still rising.

Between the lines: Each week, Axios maps the change in new infections compared to the week before, using a seven-day average to minimize distortions.

By the numbers: This week, the U.S. overall saw a 2.8% drop in new infections — within the range we classify as "holding steady."

  • An average of 64,448 people were officially diagnosed with COVID-19 infections every day last week.

Two of the worst hotspots in the country, Arizona and Texas, experienced more significant declines in their caseloads: 16% and 21%, respectively.

  • Arizona has been getting better for a few weeks now, and though Texas still has a long way to go to make up for the spikes it saw in June and early July, it may be beginning to turn things around.
  • But California and Florida — the other major summer hotspots — have shown little improvement after weeks of deterioration.

What's next: With deaths still on the rise, cases holding steady at close to 65,000 per day and testing unable to keep up with demand, the U.S. is still in a bad place, and still lacks a coherent strategy to contain the virus.

  • But, for now at least, the virus' spread is holding steady overall, rather than continuing to accelerate.

Go deeper

Sep 28, 2020 - World

India's coronavirus cases top 6 million

A health worker checks vitals of a coronavirus patient inside the Commonwealth Games Village Covid Care Centre, in New Delhi, India, on Sunday. Photo: Sanjeev Verma/Hindustan Times via Getty Images

India's Ministry of Health confirmed the country's coronavirus case numbers surpassed 6 million on Monday after reporting 82,170 new infections in 24 hours.

Why it matters: India is the second country after the U.S. to hit 6 million cases. The South Asian country's COVID-19 tally hit 5 million on Sept. 16 and 4 million on Sept. 4. The ministry said that over 5 million Indian residents have recovered from the virus. But, AP notes, "New infections in India are currently being reported faster than anywhere else in the world."

Editor's note: This article has been updated with new details throughout.

Updated 4 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 3 a.m. ET: 33,362,341 — Total deaths: 1,001,800 — Total recoveries: 23,153,572Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 3 a.m. ET: 7,149,073 — Total deaths: 205,069 — Total recoveries: 2,794,608 — Total tests: 102,342,416Map.
  3. Business: Companies are still holding back earnings guidance.
  4. Health: Trump announces plan to distribute 150 million rapid tests —The childless vaccine.
  5. Media: Fauci: Some of what Fox News reports about COVID-19 is "outlandish"
  6. States: Cuomo extends New York moratorium on evictions until 2021.
  7. World: More than 1 million people have now died from coronavirus — India the second country after U.S. to hit 6 million cases.
Updated Sep 28, 2020 - Health

World coronavirus updates

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Data: The Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins; Map: Axios Visuals

India became on Monday the second country after the U.S. to surpass 6 million cases.

By the numbers: Globally, nearly 997,800 people have died from COVID-19 and over 33 million have tested positive, Johns Hopkins data shows.