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BEIRUT — Lebanon's spiraling economy is threatening the stability of the military and security services, as current and retired security personnel see the value of their salaries and pensions plummet.

Why it matters: Without adequate salaries, soldiers have taken second jobs or, in some cases, deserted their ranks, threatening Lebanon’s security. The army serves as a stabilizing force to police the country’s sectarian feuds, and it's long been a critical partner for the U.S. as it's able to function as a counterweight to the Iran-backed armed group Hezbollah. 

Driving the news: Last week, protesters, including hundreds of army retirees angered over the rapid depreciation of their pensions, tried to remove barbed wire fencing outside the prime minister’s headquarters and threatened to retaliate if tear gas was used. Tear gas was fired to disperse angry crowds in a similar protest a week earlier.

Army personnel have not protested on this scale before in Lebanon, according to Sami Nader, the director of the Beirut-based Levant Institute for Strategic Affairs. The salaries and pensions of the country’s security personnel have drastically decreased in value, unable to keep pace with the rampant inflation of the Lebanese pound.

“The salaries in the public sector — including the military and armed forces — are dwindling by the day,” Nader said.

An active Lebanese soldier, who spoke on condition of anonymity to Axios, said his salary has tanked from what was worth $1,300 three years ago to now just $114. He has resorted to driving for various ride-sharing apps to compensate for his income loss, he said, but still barely has enough to cover his daily expenses.

"I am under terrible psychological pressure and terrible economic pressure," he said.

State of play: The International Monetary Fund has offered a $3 billion bailout package to Lebanon, conditional on a host of structural and financial reforms. But with the country in a double executive vacuum since November — without a president or a fully empowered Cabinet — no progress has been made on the reforms that could help revive the deteriorated economy.

Without a political solution on the horizon, the pound will likely continue to spiral, and along with it the salaries of the country’s security personnel and public sector workers.

Lebanon crisis threatens stability of security forces

Current and retired security personnel see the value of their salaries and pensions plummet.

Lebanese army retirees protest living conditions and economic crisis on March 30. Photo: Marwan Naamani/picture alliance via Getty Images

Lebanon

BEIRUT — Lebanon&#x27;s <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="spiraling economy" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/03/22/lebanon-economic-crisis-lira-pound-sinks" data-vars-content-id="678e41bd-0bce-49b2-bbad-6666efc9f7d5" data-vars-headline="Lebanon crisis threatens stability of security forces" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/03/22/lebanon-economic-crisis-lira-pound-sinks" target="_self">spiraling economy</a> is threatening the stability of the military and security services, as current and retired security personnel see the value of their salaries and pensions <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="plummet" data-vars-click-url="https://today.lorientlejour.com/article/1333172/army-retirees-protest-by-the-hundreds-in-downtown-beirut-demanding-higher-pensions.html" data-vars-content-id="678e41bd-0bce-49b2-bbad-6666efc9f7d5" data-vars-headline="Lebanon crisis threatens stability of security forces" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://today.lorientlejour.com/article/1333172/army-retirees-protest-by-the-hundreds-in-downtown-beirut-demanding-higher-pensions.html" target="_blank">plummet</a>.Why it matters: Without adequate salaries, soldiers have taken second jobs or, in some cases, <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="deserted" data-vars-click-url="https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2023/02/lebanons-army-suffers-currency-collapse-desertions-mount" data-vars-content-id="678e41bd-0bce-49b2-bbad-6666efc9f7d5" data-vars-headline="Lebanon crisis threatens stability of security forces" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2023/02/lebanons-army-suffers-currency-collapse-desertions-mount" target="_blank">deserted</a> their ranks, threatening Lebanon’s security. The army serves as a stabilizing force to police the country’s sectarian feuds, and it&#x27;s long been a critical partner for the U.S. as it&#x27;s able to function as a counterweight to the Iran-backed armed group Hezbollah.

China is becoming the most formidable rival America has faced, and the risk of confrontation with Russia, North Korea or Iran still looms. Authoritarians are rising, the chaotic Afghanistan exit revealed the limits of U.S. power, and the pandemic, climate change and other critical challenges continue to pose grave threats.

World

BEIRUT — Last week’s intense exchange of rocket fire over Lebanon’s southern border with Israel left Lebanon in fear of being dragged into another war, which would be catastrophic as the country faces an unprecedented economic crisis.

