Dec 31, 2019

Biden only Democrat beating Trump in Florida, Virginia polls

Former Vice President Joe Biden. Photo: Scott Eisen/Getty Images

Former Vice President Joe Biden is the only 2020 Democratic candidate beating President Trump in polls of Florida and Virginia published by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy on Tuesday.

Why it matters: The 42 electoral votes between the two swing states could prove pivotal in the 2020 election. Trump carried Florida by about a point in 2016, while his opponent Hillary Clinton won by about 5 points in Virginia.

  • Worth noting: Biden's lead in Florida is within the +/- 4% margin of error.

In Florida:

  • Biden 47%; Trump 45%
  • Warren 42%; Trump 51%
  • Sanders 44%; Trump 49%
  • Buttigieg 45%; Trump 49%

In Virginia:

  • Biden 49%; Trump 45%
  • Warren 44; Trump 48%
  • Sanders 45%; Trump 51%
  • Buttigieg 45%; Trump 47%

Methodology: The Virginia poll was conducted on Dec. 12-16, the Florida poll was conducted Dec. 11-16. Both used a sample of 625 voters and have a margin of error of +/-4%.

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Top 4 Democrats statistically neck and neck in Iowa presidential poll

Biden and Warren participate at the sixth Democratic primary debate. Photo: Frederic J. Brown/AFP via Getty Images

Sen. Bernie Sanders has gained momentum to become the first choice among likely Iowa caucus-goers three weeks before the nation's first presidential contest, while Sen. Elizabeth Warren and former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg have slowed in the latest poll from The Des Moines Register, Mediacom and CNN.

Why it matters: But taking the margin of error into account, the poll shows the Vermont senator in a statistical dead heat with Warren, Buttigieg and former Vice President Joe Biden.

Go deeperArrowJan 10, 2020

The deeply divided Democrats

Photos: Pat Greenhouse/The Boston Globe, Ron Adar/Echoes Wire/Barcroft Media, Tayfun Coskun/Anadolu Agency and Alex Wroblewski via Getty Images

Democratic voters remain stubbornly divided on the top candidates in the four critical early states — and basically split in half between liberal and more centrist candidates.

Why it matters: A slew of new polls illuminates why many top Democrats think the 2020 race will be a long slog — and culminate with a fierce ideological battle between Sanders-style socialism and Biden-style tempered liberalism.

Go deeperArrowJan 11, 2020

Poll: Confidence in the economy boosts Trump's re-election prospects

President Trump arrives for a rally in Toledo, Ohio, on Jan. 9, 2020. Photo: Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images

Confidence in the U.S. economy is boosting President Trump's re-election chances despite the Senate impeachment trial and his continued unpopularity, an ABC/Washington Post poll published Monday finds.

Details: 56% of those surveyed approve of his handling of the economy, "up 10 points since early September to a career high," the poll notes. 49% of those polled expect Trump to win the election in November, while 43% back his Democratic challenger.

Go deeperArrowJan 28, 2020