National

The Fed’s tone seems to be shifting, pointing to a more optimistic outlook. What does that tell us about the economy?

Plus, another mass shooting in California affecting the AAPI community 

And, new plans to curb fraud in organic food labels

Guests: Axios' Courtenay Brown and The Washington Post’s Laura Reiley.

Credits: Axios Today is produced by Niala Boodhoo, Alexandra Botti, Lydia McMullen-Laird, Fonda Mwangi and Alex Sugiura. Music is composed by Evan Viola. You can reach us at podcasts@axios.com. You can text questions, comments and story ideas to Niala as a text or voice memo to 202-918-4893.

USDA moves to crack down on ‘organic’ fraud

What we know about the Monterey Park mass shooting

NIALA: Good morning! Welcome to Axios Today! 

Here’s what we’re following today: new plans to curb fraud in organic food labels. Plus, the death toll rises in the Monterey Park shooting. But first: cautious optimism at the Fed is today’s One Big Thing.

NIALA: We've talked a lot on the podcast about the Fed's battle with inflation last  year as the central bank has wrestled with interest rates. But recently the Fed’s tone has shifted to a more optimistic outlook. What does that tell us about the economy? Here to translate this Fedspeak for us as Axios’ economics reporter, Courtenay Brown. Hey Courtenay

NIALA: Okay, Courtenay. So first the 10,000 foot view. What's happening with the economy and in particular inflation right now?

COURTENAY: Well, the data that's been coming in lately, the economic data has been looking pretty good for the most part. We got the consumer price index, which, you know, is a gauge of price increases across a basket of consumer goods. For the month of December, it actually looks like prices fell in aggregate and have slowed in the 12 months through December. It’s been slowing for a few consecutive months, and that's really good news for the Fed's inflation fight. And alongside that, we've had pretty continued strong jobs growth. You see a lot of tech layoffs in the headlines and you know, that's really devastating for people who are losing their jobs. But for the most part, businesses are still really, really hungry for workers. And the unemployment rate is quite low.

NIALA: So how can you tell the Fed’s sounding more optimistic these days?

COURTENAY: I think to understand how the Fed's tone has changed, I think you need to go back to last summer when a bunch of economic reporters and top economic policy makers gathered in Jackson Hole for what ultimately was a pretty grim message from the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Getting back to price stability or in other words, conquering inflation is going to require economic pain. That's quite a message from the Fed chairman. And I think the scenario that Chair Powell was envisioning, um, a rise in joblessness just hasn't happened yet. So now they're more optimistic, but they have the data to kind of back up what they're saying. So inflation has been falling for several months, the U.S. labor market looks pretty, pretty strong. The economy and aggregate is slowing, but it's still pretty healthy. And there's no evidence to back up a so-called wage spiral. And that's kind of the dreaded scenario that played out a few decades ago when inflation was a huge problem in this country. Wages are slowing, which sounds devastating for working Americans of course, but the Fed is really concerned that wages will rise faster and faster and faster. And it will be really, really hard to put a lid on inflation. But that's not a scenario that's happening right now, and that's quite good news.

NIALA: So does that mean the Fed's likely to raise interest rates again next week?

COURTENAY: Oh, sure. The Fed's inflation fight is not over. You know, the story of 2022 was the Fed raising rates really quickly, really aggressively to contain inflation. I know it's only January, but it looks like the story of 2023 is that the Fed Slowing its pace of interest rate hikes and is eventually going to stop and hold interest rates at that level as they see how the economy progresses, as they see, what happens with inflation and that is what we're expecting when the Fed meets for its, policy meaning in the coming days.

NIALA: Courtenay Brown is one of the co-authors of Axios Macro. Thanks Courtney.

NIALA:  At least seven people were killed yesterday, in a mass shooting in two locations in San Mateo County, California. A 67-year-old suspect is in custody. Local officials said the victims were Chinese farmworkers.

This came less than two days after the Monterey Park, California shooting which also involved the AAPI community. Another victim of that shooting died yesterday, bringing the death toll to 11. 

In a news briefing yesterday, Chief Scott Wiese of the Monterey Park Police said the motive of that shooter – who died of a self-inflicted gunshot wound – has still not been identified.

SCOTT WIESE: The why is a big part of this. The problem is, we may never know the why. And we have to work past that.

NIALA: In a moment: the USDA takes on organic fraud.

New plans to curb fraud in organic food labels

NIALA: Welcome back to Axios Today. I'm Niala Boodhoo.

Organic food sales are more than double what they were a decade ago. In 2021, sales hit $57.5 billion. That's according to the Organic Trade Association. But now, sham overpriced products claiming the organic label have been hitting grocery store shelves, and the USDA is cracking down.

The Washington Post’s Laura Reiley has been reporting on this story. Hi Laura. Welcome to Axios Today.

LAURA REILEY: Thanks so much for having me.

NIALA: Laura, the DOJ recently brought charges involving a multimillion dollar organic scheme, so what exactly is organic fraud?

LAURA: Well, it's prevalent in commodity grains. Soy and corn are obviously enormous crops that travel around the world, they go from Asia and the Middle East to the U.S. and back again. And so these are products where if you are claiming organic status rather than conventional, you can charge 50% more, twice as much. So there's a lot of incentive to misrepresent those kinds of products.

NIALA: Is this also something that is a problem in grocery stores as well?

LAURA: Yes. So as you've probably noticed, if you go to a grocery store like Whole Foods, that really specializes in organic produce, a lot of times the little shelf talker will say, product of Mexico. So we have an awful lot of organic produce that has grown elsewhere and brought into the U.S. and that really gives growers opportunities to, if not misrepresent or flout organic rules,  to bend them a little bit. So whether that's use of fertilizers or pest and weed control, or soil quality or no GMOs, all of these things that are supposed to be kind of corner pins of organic practices, you often will see people cutting corners as a way of increasing their revenue stream.