The big picture: The rocket attack — the worst escalation since the 2006 war — also demonstrated the increasing coordination between Lebanon’s Iran-backed Hezbollah and Palestinian armed group Hamas, experts say. 

Driving the news: Israel blames Hamas for the attacks, but Hezbollah likely authorized the group to launch the rockets, Hilal Khashan, a professor of political science at the American University of Beirut, told Axios.

Hamas has not formally claimed to have launched the rockets, but the group has praised them. For its part, Hezbollah denied being involved. In response to Israel’s attacks, Hezbollah Deputy Secretary-General Naim Qassem last week said that “the entire axis of resistance remains vigilant."

Hamas has in recent years increasingly sought to deepen its connections with the Iran-backed Hezbollah, which as one of Lebanon's most powerful political parties has ample ability to maneuver the country’s domestic and international affairs.

Now isolated from most of the Arab world, Hamas has “reluctantly” turned to Iran for support, said Khashan.

Between the lines: Despite the ideological divide between Sunni-inspired Hamas and Shiite-inspired Hezbollah, the two militias are united under their shared animosity toward Israel.

The warming of Hezbollah-Hamas ties breaks away from the decadelong period of estrangement due to the groups’ backing of opposing sides in the Syrian war.

State of play: Hezbollah’s likely involvement in the rocket fire particularly “enraged” Lebanon’s Christians, amplifying their mistrust toward the Shiite political party and reinforcing their determination to prevent the election of a pro-Hezbollah president, Khashan said.

But Hezbollah’s allies have also condemned the recent violence in the south. The Hezbollah-allied Shiite political party, Amal, said they were not satisfied with the “playing of the security and stability of the south” and did not support the launching of rockets.

Meanwhile, Lebanon has filed a complaint to the UN in response to Israel’s retaliatory attacks on Hamas targets, which it stated were a “flagrant violation” of the country’s sovereignty.

Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on Sunday concluded his visit to Lebanon, where he met with Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and discussed “the readiness of the axis of resistance” against Israel.

The bottom line: Israel and Hezbollah want to avoid igniting a war that could explode into a regional confrontation.

Israel deliberately avoided a wider conflict with Hezbollah by focusing its retaliation on Hamas targets.

Hezbollah’s authorization for Hamas to launch the rockets was a mere “show of solidarity” with the Palestinian cause, Khashan said, the Lebanese militia also aiming to avoid an all-out conflict.

“Hezbollah doesn’t want to confront Israel because they know the consequences,” Khashan warned.

Rockets fired from Lebanon highlight growing Hamas-Hezbollah ties, experts say

Hamas has in recent years increasingly sought to deepen its connections with the Iran-backed Hezbollah.

Israeli soldiers deploy in an open area near the border with Lebanon. Photo: Jalaa Marey/AFP via Getty Images

Hezbollah

Iran

Israel

BEIRUT — Last week’s intense exchange of rocket fire over Lebanon’s southern border with Israel left Lebanon in fear of being dragged into another war, which would be catastrophic as the country faces an <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="unprecedented " data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/03/22/lebanon-economic-crisis-lira-pound-sinks" data-vars-content-id="8150bd5f-f213-4d19-ba40-5a8f560bcca1" data-vars-headline="Rockets fired from Lebanon highlight growing Hamas-Hezbollah ties, experts say" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/03/22/lebanon-economic-crisis-lira-pound-sinks" target="_self">unprecedented </a>economic crisis.The big picture: The rocket attack — the worst escalation since the 2006 war — also demonstrated the increasing coordination between Lebanon’s Iran-backed Hezbollah and Palestinian armed group Hamas, experts say.

BEIRUT — The U.S. this week urged crisis-hit Lebanon to move “expeditiously” to elect an "appropriate" president six months after the last head of state departed the presidential palace.

Why it matters: Divisions between the different regional and world powers have stalled the country's presidential election, compounding the country's growing economic crisis that has plunged millions into poverty.

Lebanon’s politics are split between an Iran-Syria alliance that supports Hezbollah versus a Saudi-backed bloc that is allied with the U.S. and much of the West.

Catch up quick: Lebanon’s divided parliament has failed multiple times to elect a president since former President Michel Aoun left the post in October.

Hezbollah — an Iran-backed militia group and Lebanon’s most powerful political actor — has nominated Marada Movement leader Sleiman Frangieh as its preferred presidential candidate.

