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David Zalubowski / AP

Unless Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell can change some of his members' minds pretty quickly, it's looking like he might not have the 50 votes he'd need for a procedural motion that would bring his health care bill to the floor. The CBO's estimate that 22 million more people would be uninsured under the Senate bill was a steep — and maybe fatal — setback.

The proof: Sen. Susan Collins tweeted that she'll vote against the procedural motion to bring up the bill on Wednesday. Others have been making noise, too. If enough Republicans vote against it, the whole effort could end right there.

What the senators are saying:

  • "CBO says 22 million people lose insurance; Medicaid cuts hurt most vulnerable Americans; access to healthcare in rural areas threatened." — Collins' tweet
  • "I'm not voting to get on it unless it changes before we get to it." — Rand Paul, per The Hill
  • "I have a hard time believing I will have enough information to support a motion to proceed this week." — Ron Johnson, to reporters
  • "Today I don't have enough information, I don't have enough data in terms of the impact to my states to be able to vote in the affirmative." — Lisa Murkowski, on CNN
  • "In this form, I will not support it." — Dean Heller, at Friday press conference

Who else to watch: Shelley Moore Capito, who said Medicaid "obviously is the area of greatest concern for me," per Caitlin Owens. Rob Portman, who hasn't said how he'd vote. And, of course, the conservative holdouts: Ted Cruz and Mike Lee.

Yes, but: Thanks to the CBO's estimates about the bill's deficit reduction, McConnell has about $200 billion he can spend to add funding to appease various Republican holdouts — like Capito, Portman, and Cory Gardner, who are holding out for more opioid treatment funding. "It's beginning to look a lot like Christmas," one GOP aide told Caitlin.

"Deficit reduction number gives McConnell the flexibility he needs to get the bill across the finish line," said Stanford's Lanhee Chen, a member of the Axios board of experts. "That's what matters."

Go deeper

Schumer's m(aj)ority checklist

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. Photo: Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images

Capitalizing on the Georgia runoffs, achieving a 50-50 Senate and launching an impeachment trial are weighty to-dos for getting Joe Biden's administration up and running on Day One.

What to watch: A blend of ceremonies, hearings and legal timelines will come into play on Tuesday and Wednesday so Chuck Schumer can actually claim the Senate majority and propel the new president's agenda.

The dark new reality in Congress

National Guard troops keep watch at security fencing. Photo: Kent Nishimura/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images

This is how bad things are for elected officials and others working in a post-insurrection Congress:

  • Rep. Norma Torres (D-Calif.) said she had a panic attack while grocery shopping back home.
  • Rep. Jim McGovern (D-Mass.) said police may also have to be at his constituent meetings.
  • Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.) told a podcaster he brought a gun to his office on Capitol Hill on Jan. 6 because he anticipated trouble with the proceedings that day.
Off the Rails

Episode 3: Descent into madness ... Trump: "Sometimes you need a little crazy"

Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photos: Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Beginning on election night 2020 and continuing through his final days in office, Donald Trump unraveled and dragged America with him, to the point that his followers sacked the U.S. Capitol with two weeks left in his term. This Axios series takes you inside the collapse of a president.

Episode 3: The conspiracy goes too far. Trump's outside lawyers plot to seize voting machines and spin theories about communists, spies and computer software.

President Trump was sitting in the Oval Office one day in late November when a call came in from lawyer Sidney Powell. "Ugh, Sidney," he told the staff in the room before he picked up. "She's getting a little crazy, isn't she? She's really gotta tone it down. No one believes this stuff. It's just too much."