NIALA: So what are the new organic guidelines from the USDA? What is the official definition?

LAURA: What just happened last week, these new guidelines mean that more of the businesses in that supply chain have to have organic certification. The brokers, the traders, all the middlemen, so that there's more transparency linking what you get in a grocery store or at a table in a restaurant back to that grower. Brokers and traders will have to be certified. All of the imports will have certifications, there will be increased inspections and reporting requirements for organic growers. And it remains to be seen whether these will be effective in really curbing this kind of fraud.

NIALA: How do you anticipate these new guidelines will change the business of food?

LAURA: Certainly some manufacturers will be afraid of retribution from USDA. But it all comes down to whether or not there are enough inspectors who are either spot checking at the border or in a manufacturing facility, and who are really tracking back, where did you get this soy? Where did you get this corn? Some of the advocates that I spoke with said, you know, this has been problematic for decades and we have no confidence that this will really curtail some of the problems. 

I mean, for instance, most of the organic milk in the United States comes from these huge dairies in California that are organic in that they're not using, you know, growth hormones and antibiotics and those kinds of things. But they're kind of organic in name only, not in spirit. Because a lot of these animals, they don't have access to pasture, they don't have some of the fundamental animal husbandry practices that are essential to that organic label.

NIALA: So what's your advice for consumers who are interested in and care about purchasing organic food?

LAURA: Well, I would say, and this is tricky because it really does mean you have to eat seasonally, I would say sources locally as you can when you can diminish the distance that that food has to travel, you are more likely to know the whole supply chain, understand, be able to track it back to its origin. And also for a food product in the grocery store, let's say a bag of pea protein, better for you chips or something like that, the shorter that ingredient list is the more likely that all of the ostensibly organic ingredients that go into that, will be true and accurate. Once you get into products that have 20, 30, 50 ingredients, the likelihood that all of them are certified organic becomes just statistically unlikely.

NIALA: Laura Reiley covers the business of food for The Washington Post. Thank you.

NIALA: That’s it for us today. You can always text me with feedback and story ideas at 202-918-4893.

I’m Niala Boodhoo. Thanks for listening, stay safe, and we’ll see you back here tomorrow morning.

Cautious optimism at the Fed

Inflation

Axios Today

The Fed’s tone seems to be shifting, pointing to a more optimistic outlook. What does that tell us about the economy?<ul><li>Plus, another mass shooting in California affecting the AAPI community </li><li>And, new plans to curb fraud in organic food labels</li></ul>Guests: Axios&#x27; Courtenay Brown and The Washington Post’s Laura Reiley.Credits: Axios Today is produced by Niala Boodhoo, Alexandra Botti, Lydia McMullen-Laird, Fonda Mwangi and Alex Sugiura. Music is composed by Evan Viola. You can reach us at <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="podcasts@axios.com" data-vars-click-url="mailto:podcasts@axios.com" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="mailto:podcasts@axios.com" target="_blank">podcasts@axios.com</a>. You can text questions, comments and story ideas to Niala as a text or voice memo to 202-918-4893.Go Deeper:<ul><li><a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="1 big thing: The Fed&#x27;s new optimism" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-macro-4294d873-3443-4b7d-b291-3a7009a086c0.html?chunk=0&amp;utm_term=emshare#story0" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-macro-4294d873-3443-4b7d-b291-3a7009a086c0.html?chunk=0&amp;utm_term=emshare#story0" target="_self">1 big thing: The Fed&#x27;s new optimism</a></li><li><a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="USDA moves to crack down on ‘organic’ fraud" data-vars-click-url="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/01/19/usda-rule-organic-fraud/" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/01/19/usda-rule-organic-fraud/" target="_blank">USDA moves to crack down on ‘organic’ fraud</a></li><li><a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="What we know about the Monterey Park mass shooting" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/01/22/monterey-park-mass-shooting-california" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/01/22/monterey-park-mass-shooting-california" target="_self">What we know about the Monterey Park mass shooting</a></li></ul>

Podcasts

The United Nations projects India is set to surpass China as the world's most populous country this year, while the U.S. on the other hand needs more people to avoid big economic problems.

Plus, the week in politics: RNC elections and more.

And, five fired Memphis police officers are charged with murder.

Guests: Axios' David Lindsey, Han Chen and Neil Irwin.

Credits: Axios Today is produced by Niala Boodhoo, Alexandra Botti, Naomi Shavin, Fonda Mwangi and Alex Sugiura. Music is composed by Evan Viola. You can reach us at podcasts@axios.com. You can text questions, comments and story ideas to Niala as a text or voice memo to 202-918-4893.

"They are all responsible": 5 ex-cops involved in Tyre Nichols’ arrest charged with murder, DA says

India to become most populous nation — bringing opportunities and challenges

Today on the show: Five fired Memphis police officers are charged with murder in Tyre Nichols death. Plus, population shifts worldwide…and why they matter. But first, RNC elections and more…the week in politics is today’s One Big Thing.

The week in politics: RNC elections and more

NIALA: McConnell takes a more centrist role in Congress, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis calls for new blood to lead the RNC. In California, Representative Adam Schiff enters the race to replace Senator Diane Feinstein. 

Here for a Friday politics State of Play is David Lindsey, the new managing editor for politics at Axios. Hi David. Welcome to Axios and the podcast. 

DAVID LINDSEY: Hi Niala. Thanks a lot. Glad to be here.

NIALA: David, to start Republican Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell's role seems to be shifting. What's happening this week?

