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Bolivia is poised between electoral uncertainty and political turmoil amid growing concerns that election day fraud may deny opposition candidate Carlos Mesa the chance to face incumbent president Evo Morales in a December 15 runoff.

The big picture: The Supreme Court's controversial decision to let Morales run for another term set a disillusioned backdrop for Sunday's vote, following a 2016 citizen's referendum that had disapproved of the rule change. Polling suggests a runoff could boost Mesa's chances, making Bolivian voters who already harbor doubts about the transparency of the electoral system even less likely to accept a first-round Morales victory.

Where it stands: In a reversal from preliminary results announced on election night, with nearly 97% reporting, the electoral tribunal reported that Morales won 46.49% of the vote and Mesa won 37.01%.

Receiving over 40% of the vote, while also leading the closest opponent by more than a 10% margin, would allow Morales to avoid a runoff.

Mesa has rejected the results and called for Bolivians to take to the streets in protest. The Organization of American States and the European Union have called for an audit and the government has said it endorses a recount.

Isolated incidents of violence have broken out and demonstrations by supporters of both sides look set to continue, raising the risk of clashes.

Between the lines: Morales’s star was already fading, in the wake of corruption scandals, leadership fatigue and economic anxiety.

From 2006 to 2013, when mineral-rich Bolivia benefitted from the global commodities boom, Morales commanded 60% majorities at the polls and was seen as a regional icon of both indigenous political identity and responsible leftwing nationalism, singularly capable of balancing social transformation among the poor with growth for the business sector.

With those free-spending days in past, Bolivia still grows 3%–4% a year, faster than most of its neighbors. But without any major natural gas discoveries of late, Morales faces tough economic decisions and has fewer options to prop up the public spending that benefits his rural base.

What to watch: Morales has pledged to respect the result, while accusing the opposition of mounting a coup. If he prevails, he could still end up with a smaller majority in the legislature and may feel pressed to tighten his grip on power in order to enact his agenda.

Michael McCarthy is a research fellow at American University’s CLALS, an adjunct professor at George Washington University's Elliott School for International Affairs, and the founder and CEO of Caracas Wire.

Bolivia's post-election turmoil reflects fall from grace for Morales

Current results put him just shy of avoiding a runoff election in December.

Evo Morales. Photo: Fotoholica Press/LightRocket via Getty Images

World

Bolivia

Expert Voices

Bolivia is poised between electoral uncertainty and political turmoil amid growing concerns that <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="election day fraud" data-vars-click-url="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/21/world/americas/Bolivia-election-vote-count.html" data-vars-content-id="67e90588-5220-4747-8d9f-911d91dd9795" data-vars-headline="Bolivia&#x27;s post-election turmoil reflects fall from grace for Morales" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/21/world/americas/Bolivia-election-vote-count.html" target="_blank">election day fraud</a> may deny opposition candidate Carlos Mesa the chance to face incumbent president Evo Morales in a December 15 runoff.The big picture: The Supreme Court&#x27;s controversial decision to let Morales run for another term set a disillusioned backdrop for Sunday&#x27;s vote, following a 2016 citizen&#x27;s referendum that had disapproved of the rule change. <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Polling" data-vars-click-url="https://www.as-coa.org/articles/poll-tracker-bolivias-2019-presidential-race" data-vars-content-id="67e90588-5220-4747-8d9f-911d91dd9795" data-vars-headline="Bolivia&#x27;s post-election turmoil reflects fall from grace for Morales" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.as-coa.org/articles/poll-tracker-bolivias-2019-presidential-race" target="_blank">Polling</a> suggests a runoff could boost Mesa&#x27;s chances, making Bolivian voters who already harbor doubts about the <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="transparency of the electoral system" data-vars-click-url="https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/bolivia-poll-derailed-as-updating-of-vote-results-suspended-1.4058374" data-vars-content-id="67e90588-5220-4747-8d9f-911d91dd9795" data-vars-headline="Bolivia&#x27;s post-election turmoil reflects fall from grace for Morales" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/bolivia-poll-derailed-as-updating-of-vote-results-suspended-1.4058374" target="_blank">transparency of the electoral system</a> even less likely to accept a first-round Morales victory.

A surprise, small-scale military uprising shook embattled leader Nicolás Maduro as turmoil spread across Venezuela on Tuesday, though he did manage to hold off a cascade of defections by senior military officials.

The big picture: Opposition leader Juan Guaidó played a strong card early in the day, flipping a high-ranking military official from the SEBIN secret police force, who then helped free Guaidó mentor Leopoldo López from house arrest and released a letter criticizing Maduro. López was a high value political prisoner, so footage of him walking free powerfully undermined Maduro's credibility as commander in chief.

