Sign up for our daily briefing
Make your busy days simpler with Axios AM/PM. Catch up on what's new and why it matters in just 5 minutes.
Catch up on the day's biggest business stories
Subscribe to Axios Closer for insights into the day’s business news and trends and why they matter
Stay on top of the latest market trends
Subscribe to Axios Markets for the latest market trends and economic insights. Sign up for free.
Sports news worthy of your time
Binge on the stats and stories that drive the sports world with Axios Sports. Sign up for free.
Tech news worthy of your time
Get our smart take on technology from the Valley and D.C. with Axios Login. Sign up for free.
Get the inside stories
Get an insider's guide to the new White House with Axios Sneak Peek. Sign up for free.
Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday
Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday
Want a daily digest of the top Denver news?
Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Denver
Want a daily digest of the top Des Moines news?
Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Des Moines
Want a daily digest of the top Twin Cities news?
Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Twin Cities
Want a daily digest of the top Tampa Bay news?
Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Tampa Bay
Want a daily digest of the top Charlotte news?
Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Charlotte
Photos: Sean Rayford/Getty Images; Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
The Cook Political Report on Thursday changed its forecast of Arizona in the presidential race from "toss up" to "lean Democrat," citing new polling data that shows the Sun Belt state slipping away from President Trump.
Why it matters: The rating in a crucial swing state doesn't bode well for President Trump's re-election chances. He won the state by more than 3 points in 2016.
The state of play: Trump's performance in the state is largely driven by changing attitudes in Maricopa County, surrounding Phoenix, where about two-thirds of the state's voters come from, according to Cook.
- "Voters there, as in other suburban areas in and around big metro areas, have soured on Pres. Trump," Cook writes.
- Cook cited FiveThirtyEight's average of recent polls, which has Biden's lead in the state at 4.3 points.
- Trump is struggling with the all-important Latino vote in the state, garnering just 17% support compared with Joe Biden's 55%, according to a Cook survey out this week.
Worth noting: Two of the Trump's most vocal Republican critics, former Sens. John McCain and Jeff Flake, served in the Senate from Arizona.
- Only 73% of Arizona Republicans say they will definitely vote for Trump, with 9% saying they are probably or definitely voting for Joe Biden, according to the Cook survey.
Go deeper: Cook says Biden has Electoral College edge