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Warren and Biden during a primary debate in Los Angeles in December. Photo: Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

Even as the protests over the killing of George Floyd have upped the urgency for Joe Biden to select a black running mate, college students are favoring Sen. Elizabeth Warren, according to a new College Reaction/Axios poll.

Why it matters: The poll shows that progressive ideology is still a top consideration for young voters — though it also found that two African-American women, Sen. Kamala Harris and former Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams, had substantial support.

By the numbers:

  1. Warren - 28%
  2. Harris - 19%
  3. Abrams - 13%
  4. Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer - 11%
  5. Sen. Amy Klobuchar (since withdrawn from consideration) - 8%
  6. Former National Security Adviser Susan Rice - 7%
  7. Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms - 6%
  8. Sen. Tammy Duckworth - 4%
  9. New Mexico Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham - 2%
  10. Rep. Val Demings - 1%

Reality check: The protests of police brutality against African Americans have shifted the political calculus toward selecting a black nominee. Harris is the betting favorite, according to PredictIt, followed by Demings and Rice.

  • College students don't see it as an urgent factor: less than half of those surveyed selected a black candidate.

The coronavirus threat looms as a key factor for turnout: 12% of college students say they won't or probably won't vote in November if it must be in person. That drops to 6% if mail-in voting is an option.

  • That discrepancy applied across all age groups could mean a difference of millions of votes.

Methodology: The poll was conducted June 17-18 from a representative sample of 854 college students with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points.

College Reaction’s polling is conducted using a demographically representative panel of college students from around the country. The surveys are administered digitally and use college e-mail addresses as an authentication tool to ensure current enrollment in a four-year institution. The target for the general population sample was students currently enrolled in accredited 4-year institutions in the United States.

Go deeper

SurveyMonkey poll: Trump's Ohio bet

Data: SurveyMonkey survey of 3,092 Ohio voters, Sept. 1-25, 2020; Note: COVID-19 was a write-in option; Chart: Axios Visuals

President Trump leads Joe Biden 51%-47% among likely Ohio voters overall — but he holds a whopping 74%-24% lead with those who say a flagging economy and job concerns are their top issue, according to new SurveyMonkey-Tableau data for Axios.

Why it matters: Ohioans are more worried about their jobs than the coronavirus — and that's President Trump's best chance to cling to a narrow lead in this state he won handily in 2016.

Sep 28, 2020 - Politics & Policy

Cindy McCain joins board of Biden transition team

Photo: FilmMagic/FilmMagic for U.S.VETS

Cindy McCain, the wife of the late Sen. John McCain, has joined the board of Joe Biden's presidential transition team.

Why it matters: McCain, who endorsed Biden last week after allegations in The Atlantic that President Trump had denigrated members of the military, joins former Veterans Affairs Secretary Bob McDonald as the second registered Republican on the transition board.

Stalemate over filibuster freezes Congress

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Mitch McConnell's inability to quickly strike a deal on a power-sharing agreement in the new 50-50 Congress is slowing down everything from the confirmation of President Biden's nominees to Donald Trump's impeachment trial.

Why it matters: Whatever final stance Schumer takes on the stalemate, which largely comes down to Democrats wanting to use the legislative filibuster as leverage over Republicans, will be a signal of the level of hardball we should expect Democrats to play with Republicans in the new Senate.

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