National

ANKARA — With a fresh mandate after Sunday's presidential election in hand, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is expected to focus on the country's growing economic crisis and regional challenges amid the ongoing war in Ukraine. 

Driving the news: Turkey’s economic outlook appears increasingly vulnerable ahead of Erdoğan's third term. The Turkish lira, meanwhile, hit a new low this week, with Morgan Stanley saying the currency could continue its slide this year faster than expected.

The country’s central bank reserves dropped into negative territory last week for the first time in 21 years.

What to expect: Attracting foreign investment will be key for Erdoğan, especially as his party seeks to win back control in the Istanbul and Ankara municipalities, which are currently led by the opposition. 

Erdoğan is expected to visit Gulf countries to thank them for their financial support.

He will also likely continue to forge close ties with Moscow in diplomatic and economic terms, helping Russia bypass Western sanctions and trying to render Turkey more independent from the West.

At the same time, Erdoğan could unblock Sweden’s access to NATO in return for securing a commitment from Washington for a deal on F-16 fighter jets ahead of NATO’s mid-July summit in Lithuania.

The issue came up in a Monday phone call between President Biden and Erdoğan. "He still wants to work on something on the F-16s. I told him we wanted a deal with Sweden, so let's get that done. And so we'll be back in touch with one another," Biden told reporters after the call. 

Between the lines: The ultranationalist and Islamist parties in Erdoğan's parliamentary coalition are expected to have a lot of influence on policy-making. 

State of play: The new Cabinet is expected to be announced this weekend. 

Erdoğan has reportedly held talks with Mehmet Simsek, a former finance minister who enjoys trust in foreign markets, signaling a possible shift in his unorthodox economic policies, including higher interest rates, which the opposition had pledged to reverse.

Reports also suggest Erdoğan is considering appointing two of his closest confidants — presidential spokesperson Ibrahim Kalin and Hakan Fidan, the head of the Turkish Intelligence Agency — to the new Cabinet.

What to expect from Erdoğan's third term as Turkey's economic woes worsen

Erdoğan is expected to focus on the country's growing economic crisis and regional challenges amid the ongoing war in Ukraine.

Erdoğan. Photo: Cemal Yurttas/Dia images via Getty

Turkey

ANKARA — With a fresh mandate after Sunday&#x27;s presidential election in hand, Turkish President Recep Tayyip <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Erdoğan" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/05/08/turkey-erdogan-election-misinformation-polls" data-vars-content-id="0ba745d5-9049-4fc5-bb9b-110b7ec676ba" data-vars-headline="What to expect from Erdoğan&#x27;s third term as Turkey&#x27;s economic woes worsen" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/05/08/turkey-erdogan-election-misinformation-polls" target="_self">Erdoğan</a> is expected to focus on the country&#x27;s growing economic crisis and regional challenges amid the ongoing war in Ukraine. Driving the news: Turkey’s economic outlook appears increasingly vulnerable ahead of Erdoğan&#x27;s third term. The Turkish lira, meanwhile, hit a new low this week, with <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Morgan Stanley" data-vars-click-url="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-29/turkish-lira-may-slide-29-after-erdogan-victory-morgan-stanley-says" data-vars-content-id="0ba745d5-9049-4fc5-bb9b-110b7ec676ba" data-vars-headline="What to expect from Erdoğan&#x27;s third term as Turkey&#x27;s economic woes worsen" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-29/turkish-lira-may-slide-29-after-erdogan-victory-morgan-stanley-says" target="_blank">Morgan Stanley</a> saying the currency could continue its slide this year faster than expected.

China is becoming the most formidable rival America has faced, and the risk of confrontation with Russia, North Korea or Iran still looms. Authoritarians are rising, the chaotic Afghanistan exit revealed the limits of U.S. power, and the pandemic, climate change and other critical challenges continue to pose grave threats.

World

ANKARA, Turkey — Turkey is increasingly signaling its readiness for a thawing of relations with the Assad regime in Syria.

Why it matters: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his Syrian counterpart, Bashar al-Assad, were at one point close allies, but the two leaders have not been in contact since the outbreak of the Syrian civil war. 

Erdoğan and Assad have traded harsh accusations — with the Turkish leader stressing that the Syrian president must be ousted. 

But Ankara, which has backed the Syrian rebels, has recently shifted from seeking Assad's removal to prioritizing domestic security by halting the advancement of Kurdish fighters along Turkey’s borders with Syria.