DAVID: He is, uh, for years has been known as the Grim Reaper of progressive policy. That's a self-proclaimed label he's put on himself, because he's always been a foil for Democrats. But more recently he's shown kind of an impatience with the chaos in the House and he has left the debt ceiling negotiations to Kevin McCarthy, the house speaker. But has also said there won't be a default. So he's kind of promising no crisis. He infuriated a lot of right wing Republicans in the past few months by backing the big omnibus spending bill in December. Uh, and then in January, appearing with President Biden to a tout of infrastructure bill it's drawn criticism from, uh, far right Republicans.

NIALA: Today, the Republican National Committee will vote on its chair who's involved in that and what's at stake for this position? 

DAVID: Big surprise on this when Ron DeSantis, who is of course seen as a, uh, rival to President Trump in a potential presidential race in 2024, he backed — Ron DeSantis did — Harmeet Dillon for the chairmanship of the, uh, Republican National Committee.

Ronna McDaniel had been long, considered the favorite. She has the votes, or had had them last year anyway. But Harmeet Dhillon is running an aggressive campaign to lead the party. And so it'll be interesting to see if DeSantis’s voice on this carries some weight with Republican voters on the chairmanship. 

NIALA: So there's kind of a through line of what we've been talking about, which is basically the 2024 election, which brings me to my last question that California Senator Diane Feinstein, can you remind us who is already in this race that hasn't really been declared yet? 

DAVID: So already in the race are Democrat Katie Porter. Her consumer advocacy has won her a lot of fans on Capitol Hill. And then there is Adam Schiff who was last seen on the House Intel Committee in the January 6th panel really creating a national figure for himself. 

Now the Democrats are favored to win this election, but Diane Feinstein, the incumbent senator who's been there since 1992, she's 89 years old. The assumption, broad assumption is that she's going to leave. But she hasn't said that, and I think her supporters are probably getting a little irritated by all these Democrats who, uh, want to be stars or are highly thought of in the Democratic party jumping up to, uh, to run for this and announce their intentions before she leaves. 

NIALA: David Lindsey is the new politics managing editor for Axios. Thanks, David.

Five fired Memphis police officers are charged with murder

NIALA: Five fired Memphis Police Department officers were arrested yesterday in connection to the death of 29-year-old Tyre Nichols, on charges including second degree murder, aggravated assault and official misconduct.

Memphis Police released a video statement this week… Here is what Chief CJ Davis had to say.

CERELYN DAVIS: I expect you to feel outraged in the disregard of basic human rights as our police officers have taken an oath to do the opposite of what transpired on the video.

NIALA: The video footage of Nichols arrest is expected to be released this evening.

Here is what we know so far – on January 7th Memphis officers stopped Nichols for reckless driving. The police say when they approached Nichols quote “a confrontation occurred.” He fled the scene on foot…and when police tried to take him into custody there was another confrontation. He was eventually arrested.

While in custody, police say Nichols was taken to the hospital in critical condition after complaining of shortness of breath. He died 3 days later. There is not yet an official cause of death.

NIALA: In a moment: population shifts in India, China and the U.S.

Population shifts worldwide and why they matter

NIALA: Welcome back to Axios Today. I'm Niala Boodhoo. 

Populations are shifting around the world right now in some big ways. The UN projects India is set to surpass China as the world's most populous country this year… and here in the U.S. Experts say we don't have enough people, and the economy will suffer if that doesn't change. 

Here for more is Neil Irwin, Axios chief economic correspondent, and Han Chen from the Axios World team.

Han: First, what are the major factors in these shifts happening in China?

HAN CHEN: China starting early 1970s already encouraged fewer birth, that was actually before the one child policy that was introduced in late 1970s. So during the 1970, that one decade, China's fertility rate actually came down from six child per woman to actually below three children per woman. Also, the cost of raising a child actually rose exponentially over the past few decades as the standard living improves in China. And also the third factor is that the women in China became more and more independent and career driven. Especially over the last two decades and they tend to actually push back against social expectations a lot more nowadays, marriage or giving birth a lot of women don't think is as necessary as much from their parents, as for themselves.

HAN: India is still like growing really fast right now, but it is actually trending down. So from the 1970s, India's fertility rate actually declined from more than five birth per women to just below the replacement level of 2.1 in recent years. And in comparison, why is India actually surpassing China? I think because China's fertility rate last year was less than 1.2, so 2.1 versus 1.2. Even that really makes, you know, big difference here in the total population.

NIALA: Neil, Han sort of laid out that even though India's growing, it has also seen a decline. This is part of a worldwide phenomenon, and I wanted to talk about the U.S. because I think people listening might be really surprised to hear that the U.S. needs more people.

NEIL IRWIN: Yeah, the U.S. population growth has fallen below the replacement rate, over the last 15, 20 years. That's the rate at which, uh, the population is stable even without immigration. So the total fertility rate, which is the number of children born to a woman, over her lifetime on average it was 2.12 back in 2007, down to 1.65 in 2021, the lowest ever recorded.

So, you know what that implies is absent higher immigration rates, the U.S. has its own demographic challenges and the things that Han was describing with China apply in their own way in the U.S. So if you think about the finances of Social security and Medicare, they depend on their being a large workforce that is paying taxes that help pay for the retirement benefits of retirees. If the ratio of retirees to workers shifts in an unfavorable way, the finances of those programs are much more challenging. And that seems to be the path we're on where the ratio of people in their kind of prime working years to the people who are retired and not working is, uh, is really gonna be shifting in the coming decades in the United States.

NIALA: What are you thinking about or watching for next as you think about these broad demographic shifts across the globe, whether we're talking about the U.S., China, or India?

NEIL: In the U.S. I think the key question is, is the decline in immigration during the pandemic, a short term thing? And will that reverse itself? And do Americans start having more babies you know, do we experience a rebound in the fertility rate or is it at a permanently low level?

