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Rep. Kurt Schrader (D-Ore.) Photo: Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call

The Congressional Budget Office estimated Democrats' social spending bill would add no more than $367 billion to the deficit over 10 years, an assessment expected to pave the way for its passage by the House.

The latest: The White House said in a statement after the CBO report that it had updated its own estimates and now believed the package would actually reduce the deficit by $112 billion over a decade. 

Between the lines: The CBO's estimates in a summary released Thursday evening did not count revenue offsets from an IRS funding provision, which could reduce the deficit hit to $160 billion.

  • According to the CBO, $80 billion in funding for the IRS would raise $207 billion in tax revenue, thus cutting the deficit by $127 billion over 10 years.
  • That is at odds with a White House budget estimate that says the IRS funding would cut the deficit by $400 billion, which would make the bill fully paid for.

Why it matters: A handful of moderate House Democrats who have been holdouts on the bill struck a deal with progressives earlier this month to vote for the package if the CBO score is in line with expectations.

  • "If the score is what the White House and [Joint Committee on Taxation] had, we're good," Rep. Kurt Schrader (D-Ore.) told Axios on Tuesday. "There's a little leeway, but it has to be pretty much what they said."

What they're saying: Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), the chair of the Senate Finance Committee, contends that the CBO is severely lowballing the amount of revenue that package will raise from curbing tax avoidance.

  • Wyden, in a statement, said even the White House's estimate of $400 billion in deficit reduction is "if anything... too conservative, not too aggressive."

Editor's note: This article has been updated with comment from the White House.

Go deeper

Updated Nov 25, 2021 - Technology

Congress decimates 911's digital upgrade

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

Public safety officials fear the nation's 911 centers will continue to languish in the analog era, after Democrats slashed proposed funding for a digital makeover in their social spending bill.

Why it matters: The potentially life-saving ability for people to send texts, pictures or videos to 911 centers, and for centers to seamlessly share data with each other, remains out of reach for many of the country’s 6,000 centers.

Updated 21 mins ago - Health

Massage, facial, pedicure... intravenous drip?

A salon on the Upper East Side of New York that offers IV drip therapies. Photo: Jennifer A. Kingson/Axios

IV drips — the kind you might get if you're rushed to the hospital — are trending as a spa treatment, thanks in part to endorsements by celebrities like Kim Kardashian and Madonna.

Why it matters: Like other "wellness" trends with a whiff of medical imprimatur, IV nutrient drips can be harmless or mildly restorative — or go awry, particularly in the wrong hands.

U.S. sounds alarm on Ukraine

Conscripts line up at a Russian railway station yesterday before departing for Army service. Photo: Sergei Malgavko/TASS via Getty Images

The Biden administration is "deeply concerned" by new intelligence — detailed for Axios and other outlets — showing Russia stepping up preparations to invade Ukraine as soon as early 2022.

Why it matters: Most of this was known from public sources and satellite imagery, but the administration is sending a stronger signal by releasing specific details from the intelligence community.