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Biden in Houston in March. Photo: Callaghan O'Hare/Getty Images

President Trump leads Joe Biden 47% to 43% in Texas with just over a week until Election Day, according to the latest New York Times/Siena College poll.

Why it matters: Demographic changes and a wave of enthusiasm have some convinced that Texas could back a Democrat for president for the first time since 1976. But Biden's lagging support among Hispanic voters in the NYT/Siena poll could prove fatal to his chances of winning the state's 38 electoral votes.

The state of play: Among Hispanic Americans, Biden leads Trump 57% to 34% — a lower figure than most estimates of Hillary Clinton's support among Hispanic voters in Texas in 2016, according to the Times.

  • Latinos will be key to winning the state, something Democrats and activists have said for months despite a lack of effective outreach to the community.
  • Biden has already set aside $6.2 million in Texas to target Latinos and young voters, but Texas Democrats are begging the campaign to spend at least $10 million in the Lone Star State, as Axios reported Sunday. The former vice president has not acquiesced.
  • The Times’ poll shows that support for Trump has increased among Hispanic voters since 2016, even with Trump’s inflammatory language about Mexicans and undocumented immigrants.
  • The Trump camp has insisted that Texas is not a battleground state.

The bottom line: Though the Biden campaign previously dismissed poll results by calling English-language polls unreliable, the new figures could pressure Biden to rethink elements of his campaign strategy as Election Day looms. It’s no longer a given — and maybe never was — that Biden can rely on overwhelming Latino support.

Meanwhile, Kamala Harris, Biden’s running mate, will visit Texas on Friday. She will be the Biden campaign’s most high-profile representative to personally travel to the state.

What to watch: Latinos aren't the only minority group courted by Democrats this election. Asian Americans are also set to play a role in flipping Texas blue, according to experts.

Go deeper

The week the Trump show ended

Data: NewsWhip; Chart: Andrew Witherspoon/Axios

Donald Trump was eclipsed in media attention last week by President Biden for the first time since Trump took office, according to viewership data on the internet, on social media and on cable news.

Why it matters: After Trump crowded out nearly every other news figure and topic for five years, momentum of the new administration took hold last week and the former president retreated, partly by choice and partly by being forced off the big platforms.

Young people want checks on Big Tech's power

Data: Generation Lab; Chart: Sara Wise/Axios

The next generation of college-educated Americans thinks social media companies have too much power and influence on politics and need more government regulation, according to a new survey by Generation Lab for Axios.

Why it matters: The findings follow an election dominated by rampant disinformation about voting fraud on social media; companies' fraught efforts to stifle purveyors of disinformation including former President Trump; and a deadly Jan. 6 insurrection over the election organized largely online.

Delivery industry sees biggest monthly job losses in more than 20 years

Data: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Chart: Axios Visuals

The pandemic's biggest job winner is losing steam.

Driving the news: People who deliver packages to businesses and homes — classified as "couriers and messengers" by the Labor Department — saw the industry's biggest monthly job losses in more than 20 years in April.