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Illustration: Eniola Odetunde/Axios

Joe Biden will take office today facing a challenge none of his modern predecessors have had to reckon with — his legacy will depend largely on how well he handles a once-in-a-century pandemic that's already raging out of control.

The big picture: Public health tends to be relatively apolitical and non-controversial. The limelight in health care politics typically belongs instead to debates over costs and coverage. But that will all change for the Biden administration.

"The pandemic is a personal issue. It’s totally different," said Bob Blendon, a professor at both the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health and the Harvard Kennedy School of Government.

  • "A year from now, if people can't have their kids go back to school, their families are dying, they can't meet with loved ones, and they can't go to religious services, that’s totally different than the debate over the uninsured," he said.

Where it stands: Biden will be taking the reins of a situation that's arguably at its worst.

  • The U.S. surpassed 400,000 coronavirus deaths yesterday. Cases, hospitalizations and daily deaths continue to hover near record heights, and a more contagious strain of the virus is expected to soon become the dominant one.
  • The initial weeks of the vaccination campaign have been disappointing and chaotic, and widespread vaccine hesitancy, which could undermine the entire effort, will become a more tangible problem as supplies increase.
  • Political politicization, which has hindered every step of the pandemic response, is baked in and isn't going anywhere.

What's next: Biden's plans for the coronavirus hew closely to experts' recommendations, and he's named a highly experienced team.

  • But in a year or so, the results will speak for themselves: The pandemic will either be behind us, or it won't.

The bottom line: "If everybody were to be almost near normal a year form now, he would still have three more years, and other issues would surface," Blendon said. "What will be the defining issue is if it doesn’t work out.”

Go deeper

Jan 30, 2021 - World

Science helps New Zealand avoid another coronavirus lockdown

New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern (L) visits a lab at Auckland University in December. Photo: Phil Walter/Getty Images

New Zealand has avoided locking down for a second time over COVID-19 community cases because of a swift, science-led response.

Why it matters: The Health Ministry said in an email to Axios Friday there's "no evidence of community transmission" despite three people testing positive after leaving managed hotel isolation. That means Kiwis can continue to visit bars, restaurants and events as much of the world remains on lockdown.

Jan 30, 2021 - World

Germany to impose travel restrictions to curb spread of coronavirus variants

Border police officers check passports and COVID-19 tests at Frankfurt Airport. Photo: Thomas Lohnes via Getty Images

Germany announced Friday that it was imposing new travel restrictions in an effort to curb the spread of more contagious coronavirus variants.

Details: All non-German residents traveling from countries deemed "areas of variant concern," including the United Kingdom, South Africa, Portugal, Ireland, Brazil, Lesotho and Eswatini, will be banned from entering the country, even if they test negative for the coronavirus.

6 hours ago - World

Over 170 Palestinians injured in clashes with Israeli police in Jerusalem

An injured man is carried away as Israeli security forces clash with Palestinian protesters at the al-Aqsa mosque compound in Jerusalem. Photo: Ahmad Gharabli/AFP via Getty Images

At least 178 Palestinians have been injured in clashes with Israeli police in Jerusalem, Reuters reported late Friday.

The big picture: The clashes come amid growing anger over the threatened eviction of Palestinians from their homes on land claimed by Jewish settlers in East Jerusalem. Tensions have also escalated in the occupied West Bank in recent weeks.