National

Data: RepresentUS; Note: Montana has told counties they can opt into universal vote-by-mail; Map: Naema Ahmed/Axios

Millions of Americans who normally vote in person on election day will turn to early voting or mail-in ballots this fall — but that only works if you understand your state's election rules, deadlines and how to ensure your vote is counted.

Driving the news: Axios is launching an interactive resource, built on research by RepresentUs, a nonpartisan election reform group, to help voters across the country to get the information they need.

"This election year, voters need to take more time and effort to navigate the challenges of a pandemic," U.S. Elections Assistance Commissioner Donald Palmer tells Axios.

It will be critical for voters to have updated information on their options "to make sure that this election is a true reflection of the will of the people," said Matt Strabone, senior counsel for RepresentUs.

Data: RepresentUS; Note:(*) Ballots will automatically be sent to voters in these states. If you are unsure whether you will be sent a ballot because you are a new voter, have been inactive or changed addresses, you can find online resources at the links for checking or updating your voter information. Montana has told counties they can opt into universal vote-by-mail; Table: Naema Ahmed/Axios

Why it matters: The more early voting there is, the greater the impacts if there are problems with the U.S. Postal Service, ballot shortages, confusion, lawsuits or delays.

North Carolina will be the first state to send out absentee ballots, on Sept. 4.

Minnesota and South Dakota will be the first states to allow voters to cast ballots early in person, starting Sept. 18. 

Texas, Tennessee, South Carolina, Mississippi, Louisiana, Kentucky, Indiana and New York require an excuse to vote absentee — though New York is poised to change, and more may follow. 

11 states require absentee ballots to be notarized, have a witness signature or be submitted with a copy of an ID. If not done properly, ballots could be tossed. 

32 states require mailed-in ballots to be received by Election Day, rules that could present problems if postal service delays continue through November. 

Voters in Rhode Island have until October 13 to request absentee ballots — and Oct. 20 in New Mexico and Nevada — the earliest cut off dates for submitting absentee ballot applications.  

The other side:  California, Colorado, Hawaii, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Vermont, Washington and D.C. are automatically sending voters mail-in ballots — not just applications, as even more states are doing.

Montana also has told counties they can opt into universal vote-by-mail, which all of them did in the primaries.

Between the lines: Taking advantage of early voting options could help limit crowds and long lines on election day, and lessen the risk of coronavirus infections. 

What's next: Some election rules could still change. The Brennan Center is tracking litigation in 32 states, dealing with mail voting, early voting, voter purges, polling places and other election issues. 

Data visualizations are being updated to reflect new voting information and rule changes.

Correction: An earlier version of this story stated Georgia's early voting date as Oct. 5, it is Oct. 12. It was also updated to fix incorrect links, and change early voting dates for Rhode Island and New York.

When and how to vote in all 50 states

Understand your state's election rules and deadlines for early and absentee voting.

Politics

2020 elections

2020 election

Joe Biden

Millions of Americans who normally vote in person on election day will turn to early voting or mail-in ballots this fall — but that only works if you understand your state&#x27;s election rules, deadlines and how to ensure your vote is counted.Driving the news: Axios is launching an interactive resource, built on research by <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="RepresentUs" data-vars-click-url="http://www.represent.us/votebymail2020" data-vars-content-id="307c3d17-ee57-4a1b-8bad-182ca1cdb752" data-vars-headline="When and how to vote in all 50 states" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="http://www.represent.us/votebymail2020" target="_blank">RepresentUs</a>, a nonpartisan election reform group, to help voters across the country to get the information they need.

President Biden has made the COVID-19 crisis and a post-Trump return to national unity and traditional democratic ideals his top priorities. From vaccinations to stimulus to schools, Biden is seeking bipartisan compromise while showing a willingness to use executive authority and bare Democratic majorities in the U.S. House and Senate to implement his policies. Republican leaders are navigating deep party divisions over if and how to move beyond former President Trump.

Politics & Policy

Data: United States Elections Project. Graphic: Naema Ahmed/Axios

The Electoral College by vote per capita

This interactive graphic looks at the voting power in the Electoral College by state.

Data graphics

Nearly 70% more properties in the U.S. are at substantial risk of flooding compared to government estimates, new peer-reviewed analysis shows.

Why it matters: Increased flooding, including from sea level rise and intensifying rains, is one of the clearest and most expensive impacts from rising global temperatures.

Driving the news: The data will soon feed a new feature on Realtor.com that displays flood risk rankings of nearly every U.S. home. It's part of an initiative by First Street Foundation, a nonprofit research and technology firm.