Driving the news: In a call with Vladimir Putin last week, Erdoğan proposed the Russian president hold a trilateral summit between the leaders of Turkey, Russia and Syria to discuss joint counterterrorism. 

“First, our intelligence organizations should come together, then our defense ministers and then our foreign ministers should meet," Erdoğan told reporters. 

Hakan Fidan, the head of Turkey’s National Intelligence Organization, has met with his Syrian counterpart, Ali Mamlouk, in Damascus several times this year to try to arrange a meeting between the foreign ministers.

The new Turkish position was welcomed by Russia, which has already been preparing the path for a possible meeting between the two leaders.

Between the lines: Any reconciliation between Turkey and Syria is expected to happen gradually. 

Damascus has so far been cautious about re-engaging with Ankara, especially ahead of Turkey's presidential and parliamentary elections that are scheduled for June. 

State of play: Damascus considers Turkey, which has a military presence in large swaths of northern Syria, to be an occupying power. 

Erdoğan for months has vowed to begin a new ground incursion into the region against Kurdish groups. Turkey recently launched drone, air and artillery strikes across the border into Syria. 

Ankara views the People’s Protection Units (YPG) in Syria as an extension of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party, a militant group designated as a terrorist organization by both the U.S. and Turkey. 

Ankara and Damascus are on the same page about ending the presence of the YPG and U.S. troops, who have backed the mostly Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces in northern Syria. 

The big picture: A Turkish-Syrian rapprochement would require a detailed plan for the repatriation of more than 3.7 million Syrian refugees currently in Turkey.

The prospect of sending Syrian refugees back to their homeland would boost Erdoğan's chances for re-election next year. 

Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the leader of Turkey's main opposition party, known as the Republican People’s Party, said in February that if he were elected, Turkey would take normalization steps with the Assad regime and send all the Syrian refugees back to their home country.

What they’re saying: Former U.S. envoy to Syria James Jeffrey, who visited Ankara in early December, said in an interview on the Turkish channel NTV that Turkey won’t get anything from meeting the Syrian regime.

But Erdoğan recently emphasized that Turkey could “get things on track with Syria. There can be no resentment in politics."

What to watch: It's still unclear to what extent Ankara end its support to Syrian opposition forces fighting Damascus and whether Ankara will accept Assad’s demand to withdraw its troops from Syria. 

Turkey signals potential rapprochement with Syria's Assad

The two leaders haven't been in contact since the outbreak of Syria's civil war.

From left: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Photos: Mikhail Svetlov/Joseph Eid/Getty Images/AFP 

ANKARA, Turkey — Turkey is increasingly signaling its readiness for a thawing of relations with the Assad regime in Syria.Why it matters: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his Syrian counterpart, Bashar al-Assad, were at one point close allies, but the two leaders have not been in contact since the outbreak of the Syrian civil war.

ANKARA, Turkey — The attack that killed nine tourists in northern Iraq last week opened a significant rift between Ankara and Baghdad and could significantly impact Turkey’s military plans in Iraq and Syria. 

Driving the news: The tourists, including a child, were killed last Wednesday after artillery shells hit a park in the Duhok governorate in the Kurdish region of Iraq.

The Iraqi government blamed Turkey for the attack, summoned the Turkish ambassador and demanded an official apology for the strike, which it called a violation of its sovereignty. It also demanded that all Turkish forces withdraw from Iraq. 

The Turkish government denied any responsibility and claimed that the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) was behind the attack.

Why it matters: Any further escalation between Turkey and Iraq could damage bilateral ties between the two neighboring countries, especially when Iraq is heavily dependent economically on trade with Turkey.

Last year, bilateral trade reached $19.5 billion, with Iraq becoming Turkey's fifth-largest export market. But the Baghdad Chamber of Commerce has recently urged Iraqis to stop trading with Turkey.

Ongoing negotiations over the water-sharing deal about the Tigris and Euphrates River basins as well as oil trading with the Kurdistan Regional Government also bind the two countries together.

State of play: The UN Security Council strongly condemned the attack and urged its members to “cooperate actively” with Iraq on the investigation.

The UN special envoy for Iraq said at a Security Council meeting yesterday that Turkey and Iraq were ready for a joint investigation.

The big picture: Turkey has several military bases in northern Iraq, and it conducts regular cross-border military operations there to target PKK militants.

