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High-level delegations from over 40 countries will meet in Warsaw, Poland, this week to discuss the future of the Middle East in the wake of the U.S. withdrawal from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA). For Washington, represented by Vice President Pence and Secretary Pompeo, the meeting will be a major test for their vision of a Middle East that excludes diplomatic relations with Iran.

Mike Pompeo addresses a press conference in Budapest on February 11, 2019. 

Secretary of State Pompeo. Photo: Attila Kisbenedek/AFP via Getty Images

Background: President Trump's decision to withdraw from the JCPOA last year has created one of the thorniest points of transatlantic division. The EU continues to support the agreement, and many Western Europeans view the conference as an uncomfortable dilemma between sticking to the EU's commitment and taking part in a summit that explicitly excludes Iran.

Complicating matters, France, Germany, and the U.K. have a new point of leverage ahead of the talks: the launch of a mechanism that would circumvent U.S. sanctions and allow for trade with Iran.

For Poland, this will be a chance to play a hosting role on a key international issue, and to further strengthen a growing alliance with the U.S. While Warsaw has so far remained within the EU consensus on the JCPOA, it has also been receptive to U.S. concerns over Iran's ballistic missile program and support for terrorist organizations.  

Reality check: For the summit to be a conducive forum for the U.S., Arab states, Israel and the EU to begin to work out their differences, it will require careful diplomacy, wide consultations with U.S. allies, and the perception that Washington can act as an honest broker. So far, quite a few key players remain unconvinced, with several of the foreign ministers of big EU countries still waiting until the last moment to decide on their participation.

What to watch: The big challenges to Middle Eastern stability — Syria, Iran, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict — require, at the very least, agreement between the U.S. and its allies in both the Middle East and Europe. If the Warsaw conference is seen as a predominantly anti-Iranian summit, it will only exacerbate transatlantic divisions, leaving the U.S. with fewer allies in the Middle East, and Poland with a political price to pay within the EU.

Michal Baranowski is the director of the German Marshall Fund’s Warsaw office.

For Mideast summit, U.S. withdrawal from the Iran deal still a flashpoint

It's become one of the thorniest points of transatlantic division.

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High-level delegations from over 40 countries will meet in Warsaw, Poland, this week to discuss the future of the Middle East in the wake of the U.S. withdrawal from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA). For Washington, represented by Vice President Pence and Secretary Pompeo, the meeting will be a major test for their vision of a Middle East that excludes diplomatic relations with Iran.

China is becoming the most formidable rival America has faced, and the risk of confrontation with Russia, North Korea or Iran still looms. Authoritarians are rising, the chaotic Afghanistan exit revealed the limits of U.S. power, and the pandemic, climate change and other critical challenges continue to pose grave threats.

Poland's Law and Justice party (PiS) prevailed this weekend in parliamentary elections marked by a record turnout of 61%, cementing the euroskeptic party's hold on power domestically and potentially impacting democratic trends across the EU.

The big picture: The PiS has presided over fast economic growth (above 5% in 2018), the delivery of generous social programs, and a more conservative course on many issues, such as LGBT rights, that are deeply polarizing. But after an often controversial 4-year term, the party has now received a sign of popular approval.

By the numbers: With 44% of the vote, PiS will hold a slim majority in the lower house of Parliament, though it fell one seat shy of a Senate majority.

The liberal opposition block, led by the pro-European Civic Platform, will remain as the biggest opposition party with 27% of the vote, but it was heavily criticized due to a lackluster campaign.

The Left is another winner of these elections, coming back to the Parliament with 12% of the vote after four years in the political wilderness.

For the first time since 1989, a far-right xenophobic party made it to the Polish parliament. Confederation gained almost 7% of the vote.  

Context: The parliamentary elections have been described as the most important since the country regained independence in 1989.

They unfolded against an ongoing dispute between Warsaw and the EU over the rule of law. Late last week, the European Commission announced that it was taking Poland to the EU’s highest court for violating judicial independence.

Poland's domestic shifts could have ramifications for the broader European project. Its European policy will impact those of its neighbors and the likelihood of reaching an EU-wide agreement on the reform of the block. 

What to watch: The PiS will be empowered to continue its promised reforms, but the opposition control of the Senate will make for a bumpy legislative process.

The course Poland takes will depend most on how Jaroslaw Kaczynski interprets his party's mandate.

