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Expand chart
Data: The COVID Tracking Project, state health departments; Note: After a database error, Missouri has not reported cases since Oct. 10; Map: Andrew Witherspoon, Sara Wise/Axios

Coronavirus infections jumped by almost 17% over the past week as the number of new cases increased in 38 states and Washington, D.C.

Why it matters: The U.S. is headed solidly in the wrong direction — and at a dangerous time, as experts say the fall and winter will likely make the pandemic worse. They had hoped we could get cases under control before then, but that seems unrealistic.

By the numbers: The U.S. racked up an average of up 51,000 new cases per day over the past week.

  • The number of new infections rose in 38 states, spanning every region of the country.
  • Three states — Montana, New Mexico and South Dakota — saw their case counts rise by over 50%.
  • The pace of new infections slowed down in only one state: Texas.

Testing also increased over the past week.

  • The U.S. is now conducting roughly 1 million tests per day, up about 6% from the week before.
  • But the increase in cases is bigger than the increase in testing, which is a sign of an actual worsening outbreak.

The big picture: The U.S. has consistently failed to control the virus, and we are failing to control it now.

  • Experts say the fall and winter will likely make things worse, as colder weather causes people to move their socializing indoors, where the virus can spread more easily. If those assumptions bear out, those increases will come on top of a caseload that's already too high.

How it works: Each week, Axios tracks the change in new infections in each state. We use a seven-day average to minimize the effects of day-to-day discrepancies in states’ reporting.

Go deeper

Updated 10 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

  1. Health: The good and bad news about antibody therapies — Fauci: Hotspots have materialized across "the entire country."
  2. World: Belgium imposes lockdown, citing "health emergency" due to influx of cases.
  3. Economy: Conference Board predicts economy won’t fully recover until late 2021.
  4. Education: Surge threatens to shut classrooms down again.
  5. Technology: The pandemic isn't slowing tech.
  6. Travel: CDC replaces COVID-19 cruise ban with less restrictive "conditional sailing order."
  7. Sports: High school football's pandemic struggles.
  8. 🎧Podcast: The vaccine race turns toward nationalism.
16 hours ago - World

Belgium imposes lockdown, citing "health emergency" due to influx of COVID-19 cases

Belgium Prime Minister Alexander De Croo. Photo: THIERRY ROGE/BELGA MAG/AFP via Getty Images

Belgium is enforcing a strict lockdown starting Sunday amid rising coronavirus infections, hospital admissions and a surge of deaths, Prime Minister Alexander De Croo announced on Friday.

Why it matters: De Croo said the government saw no choice but to lock down "to ensure that our health care system does not collapse." Scientists and health officials said deaths have doubled every six days, per the Guardian.

Conference Board predicts economy won’t fully recover until late 2021

Axios Today host Niala Boodhoo (left) and The Conference Board chief economist Dana Peterson. Photo: Axios

The economy will not return to the "pre-pandemic level of activity" until the fourth quarter of 2021, the chief economist at the Conference Board, Dana Peterson, said in an Axios virtual event on Friday, foreseeing "many more quarters of weakness."

Why it matters: Peterson said the economy's recovery will depend on governments reopening businesses and "allowing mobility both internally and externally," as well as on the handling of the coronavirus pandemic.