Ankara has ramped up its operations in the region in recent months, leading to Iraqi government concerns as well as outrage from Iran, which fights for influence in these areas. 

Meanwhile, Western countries, including the U.S., have urged Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan not to make good on his recent threats to launch a new operation against the PKK-affiliated YPG militants in northern Syria.

Last week's attack in northern Iraq could increase opposition to any new Turkish operation in Syria. 

What to watch: Turkey is not expected to withdraw from Iraq permanently, but it may reduce its military activities in the country on a temporary basis to try to calm international outrage.

Yes, but: A withdrawal of Turkish forces from Iraq could be perceived as weakness by Turkish nationalistic voters ahead of next year's parliamentary elections. 

Rift grows between Ankara and Baghdad after attack in northern Iraq

Nine tourists were killed in the Kurdish region of Iraq in an attack Baghdad blames on Turkey and Ankara blames on the PKK.

People in Mosul protest attack that killed nine tourists in northern Iraq. 

People in Mosul protest attack that killed nine tourists in northern Iraq. Photo: Ismael Adnan/picture alliance via Getty Images

ANKARA, Turkey — The attack that killed nine tourists in northern Iraq <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="last week" data-vars-click-url="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/least-four-killed-turkish-rocket-strike-iraqs-dohuk-province-sources-say-2022-07-20/" data-vars-content-id="ad7ae12d-27d2-41d1-86db-d4435081ff9f" data-vars-headline="Rift grows between Ankara and Baghdad after attack in northern Iraq" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/least-four-killed-turkish-rocket-strike-iraqs-dohuk-province-sources-say-2022-07-20/" target="_blank">last week</a> opened a significant rift between Ankara and Baghdad and could significantly impact Turkey’s military plans in Iraq and Syria. Driving the news: The tourists, including a child, were killed last Wednesday after artillery shells hit a park in the Duhok governorate in the Kurdish region of Iraq.

ANKARA, Turkey — Turkey and the U.S. recently announced the launch of a "strategic mechanism" aimed at repairing relations and unlocking potential cooperation in areas of defense, the economy and counter-terrorism. 

Why it matters: Relations between the two NATO allies have been strained in recent years over a number of issues, including Turkey’s purchase of Russia's S-400 missile defense systems, U.S. support for the Kurds in Syria and human rights issues. 

Driving the news: U.S. Under Secretary of State Victoria Nuland met with Turkish Deputy Foreign Minister Sedat Önal in Ankara last week to "review topics of mutual interest." Nuland also met with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s senior adviser Ibrahim Kalin.

Nuland's visit was followed by that of U.S. Department of Commerce Under Secretary Marisa Lago, who held meetings to "advance the U.S.-Turkey commercial relationship and promote clean and secure energy alternatives in the region."

Under the rapprochement process with Washington, Ankara said it also prioritized its procurement request for new F-16 jets and modernization kits from the U.S. to upgrade its air force.

Turkey’s top defense industry officials were sanctioned in December 2020 over the S-400 acquisition, and Turkey was also expelled from the F-35 fighter jet program.

The State Department recently submitted a letter to Congress supporting the sale of F-16 fighter jets to Turkey.

Between the lines: The launch of the "strategic mechanism" comes as Turkey, which shares borders with Russia and Ukraine in the Black Sea, acts as a mediator between Kyiv and Moscow.

The Ukrainian crisis helped Turkey to get closer to the West, but long-standing tensions remain over the country's foreign policy and democratic backsliding.

The big picture: Nuland also visited Cyprus, where she stressed the importance of decreasing the region's dependence on Russian oil and gas.

She called the proposed plan to supply Europe with natural gas from the eastern Mediterranean too expensive, saying it would be better to build alternative energy resources.

She also called for cooperation between Turkey, Greece, Israel, Egypt and Cyprus on the transfer of liquid natural gas to Europe.

Turkey and U.S. work to repair strained relations

They recently announced the launch of a "strategic mechanism" aimed at repairing relations and unlocking potential cooperation.

