Feb 13, 2020 - Politics & Policy

Poll: Joe Biden loses status as most electable Democrat

Photo by Sean Rayford/Getty Images

The share of Democratic primary voters who believe Joe Biden has the best chance out of any 2020 candidate to beat President Trump has dropped to 17%, down 12 points since the New Hampshire primary, according to a Morning Consult national poll.

Why it matters: Biden's electability pitch is widely considered his core appeal as a candidate.

  • Biden's competitors, including Sen. Bernie Sanders, Sen. Elizabeth Warren and former Mayor Pete Buttigieg, have faced frequent electability questions surrounding their age, experience and left-wing policies.
  • After winning in New Hampshire, Sanders now leads as the most likely candidate to beat Trump at 29%, followed by Michael Bloomberg at 25%. Both surpassed Biden in Morning Consult's post-New Hampshire poll.

Details: Underwhelming performances by Biden in Iowa and New Hampshire have hurt his candidacy. 46% of voters said Biden's showing in New Hampshire made them less likely to vote for him.

  • Confidence that Biden is the best candidate to beat Trump among black voters — a key voting bloc for Biden — also fell by 10 points to 21%.

The big picture: In horse-race polling, Sanders has opened up a 10-point lead over Biden in the days since the New Hampshire primary.

  • Sanders: 29% (+4)
  • Biden: 19% (-3)
  • Bloomberg: 18% (+1)
  • Buttigieg: 11% (0)
  • Warren: 11% (-1)
  • Klobuchar: 5% (+3)

Worth noting: National polls have their limitations, since the Democratic primary is organized state by state.

Methodology: Morning Consult conducted the survey with 2,639 likely Democrat voters nationwide. The margin of error is ± 2.

Go deeper: Bloomberg's monopoly, Biden's market crash

Go deeper

Bloomberg's monopoly, Biden's market crash

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios. Photos: Spencer Platt/Getty Staff, Joe Raedle/Getty Staff

MANCHESTER, N.H.— The political market is rendering two unambiguous trend lines: Mike Bloomberg's TV monopoly is fueling his surge into the top tier of Democratic presidential rivals, and cash-strapped Joe Biden is crashing.

State of play: The billionaire and former New York mayor is achieving a critical mass in national polls and capturing the attention of the media, establishment Democrats (and Republicans) and the betting market. And the former vice president is dropping in those same metrics.

How Joe Biden's free fall puts Bernie in command

Data: RealClearPolitics; Chart: Andrew Witherspoon/Axios

Bernie Sanders hasn't picked up the voters who are deserting Joe Biden, but he's the clear beneficiary of the former vice president's rapid collapse.

The big picture: Of the top six candidates in the race, Sanders' polling numbers have changed the least over the last few weeks — but Biden's fall has made Sanders the biggest winner, since the moderate vote is now splintered four ways.

New Hampshire polls show Sanders, Buttigieg on top in final stretch

Photo: Joe Raedle/Getty Images

Sen. Bernie Sanders maintains a slight lead over Pete Buttigieg in the upcoming New Hampshire primary, according to new polls conducted by the University of New Hampshire for CNN and WBZ/Boston Globe/Suffolk University.

Why it matters: The high-stakes primary is just two days away. Sanders and Buttigieg finished in a virtual tie in last week's Iowa caucuses, and both candidates appear set for another strong performance in a state Sanders won by more than 20 points in 2016.

Go deeperArrowUpdated Feb 9, 2020 - Politics & Policy