Sign up for our daily briefing

Make your busy days simpler with Axios AM/PM. Catch up on what's new and why it matters in just 5 minutes.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Catch up on the day's biggest business stories

Subscribe to Axios Closer for insights into the day’s business news and trends and why they matter

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Stay on top of the latest market trends

Subscribe to Axios Markets for the latest market trends and economic insights. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Sports news worthy of your time

Binge on the stats and stories that drive the sports world with Axios Sports. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Tech news worthy of your time

Get our smart take on technology from the Valley and D.C. with Axios Login. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Get the inside stories

Get an insider's guide to the new White House with Axios Sneak Peek. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Denver news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Denver

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Des Moines news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Des Moines

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Twin Cities news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Twin Cities

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Tampa Bay news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Tampa Bay

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Charlotte news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Charlotte

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Sign up for Axios NW Arkansas

Stay up-to-date on the most important and interesting stories affecting NW Arkansas, authored by local reporters

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

The longer the Robert Mueller investigation drags on, the more we're told by President Trump's supporters that Mueller's focusing on the wrong target, because the real collusion on Russia was by the Clintons.

Between the lines: It's easy to dismiss the talk as a distraction, since Hillary Clinton isn't president and has no power. But the real question is whether the talk would deserve more attention if she had won. And the answer is, one broad storyline — foreign donations to the Clinton Foundation — would certainly be getting a closer look. The rest falls apart under scrutiny.

The "Clinton collusion" talk usually focuses on two claims:

1) The dossier

In this case, the alleged "collusion" means Hillary Clinton "colluded with the Russians to get dirt on Trump to feed it to the FBI to open up an investigation into the other campaign," as House Intelligence Committee chairman Devin Nunes put it in this Washington Post fact check

  • Here's how they connect the dots: Because a lawyer representing Clinton and the DNC hired Fusion GPS to create the dossier — and former British spy Christopher Steele talked to Russian sources in preparing it — the "collusion" with those Russian sources allowed the preparation of a dossier that was later used by the FBI to help get the court order for surveillance of former Trump campaign adviser Carter Page.
  • That's the gist of the Nunes memo. The FBI said it had "grave concerns" about the memo's accuracy, and the Democratic response to the Nunes memo said the FBI had other reasons to suspect Page was helping Russian intelligence.
  • This "collusion" theory has also been spread on cable news. Sean Hannity has charged that Hillary Clinton "bought and paid for" the dossier, and talk show host Mark Levin told Hannity that Clinton "paid for a warrant."

The bottom line: WashPo concluded there was no evidence that Clinton was either involved in Steele's work or worked with those Russian sources, and gave Nunes "four Pinocchios." It's also in dispute that the dossier led directly to the surveillance of Page.

What to watch: This theory will remain stalled out unless there are new developments that tie Clinton to the dossier more directly than we've seen, or any new evidence that the surveillance of Page would not have happened without the dossier.

2) The Clinton Foundation

In this case, "collusion" means the foundation allegedly took money from Russian interests or their allies in exchange for Clinton's actions as secretary of state. The Uranium One deal — which gave Russia a financial stake in uranium production — is part of this list, but not the only example. (Here's a good rundown by National Review.)

The bottom line: This is a better example of an issue that would be getting more attention if Clinton had won. News organizations were already sniffing around during the campaign.

  • But it's better understood as potentially shady ethics and possible conflicts of interest, rather than the kind of "collusion" where a U.S. candidate and a foreign government were working together toward a common goal.
  • And the Uranium One dealanother frequent Hannity topic — depends on a chain of connections that may not hold up under thorough investigation, since the deal was approved by nine government agencies and there's no evidence that Clinton knew about it, as Shepard Smith of Fox News has pointed out.

What to watch: The FBI has reopened an investigation into the Clinton Foundation donations, so there will be another round of coverage whenever it releases its results. But the attention will only last if there's evidence that Clinton took official actions based on those donations.

Go deeper:

The big questions surrounding the Trump-Russia dossier

Facts Matter: Background on the U.S.-Russia uranium deal

Go deeper

6 hours ago - Health

FDA advisory panel recommends Pfizer boosters for those 65 and older

A healthcare worker prepares a dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine at the Key Biscayne Community Center on Aug. 24, 2021. Photo: Eva Marie Uzcategui/Bloomberg via Getty Images

A key Food and Drug Administration advisory panel on Friday overwhelmingly voted against recommending Pfizer vaccine booster shots for younger Americans, but unanimously recommended approving the third shots for individuals 65 and older, as well as those at high-risk of severe COVID-19.

Why it matters: While the votes are non-binding, and the FDA must still make a final decision, Friday's move pours cold water on the Biden administration's plan to begin administering boosters to most individuals who received the Pfizer vaccine later this month.

6 hours ago - World

France recalls ambassadors from U.S. and Australia over submarine deal

Secretary of State Antony Blinken (L), French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian (C), and French ambassador to the U.S. Philippe Etienne. Photo: Nicholas Kamm/AFP via Getty Images

France has taken the extraordinary step of recalling its ambassadors to the U.S. and Australia after both countries blindsided their French allies with a new military pact and submarine contract, the French Foreign Ministry announced on Friday.

The backstory: While sealing an agreement with the U.S. and U.K. to acquire nuclear submarines, Australia ripped up an existing $90 billion submarine deal with France. That led senior French officials to accuse the U.S. of a "stab in the back."

Updated 7 hours ago - World

In reversal, Pentagon now says drone strike killed 10 Afghan civilians

Caskets for the dead are carried towards the gravesite as relatives and friends attend a mass funeral for members of a family that is said to have been killed in a U.S. drone airstrike, in Kabul on Aug. 30. Photo: Marcus Yam/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images

A U.S. drone strike launched on Aug. 29 killed 10 civilians in Afghanistan, including seven children, rather than the Islamic State extremists the Biden administration claimed it targeted, the Pentagon said Friday.

Why it matters: U.S. Central Command said at the time that officials "know" the drone strike "disrupted an imminent ISIS-K threat" to Kabul's airport, and that they were "confident we successfully hit the target."