HAN: And I would just like to add to that, there's a report that from the United Nations that just came out they gave a pretty staggering statistics. So the number of people 65 or over is projected to double over the next three decades worldwide to about 1.6 billion in 2050, and that's ⅙ of the total population. So one thing that I'm going to watch out for is more concrete action plans from the most effective countries. So if those countries like Japan, China, U.S. could actually start, you know, pushing out some of those plans, they could actually set examples for others to follow. The report actually talked about a few things, reform the pension system, and maybe raise the retirement ages. And create more job opportunity for women and other disadvantaged groups. They think those things could actually help in the long run.

NIALA: Han Chen, Neil Irwin, thanks to you both 

NIALA: That’s all for this week. Axios Today is produced by Fonda Mwangi, Naomi Shavin and Lydia McMullen-Laird. Our sound engineers are Alex Sugiura and Ben O’Brien. Alexandra Botti is our supervising producer. Sara Kehaulani Goo is Axios’ editor in chief. Special thanks this week to Oriana Gonzalez, and as always to Axios co-founder Mike Allen.

I’m Niala Boodhoo. Stay safe, enjoy your weekend and we’ll see you back here on Monday.

Population

The United Nations projects India is set to surpass China as the world&#x27;s most populous country this year, while the U.S. on the other hand needs more people to avoid big economic problems.<ul><li>Plus, the week in politics: RNC elections and more.</li><li>And, five fired Memphis police officers are charged with murder.</li></ul>Guests: Axios&#x27; David Lindsey, Han Chen and Neil Irwin.Credits: Axios Today is produced by Niala Boodhoo, Alexandra Botti, Naomi Shavin, Fonda Mwangi and Alex Sugiura. Music is composed by Evan Viola. You can reach us at <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="podcasts@axios.com" data-vars-click-url="mailto:podcasts@axios.com" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="mailto:podcasts@axios.com" target="_blank">podcasts@axios.com</a>. You can text questions, comments and story ideas to Niala as a text or voice memo to 202-918-4893.Go Deeper:<ul><li><a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="&quot;They are all responsible&quot;: 5 ex-cops involved in Tyre Nichols’ arrest charged with murder, DA says" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/01/26/memphis-police-charged-tyre-nichols-death" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/01/26/memphis-police-charged-tyre-nichols-death" target="_self">&quot;They are all responsible&quot;: 5 ex-cops involved in Tyre Nichols’ arrest charged with murder, DA says</a></li><li><a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="India to become most populous nation — bringing opportunities and challenges" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/01/13/india-china-population-economy-trade-workers" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/01/13/india-china-population-economy-trade-workers" target="_self">India to become most populous nation — bringing opportunities and challenges</a></li><li><a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="DeSantis calls for &quot;new blood&quot; at RNC" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/01/26/desantis-rnc-mcdaniel-dhillon" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/01/26/desantis-rnc-mcdaniel-dhillon" target="_self">DeSantis calls for &quot;new blood&quot; at RNC</a></li></ul>

Ten people were killed and at least 10 others injured over the weekend in a shooting in Los Angeles County’s Monterey Park. It happened on the first day of the city’s annual Lunar New Year celebrations. The community holds an important place in Asian American history.

Plus, Ukraine's quest for tanks to combat Russia.

And, Lunar New Year traditions and memories to hold dear.

Guests: Dr. Timothy Fong, Professor of Ethnic Studies at California State University, Sacramento, and the author of The First Suburban Chinatown; Idrees Ali, national security correspondent for Reuters; Axios reporters Shawna Chen, Han Chen, and Hope King.

What we know about the Monterey Park mass shooting (Axios)

The First Suburban Chinatown (Timothy Fong)

Germany would not block Poland from sending tanks to Ukraine, minister says (Reuters)

NIALA BOODHOO: Good morning! Welcome to Axios Today! It’s Monday, January 23. I’m Niala Boodhoo. Today: Ukraine’s quest for weapons for the next phase of war. Plus, Lunar New Year celebrations to hold dear. But first, another deadly mass shooting in America. That’s today’s One Big Thing.

Ten People Killed in Monterey Park Mass Shooting

NIALA: Ten people were killed and at least 10 others injured over the weekend in a mass shooting in Los Angeles County’s Monterey Park. It happened on the first day of the city’s annual Lunar New Year celebrations. The suspected 72-year-old shooter was later found dead in a van of what law enforcement said was a self-inflicted gunshot wound. LA County Sheriff Robert Luna said last night that all the victims were at least in their fifties and some possibly much older, and that the investigation is ongoing.

SHERIFF ROBERT LUNA: "We still are not clear on the motive. We want to know. We want to know how something this awful can happen"

NIALA: This was at least the 36th mass shooting so far this year, according to the Gun Violence Archive. Congressman Judy Chu--a former mayor of Monterey Park--also spoke at the Sunday evening news conference.

REP. JUDY CHU: "What I want to say to this community is: feel safe."

For some context on that community, I spoke to Dr. Timothy Fong, author of The First Suburban Chinatown, a book about Monterey Park.

DR. TIMOTHY FONG: It is the first city in the continental United States that was majority Asian. And, primarily, people from Taiwan, Hong Kong, a little less from China. It was a suburban community, eight miles east of downtown Los Angeles, right next to East LA, which was a Mexican American city. It has a history of being very liberal and open. It was one of the first cities in the United States that actually welcomed Japanese Americans after World War II. Many of the people who came were immigrants and they were educated. They were middle class. And so they came to the city and they were able to buy property, start businesses, and really change that community very quickly. The result was in Monterey Park, a lot of the businesses are Asian owned. Chinese language signs, the types of food, of overwhelmingly Asian. You go to a supermarket in Monterey Park, you'll hear Asian music. I think they're more Asian markets than there are, like, Safeway or more quote on quote traditional supermarket.

