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Illustration: Eniola Odetunde/Axios

As the coronavirus pandemic pushes more and more universities to switch to remote learning — at least to start — 22% of college students across all four years are planning not to enroll this fall, according to a new College Reaction/Axios poll.

Why it matters: Scores of colleges were already approaching a financial cliff before the pandemic began. Steep drops in enrollment could push some over the edge.

Students are making alternative plans for the fall.

  • Of those not returning to school, most — 73% — are working full time. Around 4% are taking classes at a different university, and 2% are doing volunteer work.
  • Freshmen who are unwilling to sacrifice the experience of a normal first year of college appear to account for a big chunk of those who are planning not to enroll this fall. Harvard, which is going fully remote, says 20% of the students in its incoming freshman class are deferring.
  • Students also recognize the risk. 85% believe they are likely (or very likely) to be exposed to the coronavirus if they're on campus this fall.

Some colleges are planning to welcome students back. And those kids are preparing for a very different college experience.

  • No more dorm life: Of the students returning to a campus, 56% are living off-campus, 7% are in single dorms and 9% are in doubles. Many universities are limiting dorm capacities.
  • Party police: A clear majority — 58% — of students say they will not tell the school if they see a peer violate campus safety protocol.
  • Tailgating is over: 77% say their school shouldn't participate in football and other sports this fall.

Methodology: The poll was conducted August 16-17 from a representative sample of 798 college students with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points.

College Reaction’s polling is conducted using a demographically representative panel of college students from around the country. The surveys are administered digitally and use college e-mail addresses as an authentication tool to ensure current enrollment in a four-year institution. The target for the general population sample was students currently enrolled in accredited 4-year institutions in the United States.

Editor's note: This story has been corrected to indicate that 58% of students say that will not report COVID-19 policy violations.

Go deeper

Nov 24, 2020 - Health

Axios-Ipsos poll: COVID Thanksgiving

Data: Ipsos/Axios survey; Chart: Axios Visuals

Six in 10 Americans are dialing back this year's Thanksgiving plans because of the pandemic — cutting guest lists, canceling travel or scrapping Turkey Day altogether — in the latest installment of the Axios/Ipsos Coronavirus Index.

The big picture: This greater willingness to turn inward and exercise caution around the holidays comes amid signs of increased trust in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and a growing confidence there will soon be a safe and effective vaccine available in the U.S.

10 hours ago - World

Maximum pressure campaign escalates with Fakhrizadeh killing

Photo: Fars News Agency via AP

The assassination of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, the architect of Iran’s military nuclear program, is a new height in the maximum pressure campaign led by the Trump administration and the Netanyahu government against Iran.

Why it matters: It exceeds the capture of the Iranian nuclear archives by the Mossad, and the sabotage in the advanced centrifuge facility in Natanz.

Scoop: Biden weighs retired General Lloyd Austin for Pentagon chief

Lloyd Austin testifying before Congress in 2015. Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Joe Biden is considering retired four-star General Lloyd Austin as his nominee for defense secretary, adding him to a shortlist that includes Jeh Johnson, Tammy Duckworth and Michele Flournoy, two sources with direct knowledge of the decision-making tell Axios.

Why it matters: A nominee for Pentagon chief was noticeably absent when the president-elect rolled out his national security team Tuesday. Flournoy had been widely seen as the likely pick, but Axios is told other factors — race, experience, Biden's comfort level — have come into play.

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