You can search now for your home now on FloodFactor.com, a website run by First Street, which is backed by private-foundation money. 

Realtor.com plans to integrate the data soon on its website, though it doesn't have a specific launch date yet, a spokeswoman said Sunday.

“There are millions of Americans who have substantial flood risk and have no idea and now they’ll be able to access that ... Having that data available will change the perspective of flood risk in this country. It now makes it meaningful and personal.” 

Matthew Eby, founder and executive director, First Street Foundation

The Federal Emergency Management Agency, which manages America’s flood risk for the government, classifies 8.7 million properties as facing substantial risk from flooding. 

First Street’s data shows 14.6 million properties.

That’s six million households and property owners who the organization says have “underestimated or been unaware of their current risk.”

The discrepancy exists, the group says, because it uses more up-to-date climate data, analyzes precipitation as a standalone risk and includes areas FEMA has not.

The areas with the largest newly revealed risk include large swaths of the Midwest and inland Western states that face risk from rain or river flooding. FEMA's traditional focus has been coastal areas. (Check out the chart on page nine of its report.)

Still, the risk is objectively larger for coastal states and grows more quickly in those regions out to 2050, as you can see in the graphic below. 

That’s because rising sea levels and coastal storms grow more intense more quickly — fueled by a warmer atmosphere and sea surface temperatures — compared to inland precipitation events, according to Jeremy Porter, director of research and development at First Street.

Adapted from First Street Foundation; Chart: Naema Ahmed/Axios

The intrigue: Every property in the U.S. — some 142 million — will receive a “Flood Factor” score from 1 to 10, based on its cumulative flood risk over a 30-year mortgage, and will be included on an interactive tool, FloodFactor.com, hosted by First Street.

Some companies have proprietary models that are similar, but nothing exists like this that’s publicly available and that will be attached to a consumer-facing service like Realtor.com, First Street officials say.

Yes, but: Witold Krajewski, a hydrology professor at the University of Iowa who is part of a panel of outside experts reviewing the analysis, said users should keep in mind the amount of uncertainty inherent in any dataset as comprehensive as this. "As long as people approach it with caution, this can be very useful," he told Axios. 

One specific shortcoming of the model for now is that it doesn’t account for current and potential future adaptation measures property owners may take, such as building ever-higher seawalls or more levees. First Street experts intend to incorporate that into the data over time.

What’s next: First Street plans to sell its data to for-profit firms, such as those that have already expressed interest from the insurance and real-estate sectors. This will help fund parallel models they plan to launch on other climate-driven weather phenomena, such as heat and drought.

Rising seas threaten an American institution: the 30-year mortgage (NYT)

Sea level rise already causing billions in home value to disappear (Axios) 

Editor’s note: The name Federal Emergency Management Agency was corrected.

Millions more homes face flood risk than previously thought

A new ranking will help home owners and buyers.

Illustration of pattern of houses partially submerged under water

Energy

Harder Line

Column / Harder Line

Science

Future

Climate change

Nearly 70% more properties in the U.S. are at substantial risk of flooding compared to government estimates, new <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="peer-reviewed analysis" data-vars-click-url="https://assets.firststreet.org/uploads/2020/06/first_street_foundation__first_national_flood_risk_assessment.pdf" data-vars-content-id="6b5295fe-4f9d-4bc8-8008-a2ef9561f1d1" data-vars-headline="Millions more homes face flood risk than previously thought" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://assets.firststreet.org/uploads/2020/06/first_street_foundation__first_national_flood_risk_assessment.pdf" target="_blank">peer-reviewed analysis</a> shows.Why it matters: Increased flooding, including from sea level rise and intensifying rains, is one of the clearest and most expensive impacts from rising global temperatures.

Ominous forecasts about the impact of climate change serve as the backdrop for the world — led by U.S. lawmakers and companies — to debate big action on the problem, which could upend energy systems and our way of life.

Energy & Environment

Reproduced from Streetlight Data; Map: Axios Visuals

Biking in America’s biggest cities has dropped due to the coronavirus pandemic, but the decline is less than for driving, according to new data exclusively shared with Axios. 

Why it matters: Skyrocketing bike sales and anecdotal evidence suggests cycling could emerge a winner in the pandemic. But this data suggests a bike boom is — so far — unlikely to materialize or make a dent in oil demand.

Where it stands: Cities where commuting by bike is most common, like New York, Philadelphia and San Francisco, are also the ones that saw the sharpest declines in bike travel in May compared to last year, according to research from Streetlight Data, a transportation analytics firm.