NIALA: In California, hate crimes against Asians rose more than 177% between 2020 and 2021. We don't know the motive for this crime as of now, we should be really clear. But how does this mass murder factor into a climate of fear? Many in the Asian American community are experiencing?

DR. FONG: It heightens the concern and the fear. That's the reality of, the experience of, of Asians in this period of anti-Asian hate. But We need to wait to see what is going on. There are some indications that it may simply be interpersonal, we have to understand as well that there's nuances. Asians – it's such a large, diverse diasporic community. It's not monolithic by any means. And there is antagonism between and within Asian groups. It's just more complicated, than it seems at first.

NIALA: Dr. Timothy Fong is a Professor of Ethnic Studies at California State University, Sacramento. Thank you, Dr. Fong.

NIALA: Coming up: Ukraine’s quest for tanks to combat Russia.

Germany won't agree to send tanks to Ukraine

NIALA: Welcome back to Axios Today. I’m Niala Boodhoo.

Ukraine says it badly needs more weapons to combat Russia, as it approaches a year of war, especially German-made Leopard 2 tanks. At a meeting of allies on Friday, Germany would not say whether it would send its tanks or allow other nations who have them to do so.

Then yesterday, Germany’s foreign minister said her country would not block Poland from sending its Leopard tanks to Ukraine if it chooses to do so -- welcome news to Kyiv. Though Germany remains mum on sending tanks itself.

Reuters’ Idrees Ali was in Germany covering this and is here with what we need to know. Idrees, what was this allies meeting all about?

IDREES ALI: Yeah, so I was with the defense secretary, Lloyd Austin, in Berlin, and then a meeting of defense leaders at Ramstein Airbase – basically 50 defense ministers from around the world to come together and pledge weapons to Ukraine. And the expectation and the real focus was on what Germany would do, because the way the current battle is shaping up is that they'll need a lot more armored vehicles and Germany has the leopard tanks, which a lot of other countries have in the region as well. So, Austin met his German counterpart to try and push the Germans to accept the request from Poland and other countries to transfer the tanks to Ukraine.

NIALA: Why is there so much pressure on Germany now to be providing this?

IDREES: I think we need to look at sort of the broader context, right? Washington argues that it has provided the large bulk of weaponry and military aid. When it comes to an issue like tanks, Germany has a lot of them And so I think there's a growing sense, uh, within the Biden administration, which is to say, hey, we've provided 27 billion, not only is it time for you to step up, but your capabilities are the ones that are best suited for the current situation.

The counter-argument from the Germans is that they're saying, hey, we'll send our tanks if you, the Americans also send your tanks. The only issue is the Biden administration is not keen on sending these Abrams tanks to Ukraine.

NIALA: What are you hearing from military sources inside the Pentagon in terms of what Ukraine needs from a weapons perspective to win this war?

You know, it's interesting the way the, the weaponry has worked. So, the first phase we saw a lot of these anti-aircraft missiles, um, like stingers and Javelins. The second phase, we saw a lot of air defense systems because, you know, we've seen a trend of Russian attacks, missile attacks, against civilian targets, in cities. So air defenses were sent. And now we're in this territory or this phase where the Ukrainians are getting ready for the spring to carry out their own counter offensives, and, uh, get ready for Russian offensives. And so that's why we're looking at more heavily armor of vehicles, that will allow troops to be moved around in a safe manner, and that's why tanks are coming in such, such focus right now.

NIALA: Idrees Ali is a Washington based national security correspondent for Reuters. Thank you.

NIALA: Before we go today, we want to leave you on a hopeful note and by circling back to the Lunar New Year, which was kicked off yesterday. We asked some Axios reporters – and you – to share special Lunar New Year traditions and memories.

SHAWNA CHEN: My family lived in Shanghai when I was a child, and the best part for me would come during the countdown and we'd all gather outside, my sisters and I grabbing sparklers, writing our names in the air, as my dad positioned a firecracker and lit the fuse. He’d always try to time it just right so that we could watch it explode into the air as we reached midnight. 

HAN CHEN: When I was growing up, Lunar New Year not only means seeing relatives but also some extra fun time at my youngest aunt's small karaoke bar back in my hometown. She would just always yell, “one more, one more!” She's always cheering me on, and that was, like, the sweetest memory I have for New Years. 

CHRISTINE: For Lunar New Year, I used to live in China, but you know, now I'm in the States and I don't have this entire week off anymore. But my mom and I still try and keep some of the traditions. We went to Costco and bought a whole bunch of pineapple cakes and, more traditional Chinese sweets that we happen to find. Oh, and of course my mom's probably gonna check my horoscope and see if my birth year is going to have good luck here this year or not, and what to avoid. I just nod along and hope that this year brings me love!

HOPE KING: One of my favorite loner New Year traditions is just getting the house ready. There is a superstition that you're supposed to throw away all the trash in your house, before the new year, so that you make room for all the good new energy coming in, so I love doing that. And then decorating the house to welcome all that good energy. And wishing everyone a happy Lunar New Year.

NIALA: Thanks to Axios reporters Shawna Chen and Han Chen, listener Christine, and Axios reporter Hope King. Thanks to all of you who also sent in voice memos we didn’t have time to use. We’re so grateful for every single one!

And that’s all for today. I’m Niala Boodhoo. Thanks for listening, stay safe, and we’ll see you back here tomorrow morning.

