Apr 17, 2018

The districts that worry House GOP leadership the most

Photo: L.E. Baskow/AFP via Getty Images

The Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC endorsed by House Republican leadership, announced it will be spending $48 million on initial ad reservations in 30 competitive congressional districts for the fall 0f 2018 — the first outside conservative group to do so ahead of the midterms.

The bottom line: This is a huge ad spend for an outside group so early on in the election cycle, and the 30 districts targeted reveal which areas across the country that House Republican leadership are most concerned about come November. Most of the targeted districts align with the Cook Political Report's "Republican Toss-Up" rating.

Between the lines: CLF is running ads in several districts across the country where incumbent House Republicans are hoping to retain their seats in districts Hillary Clinton won in 2016.

  • But what's more interesting to note: Some of the targeted districts are in places that didn't lean blue in 2016 and aren't currently considered toss-ups by Cook — especially in traditionally Republican-leaning states like Texas, Kansas, and Kentucky.
By the numbers
  • For comparison: In the last election cycle, CLF announced its first reservation of $10 million in August 2016.

Television Reservations: CLF is spending $38 million in 20 districts. Here are the six districts with the most money being spent:

*Indicates a district Clinton won in 2016

  • MN-08 (Open), $2.6 million 
  • *TX-07 (Culberson), $2.45 million (TU)
  • *CA-10 (Denham), $2.35 million (TU)
  • *MN-03 (Paulsen), $2.3 million (TU)
  • *CA-45 (Walters), $2.3 million
  • *CO-06 (Coffman), $2.3 million (TU)

Digital Spending: CLF is spending $10 million in 30 Districts.

*CA-10 (Denham); *CA-21 (Valadao); *CA-25 (Knight); *CA-45 (Walters); *CO-06 (Coffman); FL-18 (Mast); FL-26 (Curbelo); IA-01 (Blum); *IL-06 (Roskam); IL-12 (Bost); KS-02 (Open); *KS-03 (Yoder); KY-06 (Barr); ME-02 (Poliquin); MI-08 (Bishop); *MN-03 (Paulsen); MN-08 (Open); NC-13 (Budd); NE-02 (Bacon); NJ-03 (MacArthur); *NJ-07 (Lance); NY-22 (Tenney); *NY-24 (Katko); PA-01 (Fitzpatrick); PA-17 (Rothfus); *TX-07 (Culberson); TX-23 (Hurd); VA-02 (Taylor); WA-05 (McMorris Rodgers); *WA-08 (Open)

Worth noting: The launch also comes less than a week after Speaker Paul Ryan announced he is not running for reelection, a move that has added to concerns that House Republicans may be facing a wave against them this fall.

Editor's note: This post has been corrected to note that CLF is targeting 30 congressional districts, not 50.

Go deeper

Older candidates take the lead on social media

Illustration: Eniola Odetunde/Axios

Michael Bloomberg, Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden — all close to 80 — are pushing the boundaries on social media, while their younger Democratic presidential rivals are comparatively staying out of the fray.

The big picture: President Trump's unexpected rise to political power has shown Democrats and world leaders the power of harnessing popular internet culture to get elected.

South Korea and Italy step up emergency measures as coronavirus cases jump

Data: The Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins, the CDC, and China's Health Ministry. Note: China numbers are for the mainland only and U.S. numbers include repatriated citizens.

The novel coronavirus has spread to more nations as South Korea and Italy step up emergency measures in their countries amid rising case numbers on Sunday.

The big picture: COVID-19 has killed at least 2,462 people and infected almost 79,000 others, mostly in mainland China. South Korea increased the infectious disease alert to red, the highest possible, as its case numbers jumped to 602 and the death toll to five. Italy's government announced emergency measures, with several towns in the north effectively placed in lockdown, as it confirmed two deaths and infections rose to 79.

Go deeperArrowUpdated 4 hours ago - Health

Bernie Sanders wins Nevada caucus

Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders waves to supporters at a campaign rally on Friday in Las Vegas. Photo: Mario Tama/Getty Images

Sen. Bernie Sanders is projected to handily win the Nevada Democratic primary caucus, becoming the clear frontrunner among 2020 Democratic presidential primary election candidates.

Why it matters: Nevada is the first state with a diverse population to hold a nominating contest, highlighting candidates' abilities to connect with voters of color — particularly Latino voters.

Go deeperArrowUpdated 4 hours ago - Politics & Policy