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Data: Ipsos/Axios survey; Chart: Axios Visuals

Six in 10 Americans are dialing back this year's Thanksgiving plans because of the pandemic — cutting guest lists, canceling travel or scrapping Turkey Day altogether — in the latest installment of the Axios/Ipsos Coronavirus Index.

The big picture: This greater willingness to turn inward and exercise caution around the holidays comes amid signs of increased trust in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and a growing confidence there will soon be a safe and effective vaccine available in the U.S.

  • For the first time in our poll, more than half of Americans (51%) say they're likely to take a first-generation COVID-19 vaccine as soon as it's available. College-educated and white Americans and Democrats are driving the trend.
  • 65% of respondents say they'd be likely to take a vaccine if pharmaceutical companies deemed it more than 90% effective.
  • An even greater share — 70% overall (55% of Black respondents and 60% of Republicans) — say they'd take it if public health officials say it's safe and effective.

What they're saying: "They have hope," said Cliff Young, president of Ipsos U.S. Public Affairs. "It’s not Trump just saying something. It’s credible institutions. It’s more real now."

  • "They can see the concreteness of a vaccine on the horizon," Young said. "They understand the current reality is complicated, and they're self-quarantining for Thanksgiving."

By the numbers: About two-thirds of respondents say seeing family or friends this Thanksgiving would pose a large or moderate threat, while three-fourths say traveling poses a large or moderate threat.

  • 61% changed their Thanksgiving plans because of the recent spike in virus cases.
  • As we've seen time and again around pandemic polling, partisan identification plays a role in behavior: Democrats (75%) are most likely to say they modified their holiday plans, followed by independents (61%) and Republicans (49%).
  • Democrats were the most likely to limit gatherings to their immediate households, as opposed to simply reducing the size of the gatherings.
  • About one in 10 respondents won't observe Thanksgiving at all this year.

Methodology: This Axios/Ipsos Poll was conducted Nov. 20-23 by Ipsos' KnowledgePanel®. This poll is based on a nationally representative probability sample of 1,002 general population adults age 18 or older.

  • The margin of sampling error is ±3.2 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, for results based on the entire sample of adults.

Go deeper

21 hours ago - Health

U.S. surpasses 25 million COVID cases

A mass COVID-19 vaccination site at Dodger Stadium on Jan. 22 in Los Angeles, California. Photo: Mario Tama/Getty Images

The U.S has confirmed more than 25 million coronavirus cases, per Johns Hopkins data updated on Sunday.

The big picture: President Biden has said he expects the country's death toll to exceed 500,000 people by next month, as the rate of deaths due to the virus continues to escalate.

Coronavirus has inflamed global inequality

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

History will likely remember the pandemic as the "first time since records began that inequality rose in virtually every country on earth at the same time." That's the verdict from Oxfam's inequality report covering the year 2020 — a terrible year that hit the poorest, hardest across the planet.

Why it matters: The world's poorest were already in a race against time, facing down an existential risk in the form of global climate change. The coronavirus pandemic could set global poverty reduction back as much as a full decade, according to the World Bank.