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Biden in Houston in March. Photo: Callaghan O'Hare/Getty Images

President Trump leads Joe Biden 47% to 43% in Texas with just over a week until Election Day, according to the latest New York Times/Siena College poll.

Why it matters: Demographic changes and a wave of enthusiasm have some convinced that Texas could back a Democrat for president for the first time since 1976. But Biden's lagging support among Hispanic voters in the NYT/Siena poll could prove fatal to his chances of winning the state's 38 electoral votes.

The state of play: Among Hispanic Americans, Biden leads Trump 57% to 34% — a lower figure than most estimates of Hillary Clinton's support among Hispanic voters in Texas in 2016, according to the Times.

  • Latinos will be key to winning the state, something Democrats and activists have said for months despite a lack of effective outreach to the community.
  • Biden has already set aside $6.2 million in Texas to target Latinos and young voters, but Texas Democrats are begging the campaign to spend at least $10 million in the Lone Star State, as Axios reported Sunday. The former vice president has not acquiesced.
  • The Times’ poll shows that support for Trump has increased among Hispanic voters since 2016, even with Trump’s inflammatory language about Mexicans and undocumented immigrants.
  • The Trump camp has insisted that Texas is not a battleground state.

The bottom line: Though the Biden campaign previously dismissed poll results by calling English-language polls unreliable, the new figures could pressure Biden to rethink elements of his campaign strategy as Election Day looms. It’s no longer a given — and maybe never was — that Biden can rely on overwhelming Latino support.

Meanwhile, Kamala Harris, Biden’s running mate, will visit Texas on Friday. She will be the Biden campaign’s most high-profile representative to personally travel to the state.

What to watch: Latinos aren't the only minority group courted by Democrats this election. Asian Americans are also set to play a role in flipping Texas blue, according to experts.

Go deeper

Clyburn says Biden not naming enough Black Cabinet members

Photo: Drew Angerer/Getty Images

Rep. James Clyburn (D-S.C.) told The Hill on Wednesday that Joe Biden has so far fallen short when it comes to appointing Black people to his Cabinet.

Why it matters: Clyburn, a Biden ally, played a crucial role in helping secure the president-elect's path to the White House during the Democratic primary. His endorsement was pivotal in reviving the former VP's campaign when it appeared to be flailing.

Dave Lawler, author of World
15 mins ago - World

Belarus dictator Lukashenko says he'll leave post after new constitution

Photo: Valery Sharifulin\TASS via Getty

Longtime Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko has said he will step down after a new constitution comes into force, according to Belarusian state media.

Why it matters: Lukashenko has faced three months of protests following a rigged election in August. He has promised to reform the constitution to reduce the near-absolute powers of the president, but has insisted that his strong hand is needed to see that process through.

3 hours ago - World

Iran confirms assassination of top nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadhe

The Iranian ministry of defense issued a statement on Friday confirming the assassination of Mohsen Fakhrizadhe, an Iranian scientist and the architect behind the Islamic Republic’s military nuclear program.

Why it matters: Fakhrizadhe was the head of the Amad project in the Iranian ministry of defense, which focused on developing a nuclear bomb until 2003.