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Photo: Roslan Rahman /AFP/Getty Images

Analysts at the New York Fed expect the all-out production stoppage on Boeing's 737 MAX will have a sizable negative impact on U.S. growth this year.

State of play: The decline will produce a 0.4% decline in GDP growth, the NY Fed's Julian di Giovanni finds.

Why it matters: "This is a significant fall given an average quarterly GDP growth of 2 percent," di Giovanni writes in a recent Fed blog.

Background: Prior to the slowdown in production that began in 2019 after nearly 350 people died in two plane crashes, Boeing was producing roughly 52 of those models on average per month. It's assumed this number will be zero for the first quarter of 2020.

  • Assuming workers' productive capacity, even if they are laid off, is zero, and suppliers are all domestic, di Giovanni applies Hulten’s theorem to the implied percentage change in sales from the 737 MAX production stoppage to calculate the total loss.

By the numbers: "Boeing averaged about $25 billion in quarterly revenue in 2018. Assuming that the average price of a Boeing 737 MAX is roughly $130 million, a pause in all production and sales implies lost revenue of $7 billion per month, or $21 billion for the first quarter of 2020."

  • "This then implies a sales loss of roughly 84 percentage points relative to an average quarter in 2018."
  • "Treating this sales loss as the firm shock, the lost GDP growth is then Boeing’s Domar weight times this loss (0.0047*–0.84 = –0.004), or a 0.4 percentage point decline in GDP growth."

Go deeper: The fallout from Boeing's 737 MAX suspension could have a big impact

Go deeper

Dead malls get new life

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

Malls are becoming ghosts of retail past. But the left-behind real estate is being reimagined for a post-pandemic world.

Why it matters: As many as 17% of malls in the U.S. "may no longer be viable as shopping centers and need to be redeveloped into other uses," per Barclays.

White House now says Biden will move to increase refugee cap by May 15

Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

The White House on Friday afternoon said President Biden plans to lift the Trump-era refugee cap by May 15.

Driving the news: The announcement follows stinging criticism from several Democrats and rights groups, who said Biden was walking back on his pledge to raise the limit. Earlier Friday, Biden signed a directive to speed up the processing of refugees, but kept the Trump administration's historically low cap of 15,000 refugees for this year.

Updated 2 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Suspect in FedEx shooting identified as 19-year-old former employee Brandon Hole

Crime scene investigators walk through the FedEx parking lot in Indianapolis the day after a mass shooting left nine dead, including the gunman, who took his own life. Photo: Jeff Dean/AFP via Getty Images.

The suspected gunman who killed at least eight people and wounded several others in Indianapolis before killing himself has been identified by local police as 19-year-old Brandon Hole, a former FedEx employee, a company spokesperson told the AP.

The latest: At least 100 people were in the FedEx warehouse at the time of the shooting, authorities said Friday. Indianapolis Metropolitan Police Department Deputy Chief Craig McCartt told reporters that Hole worked at FedEx through 2020. He did not specify the circumstances of Hole’s departure.