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Biden supporters at a drive-in voter mobilization event in Florida. Photo: Chip Somodevilla/ via Getty Images

Former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Trump among Latino voters in Texas, Arizona, Florida and Nevada, with the narrowest margin in Florida, according to a collection of state polls conducted by Telemundo.

Why it matters: Hispanic voters are a critical bloc in this year's election. Experts say the group is vital to winning the race, and community organizers have aggressively engaged in get-out-the-vote campaigns for both candidates.

By the numbers: Biden is significantly ahead of Trump in Arizona, Texas and Nevada. An average of the three states puts Biden at approximately 61% and Trump at 30%.

Yes, but: Undecided voters make up about 6%-7% of Latinos in each state, leaving room for Trump to catch up.

The big picture: Both candidates have made efforts to connect with the Latino community, though Trump has faced backlash over his controversial comments about Mexicans and undocumented immigrants.

  • Latino women and young Latino voters especially favor Biden.
  • Trump holds a substantial lead over Biden among Cuban American voters in Florida.

Flashback: Hillary Clinton won 66% of the nationwide Latino vote in 2016, according to exit poll data. However, her share was lower than in 2012, when 71% of Latinos voted to re-elect Barack Obama.

The intrigue: The Telemundo polling asked about reopening the U.S. economy, rent moratoriums and states’ response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

  • 78% of Latino voters in Florida don’t believe they would lose their health insurance should the Supreme Court strike down the Affordable Care Act.
  • A majority of Latino voters in all four swing states said it’s too soon to reopen schools and businesses.

The bottom line: Though Trump trails Biden in these swing states, it’s no guarantee that Biden will win the Latino vote. Only time will tell how much they get out of their investment — or lack thereof — in the community.

Methodology: The polls were conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy and have a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points.

  • The Arizona poll was conducted from Oct. 23 through Oct. 27. The Florida, Nevada and Texas polls were conducted from Oct. 23 through Oct. 26. In each state, a total of 500 registered Hispanic voters were interviewed.
  • Those interviewed were randomly selected from phone-matched voter registration lists in each state that included both land-line and cell phone numbers. All of those interviewed indicated they were likely to vote in the November election.  

Go deeper

Updated Jan 24, 2021 - Politics & Policy

Arizona Republicans censure Cindy McCain and GOP governor

Combination images of Cindy McCain and Gov. Doug Ducey. Photo: FilmMagic/FilmMagic for U.S.VETS/Michael Brochstein/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

Arizona Republican Party members voted on Saturday to censure prominent GOP figures Cindy McCain, Gov. Doug Ducey and former Sen. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.), who've all faced clashes with former President Trump.

Why it matters: Although the resolution is symbolic, this move plus the re-election of the Trump-endorsed Kelli Ward as state GOP chair shows the strong hold the former president has on the party in Arizona, despite President Biden winning the state in the 2020 election.

DOJ cites discrimination in lawsuit against Texas over voting districts

Attorney General Merrick Garland. Photo: Alex Wong/Getty Images

The Department of Justice on Monday filed a lawsuit against Texas, alleging Republican state lawmakers discriminated against Black and Latino voters and has "again diluted the voting strength of minority Texans" when they approved new redistricting maps.

Why it matters: A DOJ assessment of the new districts found that they violate Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, Attorney General Merrick Garland said at a press conference.

3 hours ago - World

Biden to warn Putin U.S. will add troops in Eastern Europe if Russia invades Ukraine

Putin meets Biden in Geneva. Photo: Peter Klaunzer - Pool/Keystone via Getty

President Biden will warn Russian President Vladimir Putin when they speak on Tuesday that if Russia invades Ukraine, the U.S. is prepared to increase its troop presence, capabilities and military exercises on NATO's "eastern flank," a senior administration official told reporters.

Why it matters: The administration believes it's increasingly likely that Putin will order an invasion.