10 people killed in Monterey Park mass shooting

A gunman killed 10 people in Monterey Park, CA

Mass shootings

Ten people were killed and at least 10 others injured over the weekend in a shooting in Los Angeles County’s Monterey Park. It happened on the first day of the city’s annual Lunar New Year celebrations. The community holds an important place in Asian American history.<ul><li>Plus, Ukraine&#x27;s quest for tanks to combat Russia.</li><li>And, Lunar New Year traditions and memories to hold dear.</li></ul>Guests: Dr. Timothy Fong, Professor of Ethnic Studies at California State University, Sacramento, and the author of The First Suburban Chinatown; Idrees Ali, national security correspondent for Reuters; Axios reporters Shawna Chen, Han Chen, and Hope King.Credits: Axios Today is produced by Niala Boodhoo, Alexandra Botti, Lydia McMullen-Laird, Fonda Mwangi and Alex Sugiura. Music is composed by Evan Viola. You can reach us at <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="podcasts@axios.com" data-vars-click-url="mailto:podcasts@axios.com" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="mailto:podcasts@axios.com" target="_blank">podcasts@axios.com</a>. You can text questions, comments and story ideas to Niala as a text or voice memo to 202-918-4893.Go Deeper:<ul><li><a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="What we know about the Monterey Park mass shooting" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/01/22/monterey-park-mass-shooting-california" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/01/22/monterey-park-mass-shooting-california" target="_self">What we know about the Monterey Park mass shooting</a> (Axios)</li><li><a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="The First Suburban Chinatown" data-vars-click-url="https://tupress.temple.edu/books/the-first-suburban-chinatown" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://tupress.temple.edu/books/the-first-suburban-chinatown" target="_blank">The First Suburban Chinatown</a> (Timothy Fong)</li><li><a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Germany would not block Poland from sending tanks to Ukraine, minister says" data-vars-click-url="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/france-does-not-rule-out-sending-leclerc-tanks-ukraine-macron-2023-01-22/" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/france-does-not-rule-out-sending-leclerc-tanks-ukraine-macron-2023-01-22/" target="_blank">Germany would not block Poland from sending tanks to Ukraine, minister says</a> (Reuters)</li></ul>

The Senate Judiciary Committee on Tuesday held a much-anticipated hearing Live Nation, which owns Ticketmaster. Also yesterday, the Department of Justice filed an antitrust lawsuit against Google’s parent company Alphabet for its alleged monopoly on digital ads. 

Plus, what to know about filing your taxes this year. 

And, a historic Oscars season for Asian actors. 

Guests: Axios' Ashley Gold, Emily Peck and Hope King.

Credits: Axios Today is produced by Niala Boodhoo, Alexandra Botti, Lydia McMullen-Laird, Naomi Shavin, Fonda Mwangi and Alex Sugiura. Music is composed by Evan Viola. You can reach us at podcasts@axios.com. You can text questions, comments and story ideas to Niala as a text or voice memo to 202-918-4893.

Live music execs grilled on Capitol Hill after Taylor Swift tour mess

Justice Department sues Google for "corrupting" ad market

Michelle Yeoh, Stephanie Hsu make 2023 Oscars history

We’ve made it to Wednesday, it’s January 25th.

Today: what to know about filing your taxes this year. Plus, a historic Oscars season for Asian actors. But first, new antitrust scrutiny in Washington – that’s today’s One Big Thing.

NIALA: I was one of the millions of people disappointed by the disastrous Ticketmaster presale process for Taylor Swift back in November, and that process brought attention to the company's dominance of ticket sales.

Well, yesterday, the Senate Judiciary Committee held a much anticipated hearing on Live Nation, which owns Ticketmaster. Also, yesterday, the Department of Justice filed an antitrust lawsuit against Google's parent company Alphabet for its alleged monopoly on digital ads. 

Here to break down what's going on in the antitrust world is Axios’ Tech and Policy Reporter Ashley Gold. Hi Ashley. 

NIALA: So let's start with Ticketmaster. Can you help us zoom out and tell us what is the bigger issue at play here? 

ASHLEY: Absolutely. The bigger issue at play here is that there are not many players in the whole ticketing industry and Ticketmaster is the biggest one. And because they have so much power and they have these exclusive partnerships with venues. They have unchecked power on how tickets are bought and sold for these events. 

NIALA: So how does what's happening with Google compare? 

ASHLEY: Well with Ticketmaster, everybody has had the frustrating experience of wanting to get tickets to a Taylor Swift concert, a sporting event, and you know, not being able to get in, having bots buy up tickets and resell that frustrating feeling when tickets are marked up with excessive fees. 

With Google, it's a little different. We're talking about digital advertising. We all see digital advertisements every day on our phones, on the web when we search on Instagram, but it's a little less clear how those ads all get served up to us. Hint, it's mostly because Google is doing it. There are advertisers and competitors that think it's not fair that Google controls this whole ecosystem and finally the Justice Department took action. 

NIALA: So you wrote that right now is a time of unprecedented antitrust scrutiny. What do you mean by that?

ASHLEY: We're at a time where the federal government is concerned about consolidation across all sorts of markets. It's not just tech or ticketing. It can be farming, airlines, anything else. There's this really sort of a fever pitch of a concern that we've let businesses get too big, we've let businesses acquire other businesses at too rapid a clip, and that there's no competition anymore and that consumers suffer in that we have higher prices and worse experiences because of it. And this is actually something that Democrats and Republicans agree on.

NIALA: So what are you watching for next? 

ASHLEY: I'm watching for what the Senate is going to do after the Ticketmaster hearing. There was sort of a lot of talk of telling the Justice Department to look back into the original agreement it allowed when Ticketmaster and Live Nation merged. Maybe that needs to be reevaluated. Maybe they need to be broken up altogether. And on Google, I'm watching for next steps, but similar to the Microsoft Justice Department case and other pending Google cases at the Justice Department, it's a very slow process.

NIALA: Ashley Gold is a Washington-based tech and policy reporter for us at Axios. Thanks, Ashley.

NIALA: In a moment: how this year’s tax season could look different.