Turkey and U.S. flags in Ankara. Photo: Evrim Aydin/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

ANKARA, Turkey — Turkey and the U.S. recently <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="announced" data-vars-click-url="https://www.state.gov/u-s-turkey-joint-statement-on-the-strategic-mechanism/" data-vars-content-id="c67adbf9-591f-486c-bcb1-86b96ec11c23" data-vars-headline="Turkey and U.S. work to repair strained relations" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.state.gov/u-s-turkey-joint-statement-on-the-strategic-mechanism/" target="_blank">announced</a> the launch of a &quot;strategic mechanism&quot; aimed at repairing relations and unlocking potential cooperation in areas of defense, the economy and counter-terrorism. Why it matters: Relations between the two NATO allies have been strained in recent years over a number of issues, including Turkey’s purchase of Russia&#x27;s S-400 missile defense systems, U.S. support for the Kurds in Syria and human rights issues.

President Biden has made the COVID-19 crisis and a post-Trump return to national unity and traditional democratic ideals his top priorities. From vaccinations to stimulus to schools, Biden is seeking bipartisan compromise while showing a willingness to use executive authority and bare Democratic majorities in the U.S. House and Senate to implement his policies. Republican leaders are navigating deep party divisions over if and how to move beyond former President Trump.

Politics & Policy

ANKARA — Turkey's May 14 election is the toughest race in two decades for President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and it could be one of the most pivotal elections in Turkey's history. 

Driving the news: Erdoğan and opposition candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu both held large rallies across the country in recent days, with most polls showing a neck-and-neck race or Kılıçdaroğlu slightly ahead.

Erdoğan has used his control over the media to his advantage. State-run network TRT gave Erdoğan 32 hours of coverage in April, and Kılıçdaroğlu a mere 32 minutes.

Erdoğan is promising free gas, wage hikes and tax reductions, and he's highlighting Turkey's first electric car and a new battle tank to give a sense of forward progress.

The flip side: The opposition is focusing on the things that are getting worse after 20 years of Erdoğan — the cost of living, human rights — and promising to restore Turkey's parliamentary system.

In a divisive campaign where Erdoğan and his allies have played on identity politics, Kılıçdaroğlu challenged a political taboo by speaking about his heritage as an Alevi, a minority Muslim sect.

Two recent incidents have sparked concerns of potential post-election violence if the opposition wins.

A rock hurled by a young protester broke a window on Kılıçdaroğlu's campaign bus on Tuesday, two days after protesters pelted Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, an opposition vice president candidate, with stones during a speech. 

Several government officials recently claimed the West was trying to oust Erdoğan in a "political coup."

State of play: If neither candidate wins a majority, as appears likely, there will be a runoff on May 28.

Conservative and older voters tend to back Erdoğan, while frustrated younger voters and urban secularists are more likely to vote for Kılıçdaroğlu.

Turnout was 86% in 2018, and even more voters are likely to cast ballots this time around. Two groups that could swing the outcome are the 5 million young people eligible to vote for the first time and Turkey's large Kurdish minority.

Parliamentary elections will be held simultaneously on Sunday. Erdoğan's hopes in the runoff will get a boost if his coalition wins a parliamentary majority, but he'll be greatly damaged if it doesn't.

What to watch: The outcome of the election will have a major bearing not just on Turkey's economic crisis and democratic trajectory, but also on its relations with the West, Russia, China and regional players, including Israel.

What to watch for in Turkey's pivotal election

Turkey's May 14 election is the toughest race in two decades for President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

Campaign posters with photos of Turkey's presidential candidates, the leader of the opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) Kemal Kilicdaroglu and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan

Campaign posters with photos of Turkey's presidential candidates displayed in Istanbul. Photo: Umit Turhan Coskun/NurPhoto via Getty Images

ANKARA — Turkey&#x27;s May 14 election is the toughest race in two decades for <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/05/08/turkey-erdogan-election-misinformation-polls" data-vars-content-id="dae6006b-2e44-4a56-b99c-060a738df5e2" data-vars-headline="What to watch for in Turkey&#x27;s pivotal election" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/05/08/turkey-erdogan-election-misinformation-polls" target="_self">President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan</a>, and it could be one of the most pivotal elections in Turkey&#x27;s history. Driving the news: Erdoğan and opposition candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu both held large rallies across the country in recent days, with most polls showing a neck-and-neck race or Kılıçdaroğlu slightly ahead.

Menekse Tokyay

Stories

What to expect from Erdoğan's third term as Turkey's economic woes worsen

What to watch for in Turkey's pivotal election

Turkey signals potential rapprochement with Syria's Assad

Rift grows between Ankara and Baghdad after attack in northern Iraq

Turkey and U.S. work to repair strained relations