National

More large U.S. cities are seeing their outer reaches turn into transit deserts, where demand for transportation vastly exceeds supply.

The big picture: Economic inequality and urban sprawl have contributed to the problem, which generates barriers to health care access, employment and even everyday shopping. Connecting public transit systems with automated vehicles — whether in ride-sharing or shuttle services — could offer one solution.

Context: Researchers with the Urban Information Lab at the University of Texas studied 52 U.S. cities and found that between 1.5% and 13.5% of each city’s population had unmet transit needs.

In those cities alone, as many as 4.5 million people live in areas outside easy walking distance of regularly serviced public transit locations and where private car ownership is low due to age, income or disability.

How it works: AV solutions for transit deserts could take two main forms:

Ride-sharing could provide financially accessible and logistically feasible transportation with relatively light investment. It has potential as both a door-to-door service or for last-mile connections to public transit, especially during off-peak hours.

Autonomous buses operating on fixed route may be useful, but would not necessarily provide benefits beyond those of human-driven buses. On-demand autonomous shuttles, on the other hand, could complete door-to-door routes that combine the efficiency of a ride-sharing AV with the low cost of a bus service.

What's needed: To avoid declines in the funding of public transit that could make deserts worse, AV transit would have to be designed as a complement rather than a competitor.

Financial and operational incentives could help AV services gain momentum. For example, public transit agencies could handle booking and subsidize the cost of trips.

Laura Fraade-Blanar is an associate policy researcher at the RAND Corporation.

AVs could improve transportation access in "transit deserts"

Millions of people in the U.S. live outside the reach of public transit.

Illustration of a road with a middle section highlight in red, with a red car speeding on it

Transportation

Expert Voices

More large U.S. cities are seeing their outer reaches turn into <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="transit deserts" data-vars-click-url="https://scholarcommons.usf.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?referer=https://www.google.com/&amp;httpsredir=1&amp;article=1054&amp;context=jpt" data-vars-content-id="0b8d6102-ca19-40b0-a9c5-035923dcd579" data-vars-headline="AVs could improve transportation access in &quot;transit deserts&quot;" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://scholarcommons.usf.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?referer=https://www.google.com/&amp;httpsredir=1&amp;article=1054&amp;context=jpt" target="_blank">transit deserts</a>, where demand for transportation vastly exceeds supply.The big picture: <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Economic inequality and urban sprawl" data-vars-click-url="https://www.usnews.com/news/healthiest-communities/articles/2018-04-24/transit-deserts-a-growing-problem-in-the-us" data-vars-content-id="0b8d6102-ca19-40b0-a9c5-035923dcd579" data-vars-headline="AVs could improve transportation access in &quot;transit deserts&quot;" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.usnews.com/news/healthiest-communities/articles/2018-04-24/transit-deserts-a-growing-problem-in-the-us" target="_blank">Economic inequality and urban sprawl</a> have contributed to the problem, which generates barriers to health care access, employment and even everyday shopping. Connecting public transit systems with automated vehicles — whether in ride-sharing or shuttle services — could offer one solution.

From the Valley to D.C., Big Tech players like Facebook, Google and Amazon are under more scrutiny than ever as new technology develops and privacy and antitrust concerns grow in lockstep with companies’ ambitions.

Technology

No matter how much developers test AVs, the world will still present unforeseen circumstances for vehicles to navigate. Researchers and policymakers want to mitigate these risks by making roadways more accommodating of mistakes.

The big picture: Road safety policy can help offset these challenges and better plan for AV deployment, particularly the Safe System approach that originated as part of Sweden's 1997 Vision Zero initiative. Countries that have implemented similar policies have seen declines in traffic fatalities, and others could follow their models.

Background: Real-world road accidents from 2018 illustrate the surprising variety of "unknown unknowns" vehicles encounter: a 20-fatality limo crash in New York caused by poor road design and vehicle maintenance; a speeding car launched off a raised median into a second-story office in California; and an Oregon roadway made slippery by a truck spill of 7,500 pounds of slime eels.

Details: The Safe System approach focuses on three intersecting tenets: Road safety is a shared responsibility; transportation initiatives are based on both experience and anticipated problems; and AV systems, like human drivers, are fallible.

How it works: Roadways and vehicle design can be modified to be more forgiving of mistakes and AV system shortcomings.

Enhanced lane divisions to prevent head-on collisions

Rumble strips to keep drivers in their lanes

Lower speed limits and alerts when those limits are exceeded

Structures to minimize lethality of crashes inside the vehicle (strengthened roof and chassis) and outside (safer designs for guardrails)

The bottom line: A roadway designed to accommodate human error, whether the human is behind a steering wheel or behind a computer, could better protect motorists, and the AVs that may soon populate it.

Laura Fraade-Blanar is an adjunct researcher at the nonprofit, nonpartisan RAND Corporation.

How to make roads safer for AVs

An approach pioneered in Sweden offers a valuable model.

