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SurveyMonkey poll of 2,847 U.S. adults conducted Aug. 11–12, 2020 with ±3% margin of error; Chart: Naema Ahmed/Axios

One in four Americans is worried their ballot won't be accurately counted this year, and four in 10 worry mail-in voting could yield less reliable results, according to a new Axios-SurveyMonkey poll.

The big picture: Partisan identification is a massive driver of distrust in both categories — and the stakes are huge this year.

  • 42% of respondents overall say they expect to vote by mail amid the coronavirus pandemic, a trend being driven by people under 25 or over 65, women of color, liberal Democrats and independents.
  • Seven in 10 Republicans surveyed say mail-in voting is less likely to produce fair and accurate results, while Democrats say on balance they believe it will make the results slightly more fair and accurate.

Why it matters: As President Trump seeks to delegitimize absentee voting and politicize the U.S. Postal Service, the findings in this national survey document the potential for wide voter disenfranchisement or mistrust in the results come November.

  • Consider the partisan divide over whether to vote in person or by mail amid the coronavirus pandemic: 80% of conservative or very conservative Republicans say they plan to vote in person, compared with just 33% of liberal or very liberal Democrats.
  • Respondents are more likely to prospectively question the validity of the overall results than to doubt that their own vote will be accurately registered.
  • But Black and Hispanic respondents were less likely than white respondents to have confidence their own votes will be counted right. People with higher incomes were more likely to trust the process than those who earn less than $50,000 a year.
Data: SurveyMonkey poll of 2,847 U.S. adults conducted Aug. 11–12, 2020 with ±3% margin of error; Chart: Axios Visuals

What they're saying: SurveyMonkey chief research officer Jon Cohen says registered voters are slightly more confident than Americans overall that their own votes will be accurately counted — about eight in 10, although only half of those are "very confident" that will be the case.

  • "For Republicans, the lack of trust in the system has shot up," Cohen says. By comparison, he notes, a 2006 Washington Post-ABC News poll ahead of midterm elections found a scant 6% lacked confidence their vote would be counted.

Go deeper: Our survey — which went into the field on Tuesday and Wednesday, beginning after Joe Biden announced Kamala Harris as his running mate — also shows Harris so far accomplishing just what the campaign hoped: doing no harm, while exciting parts of the base with whom Biden needs the most help.

Methodology: This SurveyMonkey online poll was conducted August 11-12, 2020 among a national sample of 2,847 adults (2,558 registered voters) in the U.S. Respondents were selected from more than 2 million people who take surveys on the SurveyMonkey platform each day. The modeled error estimate for this survey is +/- 3.0 percentage points. Data have been weighted for age, race, sex, education, and geography using the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey to reflect the demographic composition of the United States age 18 and over.

Go deeper

Nov 14, 2020 - Politics & Policy

Democracy's machinery worked

"The machinery of American democracy is working," Emily Bazelon writes in Sunday's issue of The New York Times Magazine, noting "America's pandemic election was a remarkable, unlikely feat."

The big picture: A committee composed of officials from the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) and its election partners earlier this week refuted President Trump's persistent claims of widespread voter fraud and irregularities, calling the election "the most secure in American history."

2 hours ago - World

Map: A look at world population density in 3D

This fascinating map is made by Alasdair Rae of Sheffield, England, a former professor of urban studies who is the founder of Automatic Knowledge. It shows world population density in 3D.

Details: "No land is shown on the map, only the locations where people actually live. ... The higher the spike, the more people live in an area. Where there are no spikes, there are no people (e.g. you can clearly identify ... the Sahara Desert)."

Biden's Day 1 challenges: The immigration reset

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

President-elect Biden has an aggressive Day 1 immigration agenda that relies heavily on executive actions to undo President Trump's crackdown.

Why it matters: It's not that easy. Trump issued more than 400 executive actions on immigration. Advocates are fired up. The Supreme Court could threaten the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program, and experts warn there could be another surge at the border.