The stakes for next year’s presidential elections have been dramatically raised, as incumbent President Andrzej Duda will now face a united opposition.

Polish parliamentary elections raise stakes for presidential vote

Poland's Law and Justice party held a slim majority in the lower house of Parliament.

Jaroslaw Kaczynski, leader of the Law and Justice political party (PiS), speaks to his supporters. 

Jaroslaw Kaczynski, leader of the Law and Justice political party. Photo: Carsten Koall/Getty Images.

Poland

Poland&#x27;s Law and Justice party (PiS) <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="prevailed" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/poland-elections-law-and-justice-party-1d658c33-acb2-480f-b56e-57d2fe3c2de9.html" data-vars-content-id="807118c2-bd2c-4bbf-9b3e-1235816c8b47" data-vars-headline="Polish parliamentary elections raise stakes for presidential vote" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/poland-elections-law-and-justice-party-1d658c33-acb2-480f-b56e-57d2fe3c2de9.html" target="_self">prevailed</a> this weekend in parliamentary elections marked by a record turnout of 61%, cementing the euroskeptic party&#x27;s hold on power domestically and potentially impacting democratic trends across the EU.The big picture: The PiS has presided over fast economic growth (above 5% in 2018), the delivery of generous social programs, and a more conservative course on many issues, such as LGBT rights, that are deeply polarizing. But after an often controversial 4-year term, the party has now received a sign of popular approval.

Tuesday marks the first official White House visit by Polish president Andrzej Duda. Up for discussion will be U.S. military bases and Polish energy security.

The big picture: Poland remains one of the last all-weather allies for the Trump administration in an increasingly skeptical Europe. While many European allies have soured on the U.S. over increasingly fraught security and trade relations, Poland is doubling down on its relationship with the U.S. — and with Trump himself. 

Permanent boots on the ground: Duda will try to convince Trump to establish a permanent U.S. military base on Polish soil — a move that would reinforce U.S. support for NATO’s Eastern flank and send a message of deterrence to Russia. Congress has already tasked the Pentagon with studying the issue after Warsaw floated the idea earlier this year, but Duda will use his time in D.C. to make his case at the highest level. The U.S. already has thousands of troops in Poland on a rotational basis.

Energy security: Poland strives to become an energy hub in the region and has a big appetite for American liquefied natural gas — an idea Trump has already endorsed. The two leaders also share a strong opposition to the controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline from Russia. Duda arrives in D.C. fresh from a meeting of the Three Seas Initiative in Bucharest, where Central European leaders have been working toward closer cooperation on energy security.

Not on the agenda: Tensions are growing between Warsaw and Brussels over what the EU has deemed serious breaches of the rule of law by Duda’s rightwing Law and Justice party. Despite the European Parliament’s triggering of Article 7 against Warsaw last year, Trump has largely been hands-off on the issue. Given that the Polish government is one of the most pro-U.S. allies within the EU, this is unlikely to change now.

The bottom line: Washington has invested heavily in its relationship with Warsaw while overlooking worrying internal developments. This week, security and economic ties will top the agenda, and the fundamental values on which the transatlantic Alliance also rests will go unattended.

Polish President Andrzej Duda visits U.S. to fortify ties with Trump

Poland is one of Trump's last all-weather allies in Europe.

President Duda announces recipients of the Order of the White Eagle at at the Presidential Palace in Warsaw, Poland on September 12, 2018.

Polish President Duda at the Presidential Palace in Warsaw, Poland, on September 12, 2018. Photo: Jaap Arriens/NurPhoto via Getty Images

Andrzej Duda

Tuesday marks the first official White House visit by Polish president Andrzej Duda. Up for discussion will be U.S. military bases and Polish energy security.The big picture: Poland remains one of the last all-weather allies for the Trump administration in an increasingly skeptical Europe. While many European allies have soured on the U.S. over increasingly fraught security and trade relations, Poland is doubling down on its relationship with the U.S. — and with Trump himself.

Ominous forecasts about the impact of climate change serve as the backdrop for the world — led by U.S. lawmakers and companies — to debate big action on the problem, which could upend energy systems and our way of life.

Michal Baranowski

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Polish parliamentary elections raise stakes for presidential vote

For Mideast summit, U.S. withdrawal from the Iran deal still a flashpoint

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