Where it stands: In both 2016 and 2017, the opposition staged confrontational demonstrations to raise the costs of repression. The protests drew international attention to human rights abuses but failed to worsen regime divisions, sending the effort's leaders back to options at the negotiating table and the ballot box.

After earlier coercive diplomacy failed to produce a military uprising, the Trump administration is doubling down on its efforts to drive regime change. Increased sanctions pressure could foment greater divisions within the regime, while the refusal to take military options off the table may provide Guaidó a much-needed security umbrella.

What's next: It seems likely that Guaidó will push his Operation Freedom campaign to the brink. And Maduro will probably stick around to push back, despite Secretary Pompeo’s claim that he'd nearly fled into exile. Another clash could come as early as today's May Day demonstrations.

What to watch: The main open questions are what cards Guaidó has left in his hand, how many more rounds of coup poker can be played before one side folds, and how the U.S. and others respond.

It's still not clear that the U.S. alone can tip the scales. Working with the regional Lima Group will be key, but even more valuable would be finding a way to meet the prices that Beijing, Havana, and Moscow are asking to reevaluate their support for Maduro.

Maduro weakened by crisis, but still propped up by foreign support

The U.S. may not be able to tip the regime change scales by itself.

Pro-Guaidó demonstrators near La Carlota air force base in Caracas on April 30. Photo: Jonathan Lanza/NurPhoto via Getty Images

Venezuela

A surprise, small-scale military uprising shook embattled leader Nicolás Maduro as turmoil spread across Venezuela on Tuesday, though he did manage to hold off a cascade of defections by senior military officials.The big picture: Opposition leader Juan Guaidó played a strong card early in the day, <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="flipping a high-ranking military official" data-vars-click-url="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/the-latest-head-of-venezuela-secret-police-chastises-maduro/2019/04/30/0785676e-6ba6-11e9-bbe7-1c798fb80536_story.html?noredirect=on&amp;utm_term=.95edfe4b132c" data-vars-content-id="78499ff3-24ef-46a8-badf-8dc0f6ff59e5" data-vars-headline="Maduro weakened by crisis, but still propped up by foreign support" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/the-latest-head-of-venezuela-secret-police-chastises-maduro/2019/04/30/0785676e-6ba6-11e9-bbe7-1c798fb80536_story.html?noredirect=on&amp;utm_term=.95edfe4b132c" target="_blank">flipping a high-ranking military official</a> from the SEBIN secret police force, who then helped free Guaidó mentor Leopoldo López from house arrest and released a letter criticizing Maduro. López was a high value political prisoner, so <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="footage of him walking free" data-vars-click-url="https://www.cnn.com/videos/spanish/2019/05/01/venezuela-leopoldo-lopez-los-acontecimientos-de-su-arresto-perspectivas-buenos-aires.cnn" data-vars-content-id="78499ff3-24ef-46a8-badf-8dc0f6ff59e5" data-vars-headline="Maduro weakened by crisis, but still propped up by foreign support" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.cnn.com/videos/spanish/2019/05/01/venezuela-leopoldo-lopez-los-acontecimientos-de-su-arresto-perspectivas-buenos-aires.cnn" target="_blank">footage of him walking free</a> powerfully undermined Maduro&#x27;s credibility as commander in chief.

Newly inaugurated President Alberto Fernández seeks to pull Argentina out of its economic slump, but has yet to reveal how he will do so while balancing demands from vying political factions.

Why it matters: Fernández emerged as the latest standard bearer of the heterogenous Peronist movement after proving himself a deft political operator, but his approach to governance is just beginning to take shape. His rise marks a leftist resurgence that could redraw Latin America’s geopolitical map and create new tensions in U.S relations with the region. 

Background: Historically a left-wing, trade union–based movement, Peronism underwent a market-friendly shift during Carlos Menem’s presidency (1989–1999) before swinging back to the left under Nestor Kirchner (2003–2007) and Cristina Kirchner (2007–2015). That evolution has yielded a party of starkly contrasting views on the economy.

Since the campaign, Fernández has been dogged by persistent questions about whether he or his vice president — former President Cristina Kirchner — will call the shots.

The party’s largest congressional bloc is under Kirchner's sway. Fernández seems to be hewing toward a center-left position to avoid alienating other groups.

Where it stands: Fernández has described Argentina's skidding economy as in "virtual default," despite a record $57 billion IMF bailout loan.

Bond prices rose as markets reacted favorably to signs of a restructuring proposal that eased fears of an outright debt moratorium.

What to watch: Fernández appears to be calling for a standstill, hoping he can buy time to stimulate demand and brighten growth prospects while keeping the IMF and other investors at bay.

The new economic minister is viewed as a Fernández-Kirchner consensus pick, but his lack of government experience leaves lingering uncertainty.

