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Photos: Sean Rayford/Getty Images; Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

The Cook Political Report on Thursday changed its forecast of Arizona in the presidential race from "toss up" to "lean Democrat," citing new polling data that shows the Sun Belt state slipping away from President Trump.

Why it matters: The rating in a crucial swing state doesn't bode well for President Trump's re-election chances. He won the state by more than 3 points in 2016.

The state of play: Trump's performance in the state is largely driven by changing attitudes in Maricopa County, surrounding Phoenix, where about two-thirds of the state's voters come from, according to Cook.

  • "Voters there, as in other suburban areas in and around big metro areas, have soured on Pres. Trump," Cook writes.
  • Cook cited FiveThirtyEight's average of recent polls, which has Biden's lead in the state at 4.3 points.
  • Trump is struggling with the all-important Latino vote in the state, garnering just 17% support compared with Joe Biden's 55%, according to a Cook survey out this week.

Worth noting: Two of the Trump's most vocal Republican critics, former Sens. John McCain and Jeff Flake, served in the Senate from Arizona.

  • Only 73% of Arizona Republicans say they will definitely vote for Trump, with 9% saying they are probably or definitely voting for Joe Biden, according to the Cook survey.

Go deeper: Cook says Biden has Electoral College edge

Go deeper

Updated Dec 15, 2020 - Politics & Policy

McConnell congratulates Joe Biden on becoming president-elect

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) officially addressed Joe Biden as president-elect on Tuesday, saying in a speech on the Senate floor: "The Electoral College has spoken."

Why it matters: McConnell is the most prominent Republican to concede that President Trump lost the November election and congratulate Biden on his victory.

Georgia's early voting starts with heavy turnout

Voters wait in line to vote at the Buckhead Library in Atlanta on the first day of in-person early voting for the Georgia Senate runoff election. Photo: Jason Armond/Getty Images

Georgia's on an early path to a huge turnout in the two runoffs to decide control of the U.S. Senate, according to data from the Georgia Secretary of State's Office crunched by Axios.

By the numbers: Voters cast 482,000 ballots in roughly the first day and a half of early voting this week. That’s equivalent to one-third of the total in the last statewide general election runoff, held in 2018, and about one-fourth of the total ballots in the last Senate runoff, held in 2008.

White House unveils plans for high-profile climate summit

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

The Biden administration offered new details this morning about the big, virtual climate summit Thursday and Friday and signaled they expect new emissions reduction and climate finance commitments from multiple countries.

Driving the news: The administration said 40 heads of state would attend, including Russian President Vladimir Putin and President Jair Bolsonaro of Brazil.