Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

The massive stimulus that U.S. policymakers flooded into the economy is starting to run dry. With some states just beginning to reopen businesses and millions still unemployed, fiscal and monetary authorities are gearing up for another round.

What's happening: As various "stay at home" measures are being lifted, so are many of the relief measures put in place to help the U.S. economy through the unprecedented coronavirus-induced shock.

  • First, the group of small businesses that received $350 billion for the original eight-week term under the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) will exhaust those funds over the next few weeks.
  • The extra $600 per week in jobless benefits Congress approved in March expires at the end of July.
  • The last of the $1,200 relief payments sent to millions of Americans as part of the CARES Act are trickling out now.
  • Eviction moratoriums are starting to expire in states, which will allow landlords to remove struggling residential and business tenants.
  • Corporate tenants may face increased pressure from landlords given the strong stock market and extreme level of debt taken on by many businesses that will put them in position to take advantage of attractive vacancies.

Where it stands: As in March, the Fed is taking action early, announcing last week it planned to keep U.S. interest rates near zero through 2022 and continue purchases of about $80 billion per month of U.S. Treasuries and $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities.

  • Experts predict the Fed's balance sheet could rise to $10 trillion by year-end, up from its current level at just over $7 trillion and more than double where it started the year at under $4.5 trillion.
  • The Fed also announced it would start buying individual corporate bonds through its Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility in addition to ETFs and opened up its $600 billion Main Street Lending Program on Monday.

Why you'll hear about this again: U.S. economic analysts at Goldman Sachs expect Congress to "enact another $1.5 trillion (7% of GDP) in fiscal measures" in addition to the estimated $3.5 trillion so far. But some are starting to worry that lawmakers in Washington D.C. won't do their part.

  • "We see risks of implementation and policy exhaustion," strategists at the BlackRock Investment Institute said in a recent note to clients.
  • "Next rounds of U.S. fiscal stimulus look harder to achieve because of a return of political polarization after a short window of bipartisanship."

What they're saying: National Economic Council director Larry Kudlow said in an interview with CNN that the White House wants the additional $600 per week in unemployment pay to end next month.

  • President Trump is considering a “panoply of ideas” for new economic stimulus that would be worked on after the July Congressional recess period, Kudlow added.

Go deeper: Fed chair: "There's no limit" to coronavirus stimulus response

Go deeper

Updated Oct 7, 2020 - Health

World coronavirus updates

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Data: The Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins; Map: Axios Visuals

New Zealand now has active no coronavirus cases in the community after the final six people linked to the Auckland cluster recovered, the country's Health Ministry confirmed in an email Wednesday.

The big picture: The country's second outbreak won't officially be declared closed until there have been "no new cases for two incubation periods," the ministry said. Auckland will join the rest of NZ in enjoying no domestic restrictions from late Wednesday, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said, declaring that NZ had "beat the virus again."

Sep 23, 2020 - Health

CDC director says over 90% of Americans have not yet been exposed to coronavirus

CDC Director Robert Redfield said at a Senate hearing Wednesday that preliminary data shows that over 90% of Americans remain susceptible to COVID-19 — meaning they have not yet been exposed to the coronavirus.

Why it matters: The U.S. surpassed 200,000 coronavirus deaths this week — the most recorded in the world — and over 6.8 million Americans have contracted the virus so far.

Coronavirus cases rise in 22 states

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Data: The COVID Tracking Project, state health departments; Note: Texas added a backlog of cases on Sept. 22, removing that from the 7-day average Texas' cases increased 28.3%; Map: Andrew Witherspoon, Sara Wise/Axios

The coronavirus is surging once again across the U.S., with cases rising in 22 states over the past week.

The big picture: There isn't one big event or sudden occurrence that explains this increase. We simply have never done a very good job containing the virus, despite losing 200,000 lives in just the past six months, and this is what that persistent failure looks like.