“The commuting slice that falls out of cities like New York and San Francisco where that mileage on bikes is just not there because bike commuting isn’t there," said Martin Morzynski, Streetlight’s vice president of marketing. "And recreational activity isn’t necessarily enough to offset the difference." 

The data shows, though, that cycling dropped less than driving. In Portland, Ore., for example, bike miles traveled fell by 10%, but vehicular miles traveled dropped by 35%.

The intrigue: Cycling doubled in smaller cities, including some known more for recreational cycling, including Ogden and Provo, Utah. The baseline number of bike miles traveled is far less than it is for larger metropolitan areas though, Morzynski says.

How it works: Streetlight Data uses location-based data, essentially pings from cell-phone apps, that can differentiate between driving, cycling and walking based on the cadence of pings.

What we’re watching: Although we know bike sales are skyrocketing, we don’t know if people will actually end up riding them long-term. The data suggests those bikes will start collecting dust soon. “It might be like the kid who buys the toy and throws it out a week later,” said Morzynski. “Our hope is that this actually starts to create new habits.” 

Coronavirus creates risks for shared mobility

Coronavirus brings down biking — but not as much as driving

Commuter cycling dropped off, and that's the way most people use bikes.

Transportation

Oil companies

Biking in America’s biggest cities has dropped due to the coronavirus pandemic, but the decline is less than for driving, according to new data exclusively shared with Axios. Why it matters: Skyrocketing bike sales and anecdotal evidence suggests cycling could emerge a winner in the pandemic. But this data suggests a bike boom is — so far — unlikely to materialize or make a dent in oil demand.

Data: The COVID Tracking Project; Map: Naema Ahmed/Axios

The percentage of coronavirus tests coming back positive is rising across the country, including in states that are also seeing a spike in cases. 

Why it matters: High positivity rates indicate a worsening outbreak, and put together with the rise in cases and hospitalizations across the country, suggest that the U.S. is in bad shape.

The big picture: The virus is spreading throughout the U.S. It's not concentrated in any one region, as it was during the previous waves. 

It's unlikely to spread only among young, healthy people. The American Health Care Association and the National Center for Assisted Living released a report yesterday highlighting the link between community spread and nursing home cases, and showing a recent uptick in both.

By the numbers: Nationally, the positivity rate was 5.3%, on average, over the last 7 days — an increase from the 4.7% positivity rate over the prior 7 days.

For context, the World Health Organization recommended in May that the positivity rate remain below 5% for at least two weeks before governments reopen. 17 states and D.C. currently met that threshold over the last week.

Idaho, Nevada, South Dakota and Iowa each had a positivity rate greater than 25% over the last 7 days. Nearly half of coronavirus tests in Iowa are coming back positive.

The bottom line: The virus already has a firm foothold in most of the country, and cold weather — which is right around the corner — will likely accelerate today's trends.

This all means more deaths, more economic devastation, and more isolation and psychological strain. If we'd gotten the virus under control during the summer, we'd have saved ourselves from a lot of this coming pain.

The next wave of the coronavirus is gaining steam

The number of tests coming back positive is climbing.

Health Care

Coronavirus

The percentage of coronavirus tests coming back positive is rising across the country, including in states that are also seeing a spike in cases. Why it matters: High positivity rates indicate a worsening outbreak, and put together with the <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="rise in cases" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-cases-infections-rising-increasing-2ddca651-d3b0-40e5-a15c-fd5dfa749f3e.html" data-vars-content-id="aabcc05d-228b-4eba-bff1-1839dc6c6318" data-vars-headline="The next wave of the coronavirus is gaining steam" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-cases-infections-rising-increasing-2ddca651-d3b0-40e5-a15c-fd5dfa749f3e.html" target="_self">rise in cases</a> and <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="hospitalizations" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-hospitalizations-increasing-abc7e1f7-51b1-4b5c-a2e8-ab55685ac522.html" data-vars-content-id="aabcc05d-228b-4eba-bff1-1839dc6c6318" data-vars-headline="The next wave of the coronavirus is gaining steam" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-hospitalizations-increasing-abc7e1f7-51b1-4b5c-a2e8-ab55685ac522.html" target="_self">hospitalizations</a> across the country, suggest that the U.S. is in bad shape.

The U.S. faces a range of health care flashpoints — unaffordable drugs, opioids, vaping — as we debate whether to adopt universal care. For now, the Affordable Care Act is the law of the land, but Republicans want to issue it a final death blow.

Naema Ahmed

Stories

The Electoral College by vote per capita

The next wave of the coronavirus is gaining steam

When and how to vote in all 50 states

Coronavirus brings down biking — but not as much as driving

Millions more homes face flood risk than previously thought