Illustration of an unfastened seat belt, with the belt replaced with a road

Safety

No matter how much developers test AVs, the world will still present unforeseen circumstances for vehicles to navigate. Researchers and policymakers want to mitigate these risks by making roadways more accommodating of mistakes.The big picture: Road safety policy can help offset these challenges and better plan for AV deployment, particularly the <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Safe System" data-vars-click-url="https://protect2.fireeye.com/url?k=616a42bd-3d73142e-616a6cea-0cc47a335a36-42e5f448250660b6&amp;u=https://fevr.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/Towards-Zero-OECD-PDF-57-MB.pdf" data-vars-content-id="1e3408e6-99e4-4160-8e41-45231f6fd6e4" data-vars-headline="How to make roads safer for AVs" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://protect2.fireeye.com/url?k=616a42bd-3d73142e-616a6cea-0cc47a335a36-42e5f448250660b6&amp;u=https://fevr.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/Towards-Zero-OECD-PDF-57-MB.pdf" target="_blank">Safe System</a> approach that <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="originated" data-vars-click-url="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17457300.2011.635213" data-vars-content-id="1e3408e6-99e4-4160-8e41-45231f6fd6e4" data-vars-headline="How to make roads safer for AVs" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17457300.2011.635213" target="_blank">originated</a> as part of Sweden&#x27;s 1997 <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Vision Zero" data-vars-click-url="https://protect2.fireeye.com/url?k=c595155e-998c43cd-c5953b09-0cc47a335a36-591503280c18ce32&amp;u=http://www.towardszerofoundation.org/twenty-years-swedens-vision-zero-continues-impress/" data-vars-content-id="1e3408e6-99e4-4160-8e41-45231f6fd6e4" data-vars-headline="How to make roads safer for AVs" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://protect2.fireeye.com/url?k=c595155e-998c43cd-c5953b09-0cc47a335a36-591503280c18ce32&amp;u=http://www.towardszerofoundation.org/twenty-years-swedens-vision-zero-continues-impress/" target="_blank">Vision Zero</a> initiative. <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Countries" data-vars-click-url="https://protect2.fireeye.com/url?k=eac262cc-b6db345f-eac24c9b-0cc47a335a36-885318a07831006b&amp;u=http://visionzero.global/over-2000-vision-zero-members" data-vars-content-id="1e3408e6-99e4-4160-8e41-45231f6fd6e4" data-vars-headline="How to make roads safer for AVs" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://protect2.fireeye.com/url?k=eac262cc-b6db345f-eac24c9b-0cc47a335a36-885318a07831006b&amp;u=http://visionzero.global/over-2000-vision-zero-members" target="_blank">Countries</a> that have implemented similar policies have seen <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="declines in traffic fatalities" data-vars-click-url="https://www.wri.org/publication/sustainable-and-safe-vision-and-guidance-zero-road-deaths" data-vars-content-id="1e3408e6-99e4-4160-8e41-45231f6fd6e4" data-vars-headline="How to make roads safer for AVs" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.wri.org/publication/sustainable-and-safe-vision-and-guidance-zero-road-deaths" target="_blank">declines in traffic fatalities</a>, and others could follow their models.

Older adults continue driving until the last 6 to 10 years of their lives, though their ability to safely operate a vehicle may diminish because of illness, limited mobility or side effects of medication. 

The big picture: The U.S. has 47 million adults 65 and over — a number that is only expected to grow — and 80% of them hold a driver’s license and live in areas that require a car to get around. Autonomous vehicles have the potential to remake older drivers' golden years by allowing them to maintain independence while still giving up their car keys.

Like many Americans, older drivers will need to overcome their anxieties about AVs to give them a chance. They will also face unique challenges, like learning to navigate ride-hailing apps and added difficulties should they need to assume some level of manual control. The AV may need to allow a longer window of time for older riders with limited mobility to enter or exit the vehicle, or to include control options for a caregiver accompanying riders with physical or cognitive impairments.

AVs also hold financial promise for the over-65 crowd, since transportation is retirees' second biggest expense. Because AV ride-sharing may be cheaper than owning a vehicle or being driven by someone else, it could save older adults money while still affording them autonomy. AV delivery services could further reduce the number of trips they need to make themselves, perhaps also at lower cost.

The bottom line: Among older adults, giving up driving has been linked to depression, isolation, and early entry into nursing home facilities. It also burdens caregivers. AVs could therefore have much to offer that would improve their well-being.

Laura Fraade-Blanar is a postdoctoral fellow at the National Institutes of Health and an adjunct researcher at the RAND Corporation.

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How AVs could provide independence for older drivers

They could be cheaper, more convenient and better for overall well-being.

Autonomous vehicles

Future

Older adults continue driving until the <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="last 6 to 10 years" data-vars-click-url="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1447231/" data-vars-content-id="1e47f226-8f9f-4542-a3d7-f8493cc114b4" data-vars-headline="How AVs could provide independence for older drivers" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1447231/" target="_blank">last 6 to 10 years</a> of their lives, though their ability to safely operate a vehicle <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="may diminish" data-vars-click-url="https://trid.trb.org/view/1401769" data-vars-content-id="1e47f226-8f9f-4542-a3d7-f8493cc114b4" data-vars-headline="How AVs could provide independence for older drivers" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://trid.trb.org/view/1401769" target="_blank">may diminish</a> because of illness, limited mobility or side effects of medication. The big picture: The U.S. has <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="47 million adults 65 and over " data-vars-click-url="https://www.census.gov/newsroom/facts-for-features/2017/cb17-ff08.html" data-vars-content-id="1e47f226-8f9f-4542-a3d7-f8493cc114b4" data-vars-headline="How AVs could provide independence for older drivers" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.census.gov/newsroom/facts-for-features/2017/cb17-ff08.html" target="_blank">47 million adults 65 and over </a>— a number that is only expected to grow — and 80% of them hold a driver’s license and live in areas that require a car to get around. Autonomous vehicles have the potential to remake older drivers&#x27; golden years by allowing them to maintain independence while still giving up their car keys.

Laura Fraade-Blanar

Stories

AVs could improve transportation access in "transit deserts"

How to make roads safer for AVs

How AVs could provide independence for older drivers