Between the lines: Argentina's economic policies could have an impact on ties with the U.S., the IMF's largest shareholder.

Meanwhile, President Trump has added pressure with his threat of aluminum tariffs. And one of his top Latin America advisers publicly expressed displeasure with the presence of several left-wing leaders at the inauguration ceremony, including a high-ranking, U.S.–sanctioned official from Nicolás Maduro's government.

Fernández faces political balancing act to boost Argentina’s economy

He must unite a diverse Peronist coalition to bring the country back from "virtual default."

Alberto Fernandez standing inside Argentina's National Congress

Alberto Fernández at his Dec. 10 inauguration ceremony in Buenos Aires. Photo: Mario De Fina/NurPhoto via Getty Images

Argentina

Newly inaugurated President Alberto Fernández seeks to pull Argentina out of its <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="economic slump" data-vars-click-url="https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2019-new-economy-drivers-and-disrupters/argentina.html" data-vars-content-id="86b1b3a7-758e-4c2f-a815-207816459f0e" data-vars-headline="Fernández faces political balancing act to boost Argentina’s economy" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2019-new-economy-drivers-and-disrupters/argentina.html" target="_blank">economic slump</a>, but has yet to reveal how he will do so while balancing demands from vying political factions.Why it matters: Fernández emerged as the latest standard bearer of the heterogenous Peronist movement after proving himself a <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="deft political operator" data-vars-click-url="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-argentina-election-fernandez/alberto-fernandez-political-broker-to-argentinas-main-man-idUSKBN1YE261" data-vars-content-id="86b1b3a7-758e-4c2f-a815-207816459f0e" data-vars-headline="Fernández faces political balancing act to boost Argentina’s economy" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-argentina-election-fernandez/alberto-fernandez-political-broker-to-argentinas-main-man-idUSKBN1YE261" target="_blank">deft political operator</a>, but his approach to governance is just beginning to take shape. His rise marks a leftist resurgence that could redraw Latin America’s geopolitical map and create new tensions in U.S relations with the region.

Anti-incumbent sentiment and deepening economic anxiety propelled Alberto Fernández to a victory over Mauricio Macri in Argentina's presidential election on Sunday.

The big picture: Fernández garnered a comfortable 8-point margin, though fell short of the landslide Macri supporters feared after their 15-point deficit in the Aug. 11 primary. Fernández's victory marks the left’s return to power in Latin America’s third-largest economy, as well as the reascendance of former President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who will serve as vice president.

Where it stands: Fernández's coalition of Peronists and independent factions will have a majority in the Senate. It will be either the largest or second-largest force in the lower House of Congress, depending on the opposition's coalition.

With Argentina’s economy experiencing a significant downturn, Fernández faces a tough road ahead. He must satisfy domestic demands for renewed growth and social spending, meet the spending targets in the $57 billion IMF loan agreement, and honor debts to bondholders.

The political urgency of fiscal policies that benefit Fernández's core constituency may edge out payments to some of the country's creditors.

Between the lines: Fernández has carved out a reputation as a pragmatic negotiator. His skills will be tested as he sets out to define his authority and divide Cabinet posts in a way that satisfies Kirchner, who remains a key power broker in the Peronist coalition and commands strong support from the party's left-wing hardliners.

In light of her polarizing legacy, Kirchner played a low-profile role on the campaign trail to avoid muddling Fernández's message of change. But she now seems likely to expand her presence.

As vice president of the executive branch and president of the Senate, Kirchner will vacate her Senate seat but retain congressional immunity from any charges that emerge from the ongoing corruption investigations she faces.

What to watch: Fernández may make notable departures from Macri's foreign policy. His first foreign trip will reportedly take him to Mexico, where the Andrés Manuel López Obrador administration has taken a neutral, non-interventionist approach to the Venezuela crisis while working with the Trump administration on matters of bilateral strategic interest. 

A realignment away from an activist position on Venezuela, however, could hamper U.S.-Argentina relations as well as efforts by the regional Lima Group to apply collective pressure on Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

Fernández's victory marks resurgence of the left in Argentina

The country's economic downturn will make for a tough road ahead.