What to know about filing your taxes this year

Tax Season is here and Axios’ Markets Correspondent Emily Peck has been covering what's different this year and what you need to know, including how new changes could affect your bottom line. Hey Emily.

NIALA: Last year, taxpayers pocketed high tax returns on average. Do we expect that will be also true this year?

EMILY: Niala. No. No, we don't. So last year the average tax refund was about $3,000 and that was a big increase from the previous year, and a lot of that was coming from pandemic era tax out, basically. The child tax credit, the child independent care credit, both were beefed up and parents especially took home fatter refunds or they got money during the year. It was kind of a bonanza that's all coming to an end. So, the IRS has been warning people, really for a while, that refunds are gonna be smaller this year.

NIALA:  The child tax credit and the child independent care credit, will that be the biggest change? 

EMILY: Yeah. Other things are like the deduction for charitable donations that they let people take even when they didn't itemize their taxes, that's going away. And of note would be if you bought an electric vehicle in 2022, you can get kind of a big tax credit for that $7,500. But depending on when you bought your car, you may or may not qualify. So, if you purchased your car on or after August 16th, it has to have been assembled in North America to qualify for the credit. See, we are in the weeds now, Niala, but these are important weeds. There's a lot to parse.

NIALA: In previous years, there have been headlines talking about understaffing at the IRS and delays that could cause for individuals waiting to file tax returns. Has any of that been resolved? 

EMILY: Thanks to the Inflation Reduction Act that passed this year, the IRS got an injection of funds and was able to hire more workers. And meanwhile, some of the issues of the past few years were pandemic induced, around backlogs, especially, you know, workers couldn't come to work, they got sick. All the kinds of issues that we've been inundated with over the past few years, and some of that is now easing for the IRS. So not only will they have new people, but the backlog is shrinking. So hopefully they'll be more responsive to taxpayers who call this year than in previous years. 

NIALA: So what should taxpayers expect schedule wise this year in terms of filing?

EMILY:  So everyone knows April 15th as the due date, but this year the due date is April 18th because of the weekend and there's this holiday in D.C. called Emancipation Day. Some people living in Alabama, California, or Georgia, they have until May 15th to file, that's for storm victims. What else to know? Don't file until you have all your forms. Check the IRS's site, it's actually pretty good. Hold off on making plans for your refund since you don't know what your refund is quite yet. Looking at you Niala.

NIALA: Emily Peck is the co-author of the Axios Markets newsletter. Thanks Emily. 

NIALA: The mass shootings in California this week have again thrust us into this all-too-familiar cycle of mourning, anger and fear. That’s why I wanted to ask you: does fear of a mass shooting event affect your life? Do you think about it before going to school - to your place of worship - out to a club or before you attend a cultural celebration? Has it changed your behavior? Please share your thoughts in a voice memo, that you can text to me at 202-918-4893.  And we will be playing them later this week.

A historic Oscars season for Asian actors

NIALA: In the midst of this difficult week there was a little bit of good news for the AAPI community – a historic Oscars nominations announcement yesterday. Axios’ Hope King has more – hey Hope.

NIALA: How many actors of Asian descent were nominated this year?

HOPE: A total of four, in the leading categories of best actress and best supporting actress, as well as best supporting actor.

NIALA: Historically, the Oscars best actress category has been one of the least diverse awards. Michelle Yeoh from “Everything Everywhere All at Once” has been nominated, and she toldT the New York Times, she's over the moon, but pointed out there's been 95 years of Oscars and many amazing actresses from Asia that have come before her.

What does this nomination mean for the academy that's been fighting the #OscarsSoWhite label for many years at this point?

HOPE: You have to remember that they are basing their nominations off of the slate of work that is being produced every year. If there are no films that are already showcasing talents from different backgrounds, then they are really at a loss of people to nominate. So yes, it's important that these nominating organizations are getting more diverse. But I think it's more important that we have a better pipeline overall from story selection, and scripts to producers, and casting directors and even the marketing of films to really generate the hype that films like “Everything Everywhere All at Once” really needs.

NIALA:  For people who haven't seen this, why do you think this film is getting so much buzz?

HOPE: This film is about all the what if’s in your life, and I think that the film itself and,  in its name as well, speaks to the feeling that many of us have at this moment, which is that there is so much going on and that feeling of being overwhelmed is really weighing on so many of us. The film attempts to get at the quote on quote solution of that by connecting it to things that are near and dear to our hearts. And I think that's part of the reason why this film has resonated so widely with so many people.

NIALA: That’s it for us today. I’m Niala Boodhoo - thanks for listening - stay safe and we’ll see you back here tomorrow morning.

New antitrust scrutiny in Washington

Big Tech

The Senate Judiciary Committee on Tuesday held a much-anticipated hearing Live Nation, which owns Ticketmaster. Also yesterday, the Department of Justice filed an antitrust lawsuit against Google’s parent company Alphabet for its alleged monopoly on digital ads. <ul><li>Plus, what to know about filing your taxes this year. </li><li>And, a historic Oscars season for Asian actors. </li></ul>Guests: Axios&#x27; Ashley Gold, Emily Peck and Hope King.Credits: Axios Today is produced by Niala Boodhoo, Alexandra Botti, Lydia McMullen-Laird, Naomi Shavin, Fonda Mwangi and Alex Sugiura. Music is composed by Evan Viola. You can reach us at <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="podcasts@axios.com" data-vars-click-url="mailto:podcasts@axios.com" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="mailto:podcasts@axios.com" target="_blank">podcasts@axios.com</a>. You can text questions, comments and story ideas to Niala as a text or voice memo to 202-918-4893.Go Deeper:<ul><li><a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Live music execs grilled on Capitol Hill after Taylor Swift tour mess" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/01/24/ticketmaster-taylor-swift-senate-committee-hearing-updates" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/01/24/ticketmaster-taylor-swift-senate-committee-hearing-updates" target="_self">Live music execs grilled on Capitol Hill after Taylor Swift tour mess</a></li><li><a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Justice Department sues Google for &quot;corrupting&quot; ad market" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/01/24/justice-department-google-antitrust-lawsuit" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/01/24/justice-department-google-antitrust-lawsuit" target="_self">Justice Department sues Google for &quot;corrupting&quot; ad market</a></li><li><a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Michelle Yeoh, Stephanie Hsu make 2023 Oscars history" data-vars-click-url="https://eden.axios.com/editor/story/b2f24ea7-8d63-455e-adc6-25d3bc983f6b/content?axios-web-dashboard=true" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://eden.axios.com/editor/story/b2f24ea7-8d63-455e-adc6-25d3bc983f6b/content?axios-web-dashboard=true" target="_blank">Michelle Yeoh, Stephanie Hsu make 2023 Oscars history</a></li></ul>

