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The consequences of President Trump’s meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the G20 summit in Argentina this weekend will extend far beyond trade. Whatever the president says for a domestic political audience or to calm markets will be watched closely, from Europe to Asia.

Why it matters: Any successful U.S. strategy to establish guardrails for China’s rise will rely heavily on U.S. allies, who are making their own calculations about American staying power and resolve. Many regional partners were disturbed by the optics of Trump's first meeting with Xi at Mar-a-Lago in April 2017 — after which Trump claimed to have "a terrific relationship with Xi" — and his visit to China that November, when he tweeted about his "unforgettable" time.

The Trump administration has called Beijing a "strategic competitor" and "a revisionist power," a marked change from the engagement of its predecessors. Vice President Pence has also taken on a prominent role confronting China’s political and economic influence and human-rights abuses.

Yes, but: Trump himself has used his bully pulpit primarily to attack China’s unfair economic practices. He spoke of the need to "decouple" the U.S. and Chinese economies during the 2016 primary, and in office has imposed tariffs of hundreds of billions of dollars on Chinese imports, citing intellectual property theft and his desire for "a fair deal."

Trump may ease his rhetoric in an effort to preserve economic gains from a strong stock market and job creation during his tenure. That would be shortsighted, though, as China seems unwilling to make concessions to address its intellectual property theft and other unfair economic practices, while doing little to assist with North Korea's stalled denuclearization process.

The greater danger, however, is that Trump's rhetoric around the Xi meeting could undermine his administration's tough-sounding strategies and policies, just as his engagements with Vladimir Putin have conflicted with his administration's Russia policy. Key partners such as Japan and India have softened their tone toward Beijing, while European states have struggled to reconcile their mounting frustrations with China with their uncertainty about Trump’s strategy.

The bottom line: Trump will face a choice in Buenos Aires: Side with the rest of his administration and endorse the growing competition with China; or, as with Russia, remain a discordant note in the international chorus in the interest of short-term political goals.

Jamie Fly is senior fellow and director of the Asia Program at the German Marshall Fund of the United States.

Trump's G20 meeting with Xi a crossroads for U.S.–China policy

U.S. allies are making calculations about American staying power and resolve.

China's President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump (L-R front) shake hands during a meeting outside the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. 

President Xi Jinping and President Trump shake hands during a meeting outside the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, on November 9, 2017. Photo: Artyom Ivanov/TASS via Getty Images

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The consequences of President Trump’s meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the G20 summit in Argentina this weekend will extend far beyond trade. Whatever the president says for a domestic political audience or to calm markets will be watched closely, from Europe to Asia.Why it matters: Any successful U.S. strategy to establish guardrails for China’s rise will rely heavily on U.S. allies, who are making their own calculations about American staying power and resolve. Many regional partners were disturbed by the optics of Trump&#x27;s first meeting with Xi at Mar-a-Lago in April 2017 — after which Trump claimed to have &quot;a terrific relationship with Xi&quot; — and his visit to China that November, when he <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="tweeted" data-vars-click-url="https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/928267692645036032?lang=en" data-vars-content-id="0a1f2715-8748-43b6-83da-570dbd2286ce" data-vars-headline="Trump&#x27;s G20 meeting with Xi a crossroads for U.S.–China policy" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/928267692645036032?lang=en" target="_blank">tweeted</a> about his &quot;unforgettable&quot; time.

After a record economic expansion, the coronavirus pandemic sent the U.S. economy into a recession as unemployment soared to staggering heights. The country now faces urgent questions about how much stimulus is needed for reeling consumers and businesses, and what a recovery might look like.

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Earlier this week, the Trump administration outlined its initiative to counter China's growing economic influence in the Indo-Pacific, announcing a plan to provide $113.5 million in seed funding and push the U.S. private sector to invest in the region. Already, it's clear that the plan is insufficient to match the scale of Chinese investment in the region.

The big picture: Another key challenge for the Trump administration will be how to reconcile its Indo-Pacific strategy with its approach to foreign adversaries. India is central to this challenge, with its close historical ties to both Russia and Iran. As the U.S. pursues punitive measures against those countries, it also risks undermining significant progress in the U.S.–India relationship made over the last 15 years.

The background: Under Prime Minister Modi, India has expanded its leadership in the Indo-Pacific and strengthened its trade, military and diplomatic relationships with the U.S. Yet even as successive governments have grown closer to Washington, significant friction remains when it comes to Iran and Russia.

The U.S. has tried to for years to secure Indian support in stopping Iran's nuclear program, but Iran provides India with strategic access to Afghanistan and alternative trade and transportation routes necessitated by its fraught relationship with Pakistan. These tensions eased under President Obama’s nuclear deal, which allowed India to increase its oil trade with Iran, but Trump's more aggressive approach has kicked off another debate in India about the perils of getting too close to an erratic U.S.

India also enjoys a defense relationship with Russia that dates back to the Cold War, so Russian sanctions imposed last year through the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) could be similarly alienating, threatening the U.S.–India defense relationship if the Trump administration were to fully implement them.

What to watch: Congress is moving through the National  Defense Authorization Act to grant the Trump administration the ability to factor such strategic considerations into its implementation of CAATSA. If the administration is serious about its Indo-Pacific strategy, it will need to take care not to undermine New Delhi even as it attempts to isolate the Iranian and Russian economies.

Jamie Fly is senior fellow and director of the Asia Program at the German Marshall Fund of the U.S.

Squaring Trump's Indo-Pacific plan with India's ties to Iran and Russia

Trump's approach to Iran has made India warier of getting too close to the U.S.

Secretary of State Pompeo speaks during the Indo-Pacific Business Forum at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce on July 30, 2018, in Washington, DC.

Secretary of State Pompeo speaks during the Indo-Pacific Business Forum at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce on July 30, 2018, in Washington, DC. Photo: Alex Wong via Getty Images

India

Earlier this week, the Trump administration outlined its initiative to counter China&#x27;s growing economic influence in the Indo-Pacific, announcing a plan to provide $113.5 million in seed funding and push the U.S. private sector to invest in the region. Already, it&#x27;s clear that the plan is insufficient to match the scale of <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Chinese investment in the region" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/us-economic-strategy-for-indo-pacific-doesnt-stack-up-to-chinas-2f5233b6-8163-4e44-859e-8ee2d3adc703.html" data-vars-content-id="d1f41634-f4b8-4b77-9777-59aff1acdc2a" data-vars-headline="Squaring Trump&#x27;s Indo-Pacific plan with India&#x27;s ties to Iran and Russia" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/us-economic-strategy-for-indo-pacific-doesnt-stack-up-to-chinas-2f5233b6-8163-4e44-859e-8ee2d3adc703.html" target="_self">Chinese investment in the region</a>.The big picture: Another key challenge for the Trump administration will be how to reconcile its Indo-Pacific strategy with its approach to foreign adversaries. India is central to this challenge, with its close historical ties to both Russia and Iran. As the U.S. pursues punitive measures against those countries, it also risks undermining significant progress in the U.S.–India relationship made over the last 15 years.

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Jamie Fly

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Trump's G20 meeting with Xi a crossroads for U.S.–China policy

Squaring Trump's Indo-Pacific plan with India's ties to Iran and Russia