Alberto Fernandez and Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner on stage celebrating victory

Alberto Fernández and Cristina Fernández de Kirchner. Photo: Alejandro Pagni/AFP via Getty Images

Anti-incumbent sentiment and deepening economic anxiety propelled Alberto Fernández to a victory over Mauricio Macri in Argentina&#x27;s presidential election on Sunday.The big picture: Fernández garnered a comfortable 8-point margin, though fell short of the landslide Macri supporters feared after their 15-point deficit in the <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Aug. 11 primary" data-vars-click-url="https://www.as-coa.org/articles/paso-results-who-will-compete-argentinas-presidency" data-vars-content-id="8b0143fd-0865-4699-b8f0-2ab6ffea5571" data-vars-headline="Fernández&#x27;s victory marks resurgence of the left in Argentina" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.as-coa.org/articles/paso-results-who-will-compete-argentinas-presidency" target="_blank">Aug. 11 primary</a>. Fernández&#x27;s victory marks the left’s return to power in Latin America’s third-largest economy, as well as the <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="reascendance" data-vars-click-url="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-argentina-election-cristina/comeback-queen-argentinas-fiery-cristina-stages-remarkable-return-as-vp-idUSKBN1X7090" data-vars-content-id="8b0143fd-0865-4699-b8f0-2ab6ffea5571" data-vars-headline="Fernández&#x27;s victory marks resurgence of the left in Argentina" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-argentina-election-cristina/comeback-queen-argentinas-fiery-cristina-stages-remarkable-return-as-vp-idUSKBN1X7090" target="_blank">reascendance</a> of former President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who will serve as vice president.

In the absence of a foreign policy victory in Venezuela, President Trump's economic embargo on the country shows his sights resettling on the prospect of regime change.

The big picture: Despite Washington's anointment of Juan Guaidó as the country's democratically elected leader and its tightening asset freeze on government property, regime change remains a high hurdle. Behind the administration's recent move is the untested wager that the renewed threat of extraterritorial sanctions against Venezuela's trade partners China and Russia could erode their support for President Nicolás Maduro.

Context: Venezuela has generally not been a bargaining chip in broader geopolitical games, apart from U.S. lines drawn around military meddling in the region by non-hemispheric powers, but more great power politics are now in play.

While it may be rational for China and Russia to back down and realize the economic benefits of the transition in Venezuela sought by the U.S., national pride is also at stake.

If Washington cannot convince China and Russia through arguments around economic self-interest, gaining traction with them becomes much harder.

Between the lines: Trump faces a steep challenge, but it's not all downside for him.

Even if greater economic pressure fails to drive out Maduro, going all-in could have the convenient side benefit of strengthening his 2020 reelection chances in Florida, where, along with Cuban-Americans, Venezuelan-Americans are key swing voters.

Supposing Maduro remains in power, Temporary Protected Status or its equivalent for U.S.–based Venezuelan migrants would be a valuable consolation prize to deliver in an election year.

What to watch: Maduro, always spoiling for a fight with the White House, will likely use the embargo to further scapegoat the U.S. for Venezuela's economic collapse.

Maduro's next counter-moves could involve insisting his delegation is still committed to Norway-sponsored mediation with Guaidó while laying the groundwork for condemnation of harsh American sanctions at the UN.

Trump could face a choice to escalate his embargo to a full blockade if the new economic pressure does not tilt support toward Guaidó.

Reluctant to enter the fray, China and Russia may still be drawn in should the U.S. turn to military might to enforce its embargo — and it's unclear what lengths they would go to in defense of Maduro.

U.S. embargo on Venezuela raises stakes for Russia and China

Neither is eager to enter the fray, but U.S. military action could change that.

Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro speaking in Caracas. Photo: Matias Delacroix/Getty Images)

In the absence of a foreign policy victory in Venezuela, President Trump&#x27;s <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="economic embargo" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/trump-expands-venezuela-sanctions-to-embargo-592e723c-01ce-4491-9182-c12f65cdb8ad.html" data-vars-content-id="9e4c8fad-e30e-4512-8e27-21071cb087c0" data-vars-headline="U.S. embargo on Venezuela raises stakes for Russia and China" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/trump-expands-venezuela-sanctions-to-embargo-592e723c-01ce-4491-9182-c12f65cdb8ad.html" target="_self">economic embargo</a> on the country shows his sights resettling on the prospect of regime change.The big picture: Despite Washington&#x27;s anointment of Juan Guaidó as the country&#x27;s democratically elected leader and its tightening asset freeze on government property, regime change remains a high hurdle. Behind the administration&#x27;s recent move is the untested wager that the renewed threat of extraterritorial sanctions against Venezuela&#x27;s trade partners China and Russia could erode their support for President Nicolás Maduro.

China is becoming the most formidable rival America has faced, and the risk of confrontation with Russia, North Korea or Iran still looms. Authoritarians are rising, the chaotic Afghanistan exit revealed the limits of U.S. power, and the pandemic, climate change and other critical challenges continue to pose grave threats.

Michael McCarthy

Stories

Fernández faces political balancing act to boost Argentina’s economy

Fernández's victory marks resurgence of the left in Argentina

Bolivia's post-election turmoil reflects fall from grace for Morales

U.S. embargo on Venezuela raises stakes for Russia and China

Maduro weakened by crisis, but still propped up by foreign support