The U.S. has been rocked this week by multiple mass shootings. We asked you if fear of shootings is affecting your life and behavior, and we heard from one group more than any other: parents.

Plus, Germany and the U.S. agree to send tanks to Ukraine.

Guests: Northwestern University’s Dr. Sheehan Fisher

More mass shootings in U.S. than days in 2023 so far

At least 7 dead in Half Moon Bay shooting

U.S. and Germany to send battle tanks to Ukraine

Today on the show: Germany and the U.S. agree to send tanks to Ukraine. But first, mass shootings are keeping parents in a cycle of fear. We hear from an expert, and from you. That’s today’s One Big Thing.

NIALA: Yesterday, we talked about the cycle that we're all in with shootings and how much that's prompting fear and stress and anxiety. And we asked you to share how this is affecting you and your behavior. We heard from so many of you – especially parents. Here's what some of you had to say. Just a note that some of this is tough to listen to.

AARON: I feel sad and helpless knowing that I don't think anything's ever gonna change honestly. What makes me scared is knowing that my two-year-old son is gonna be going to school in a few years and I would just be absolutely destroyed if anything were to happen to him. I live in a small town in Idaho of about 10,000 and you might think that nothing's gonna happen here, but you look at Uvalde in a small town like that and you just never know what could happen. And so I just live in fear.

WESLEY: Hey Niala. Wesley from Texas. Gun violence has definitely changed the way we think about events that we could attend. We were very excited to go and see the new Little Mermaid movie that comes out in May, but we're afraid to go and see it in the theater. We're gonna have to watch it at home.

APRIL: Hi, my name is April. I'm 31, and I am from Tennessee. And I would say that the fear of mass shooting affected my life tremendously. I have a seven-year-old who is in first grade feel guilty every single day for sending him to public school because I don't know if he's safe, but it's like you want 'em to go and have friends that there's a constant reminder because their only store on the way to my son's school is a gun store, and I'm just hoping every single day that they're responsible and that my kid makes a home safe.

NIALA: Thanks to all of you for sharing that, and because we heard from so many parents, we wanted to dive deep today on this. 

There's a lot of data that suggests this is a really common struggle for parents. An American Psychological Association survey after back to back shootings in 2019, 62% of parents said they lived in fear of their children becoming victims of a mass shooting. 71% said the possibility of mass violence was adding stress to their lives.

To understand and unpack this a little bit more. We're joined now by Dr. Sheen Fisher, he's an associate professor of psychology at Northwestern University's Feinberg School of Medicine. He studies parents and families and is joining us now from Chicago. Hi, Dr. Fisher.

SHEEHAN FISHER: Hi. Thank you for inviting me. 

NIALA: Can I start by just asking, what's your reaction to what you just heard from our listeners?

Mass shootings are keeping parents in a cycle of fear

Mass shootings are keeping parents in a cycle of fear.

The U.S. has been rocked this week by multiple mass shootings. We asked you if fear of shootings is affecting your life and behavior, and we heard from one group more than any other: parents.<ul><li>Plus, Germany and the U.S. agree to send tanks to Ukraine.</li></ul>Guests: Northwestern University’s Dr. Sheehan FisherCredits: Axios Today is produced by Niala Boodhoo, Alexandra Botti, Naomi Shavin, Fonda Mwangi and Alex Sugiura. Music is composed by Evan Viola. You can reach us at <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="podcasts@axios.com" data-vars-click-url="mailto:podcasts@axios.com" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="mailto:podcasts@axios.com" target="_blank">podcasts@axios.com</a>. You can text questions, comments and story ideas to Niala as a text or voice memo to 202-918-4893.Go Deeper:<ul><li><a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="More mass shootings in U.S. than days in 2023 so far" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/01/25/mass-shootings-us-2023-more-than-days" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/01/25/mass-shootings-us-2023-more-than-days" target="_self">More mass shootings in U.S. than days in 2023 so far</a></li><li><a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="At least 7 dead in Half Moon Bay shooting" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/01/24/half-moon-bay-california-mass-shooting" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/01/24/half-moon-bay-california-mass-shooting" target="_self">At least 7 dead in Half Moon Bay shooting</a></li><li><a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="U.S. and Germany to send battle tanks to Ukraine" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/01/25/germany-us-ukraine-leopard-abrams-battle-tanks" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/01/25/germany-us-ukraine-leopard-abrams-battle-tanks" target="_self">U.S. and Germany to send battle tanks to Ukraine</a></li></ul>

Niala Boodhoo

Stories

Population shifts worldwide and why they matter

Mass shootings are keeping parents in a cycle of fear

New antitrust scrutiny in Washington

Cautious optimism at the Fed

10 people killed in Monterey Park mass shooting