Sign up for our daily briefing

Make your busy days simpler with Axios AM/PM. Catch up on what's new and why it matters in just 5 minutes.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Stay on top of the latest market trends

Subscribe to Axios Markets for the latest market trends and economic insights. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Sports news worthy of your time

Binge on the stats and stories that drive the sports world with Axios Sports. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Tech news worthy of your time

Get our smart take on technology from the Valley and D.C. with Axios Login. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Get the inside stories

Get an insider's guide to the new White House with Axios Sneak Peek. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Denver news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Denver

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Des Moines news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Des Moines

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Twin Cities news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Twin Cities

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Tampa Bay news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Tampa Bay

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Charlotte news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Charlotte

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!
Data: U.S. Department of Labor; Note: Initial traditional state claims from the weeks of May 23 and 30, continuing traditional claims from May 23. Initial PUA claims from May 16, 23, and 30, continuing PUA and other programs from May 16; Chart: Andrew Witherspoon/Axios

The shocking May jobs report — with a decline in the unemployment rate to 13.3% and more than 2 million jobs added — destroyed expectations of a much worse economic picture.

Why it matters: Traditional economic reports have failed to keep up with the devastation of the coronavirus pandemic and have made it nearly impossible for researchers to determine the state of the U.S. labor market or the economy.

  • Data shows more than 37 million have applied for or are receiving some form of unemployment benefits as of May 30, meaning the unemployment rate was likely significantly higher.

How it works: The Labor Department’s surveys capture the period through the 12th day of the month, excluding job losses after that date. To calculate a closer estimate of U.S. unemployment Axios added...

  • The Labor Department's continuing jobless claims up to May 23.
  • Continuing claims for the newly created Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) program through May 16.
  • Initial claims for both programs during those periods.
  • Other unemployment programs, including newly discharged veterans and the Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation program.

The big picture: Even these more comprehensive estimates likely miss the mark, as not every state is providing PUA figures.

  • Plus, there remains an unknown number of people who have either not applied for unemployment benefits, have tried and failed, or who have applied but have not had claims processed yet.

What it means: While it's likely many Americans have returned to work, the increase in initial claims and consistently high level of continuing claims suggest the problem did not improve in the back half of May after many states began removing "stay at home" orders.

The state of play: A survey of more than 88,000 small businesses by online business network Alignable from May 23–25 found 68% are open now, but 28% were offering fewer products or services.

  • 3% of firms surveyed said they had closed permanently.
  • Less than 50% of customers have returned, firms say.
  • Only 47% employees are back on payrolls, with 7% more expected to be hired by the end of June.

What they're saying: Some business owners said they were "bleeding slowly" with increased operating costs for social distancing measures, masks and PPE for staff along with decreasing revenue.

  • "We are thrilled that we are open again," Jane, a gallery owner in California, said in the survey. "We've had to reduce our open hours so that we can do cleaning. But we’re ready and excited to have customers."
  • "The wedding industry is almost non-existent," Maxine, a bridal and event coordinator in Texas, said. "People are too afraid to celebrate."
Reproduced from Economic Policy Institute; Chart: Axios Visuals

Highlighting these difficulties, the Economic Policy Institute attempted to quantify the number of unemployed who were missed in the Labor Department's April jobs report.

  • This “adjusted” unemployment rate includes those who are officially counted as unemployed as well as what EPI senior economist Elise Gould calls the "misclassified" — those who reported that they were employed but not at work for other reasons, and those who had been employed but left the labor force when the virus hit and are not actively seeking work.
  • "Millions of would-be job seekers have left the labor force in the time of COVID-19 for various reasons, whether it’s because they don’t see any prospects in their occupation, they are not looking because they are concerned about their health or the health of members of their household, or they have to care for a child whose school or daycare closed."

Go deeper: Few jobs are safe as unemployment reaches Great Depression levels

Go deeper

Dion Rabouin, author of Markets
Sep 9, 2020 - Economy & Business

Small businesses are losing confidence in their survival

Data: Goldman Sachs; Chart: Axios Visuals

Small businesses have largely exhausted their federal funding and are starting to lay off workers, with many worrying about having to shut their doors for good, according to a new survey from Goldman Sachs provided exclusively to Axios.

Why it matters: Business still has not returned to normal, six months after the coronavirus pandemic first appeared in U.S. But small firms say the money they received from the Paycheck Protection Program has run dry.

2 hours ago - World

Iran rejects nuclear talks with U.S., for now

Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif at Iran/EU talks in 2015. Photo: Carlos Barria/POOL/AFP via Getty

A spokesman for Iran’s Foreign Ministry said on Sunday that conditions are not ripe for informal nuclear talks between Iran, the U.S. and other world powers.

Why it matters: The Biden administration had proposed the talks as part of its efforts to negotiate a path back to the 2015 nuclear deal. The White House expressed disappointment with Iran's response, but said it remained willing to engage with Tehran.

2 hours ago - Health

U.S. sets weekend records for daily COVID vaccinations

A driver waits to receive the Pfizer-BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine in Inglewood, California on Feb. 26. Photo: Eric Thayer/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Just over 2.4 million coronavirus vaccinations were reported to the CDC on Sunday, matching Saturday's record-high for inoculations as seen in Bloomberg's vaccine tracker.

Why it matters: Vaccinations are ramping up again after widespread delays caused by historic winter storms. Over 75 million vaccine doses have been administered thus far, with 7.5% of the population fully vaccinated and 15% having received at least one dose.