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Data: U.S. Department of Labor; Note: Initial traditional state claims from the weeks of May 23 and 30, continuing traditional claims from May 23. Initial PUA claims from May 16, 23, and 30, continuing PUA and other programs from May 16; Chart: Andrew Witherspoon/Axios

The shocking May jobs report — with a decline in the unemployment rate to 13.3% and more than 2 million jobs added — destroyed expectations of a much worse economic picture.

Why it matters: Traditional economic reports have failed to keep up with the devastation of the coronavirus pandemic and have made it nearly impossible for researchers to determine the state of the U.S. labor market or the economy.

  • Data shows more than 37 million have applied for or are receiving some form of unemployment benefits as of May 30, meaning the unemployment rate was likely significantly higher.

How it works: The Labor Department’s surveys capture the period through the 12th day of the month, excluding job losses after that date. To calculate a closer estimate of U.S. unemployment Axios added...

  • The Labor Department's continuing jobless claims up to May 23.
  • Continuing claims for the newly created Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) program through May 16.
  • Initial claims for both programs during those periods.
  • Other unemployment programs, including newly discharged veterans and the Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation program.

The big picture: Even these more comprehensive estimates likely miss the mark, as not every state is providing PUA figures.

  • Plus, there remains an unknown number of people who have either not applied for unemployment benefits, have tried and failed, or who have applied but have not had claims processed yet.

What it means: While it's likely many Americans have returned to work, the increase in initial claims and consistently high level of continuing claims suggest the problem did not improve in the back half of May after many states began removing "stay at home" orders.

The state of play: A survey of more than 88,000 small businesses by online business network Alignable from May 23–25 found 68% are open now, but 28% were offering fewer products or services.

  • 3% of firms surveyed said they had closed permanently.
  • Less than 50% of customers have returned, firms say.
  • Only 47% employees are back on payrolls, with 7% more expected to be hired by the end of June.

What they're saying: Some business owners said they were "bleeding slowly" with increased operating costs for social distancing measures, masks and PPE for staff along with decreasing revenue.

  • "We are thrilled that we are open again," Jane, a gallery owner in California, said in the survey. "We've had to reduce our open hours so that we can do cleaning. But we’re ready and excited to have customers."
  • "The wedding industry is almost non-existent," Maxine, a bridal and event coordinator in Texas, said. "People are too afraid to celebrate."
Reproduced from Economic Policy Institute; Chart: Axios Visuals

Highlighting these difficulties, the Economic Policy Institute attempted to quantify the number of unemployed who were missed in the Labor Department's April jobs report.

  • This “adjusted” unemployment rate includes those who are officially counted as unemployed as well as what EPI senior economist Elise Gould calls the "misclassified" — those who reported that they were employed but not at work for other reasons, and those who had been employed but left the labor force when the virus hit and are not actively seeking work.
  • "Millions of would-be job seekers have left the labor force in the time of COVID-19 for various reasons, whether it’s because they don’t see any prospects in their occupation, they are not looking because they are concerned about their health or the health of members of their household, or they have to care for a child whose school or daycare closed."

Go deeper: Few jobs are safe as unemployment reaches Great Depression levels

Go deeper

Dion Rabouin, author of Markets
Sep 9, 2020 - Economy & Business

Small businesses are losing confidence in their survival

Data: Goldman Sachs; Chart: Axios Visuals

Small businesses have largely exhausted their federal funding and are starting to lay off workers, with many worrying about having to shut their doors for good, according to a new survey from Goldman Sachs provided exclusively to Axios.

Why it matters: Business still has not returned to normal, six months after the coronavirus pandemic first appeared in U.S. But small firms say the money they received from the Paycheck Protection Program has run dry.

22 mins ago - Health

CDC: It's time for "universal face mask use"

Photo: Paul Hennessy/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty

The CDC is urging “universal face mask use” for the first time since the coronavirus pandemic began, citing recent case spikes as the U.S. has entered a phase of “high-level transmission” before winter officially begins.

Why it matters: Daily COVID-related deaths across the U.S. hit a new record on Wednesday. Face coverings have been shown to increase protection of the wearer and those around them, despite some Americans' reluctance to use them.

2 hours ago - World

Saudi Arabia and Qatar near deal to end standoff, sources say

Qatar's prime minister (R) attends the 2019 Gulf Cooperation Council summit in Saudi Arabia. Photo: Fayez Nureldine/AFP via Getty

Saudi Arabia and Qatar are close to a deal to end the diplomatic crisis in the Gulf following U.S.-mediated reconciliation talks this week, sources familiar with the talks tell me.

Why it matters: Restoring relations between Saudi Arabia and Qatar would bring a sense of stability back to the Gulf after a 3.5 year standoff. It could also notch a last-minute achievement for the Trump administration before Jan. 20.