But Frangieh, who is also a close friend of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, does not have the necessary backing of the largest Christian blocs in Lebanon’s parliament, nor the support of the international community.

The top presidential candidates backed by parties opposed to Hezbollah include Lebanon’s army commander Gen. Joseph Aoun and Zgharta MP Michel Mouwad.

The big picture: The election of a president in Lebanon “is always the work of foreign powers," Hilal Khashan, a professor of political science at the American University of Beirut, told Axios.

Diplomats from the U.S., Saudi Arabia, France, Qatar, and Egypt convened in Paris in February to discuss Lebanon’s political crisis, but they came to no explicit agreements or conclusions on the presidential election.

Iran has established a chokehold over the country through Hezbollah’s growing influence. The group's consensus is required for any decision on Lebanon’s future president. Iran’s foreign minister visited Beirut last week and said his country will accept any president chosen by consensus.

What they're saying: The Biden administration on Monday weighed in on the presidential election, saying it "is the time for action to select appropriate leadership and save the country from further disaster." 

The statement by State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller didn’t specifically name any of the candidates but stressed the need “to select appropriate leadership” who can unite the country and lead reforms to save Lebanon’s economy.

“Lebanon needs a president free of corruption who can … advocate for transparency and accountability and put the interests of Lebanon’s people first," Miller said. 

Between the lines: Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has previously announced that whoever is selected as the next president should stand up to the U.S., the ally of the militant group’s nemesis, Israel.

When asked on Tuesday if Miller's statement was a signal that the U.S. opposes the pro-Hezbollah Frangieh, deputy State Department spokesperson Vedant Patel said, "We are not attempting to pick a candidate or put our finger on the scale for anyone one way or the other."

Meanwhile, France has been criticized by Lebanon’s anti-Hezbollah politicians for allegedly supporting Frangieh to serve its “common interests” with the Shiite group.

During Frangieh’s first visit to Paris last month, France reportedly did not ask him to withdraw from the race, but rather to continue working and offer guarantees to Saudi Arabia. 

France, however, has not publicly backed a candidate. 

What to watch: The key to Lebanon’s election of a president is an agreement between the Iranians and the Saudis, Khashan said.

The recent Saudi-Iran rapprochement might open a door to a political settlement but will take time, Khashan noted. The Saudis have other regional priorities to address first, like the war in Yemen.

The Saudis have been pushing for the election of Gen. Joseph Aoun. Khashan said they are still not willing to support a "pro-Iranian president."

U.S. urges Lebanon to elect president after 6 months without a leader

Divisions between the different regional and world powers have stalled the country's presidential election

A Lebanese flag in Beirut. Photo: Liu Zongya/Xinhua via Getty Images

BEIRUT — The U.S. this week urged <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="crisis-hit Lebanon" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/04/05/lebanon-economic-crisis-stability-security-forces" data-vars-content-id="d4c01e5a-a4d9-43a2-b0d7-1bd65b6e97ef" data-vars-headline="U.S. urges Lebanon to elect president after 6 months without a leader" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/04/05/lebanon-economic-crisis-stability-security-forces" target="_self">crisis-hit Lebanon</a> to move “expeditiously” to elect an &quot;appropriate&quot; president six months after the last head of state departed the presidential palace.Why it matters: Divisions between the different regional and world powers have stalled the country&#x27;s presidential election, compounding the country&#x27;s growing economic crisis that has plunged millions into poverty.

BEIRUT — In last week’s escalation between Gaza and Israel, the shots were called by leaders of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad group based in Lebanon — now a strategic center of operations for multiple Palestinian armed groups.

The big picture: As the Arab world normalizes relations with Israel, the leaders of the PIJ and Gaza’s largest militant group, Hamas, have found support from Iran and its militant proxy in Lebanon, Hezbollah.

In recent years, coordination between Hezbollah and the Palestinian groups has increased, particularly since the Gaza war in 2021, Souhayb Jawar, a Lebanese researcher of Islamist political movements, told Axios.

Behind the scenes: Any action carried out by the PIJ, including the recent orders to fire over 1,000 rockets from Gaza into Israel, must pass through Esmail Qaani, the commander of the Quds Force, one of the five branches of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or the Hezbollah operative in charge of coordination with the Quds Force, Jawar said. 

The PIJ maintains close links with Iran, which supplies them with training, expertise and money.

The PIJ’s secretary-general, Ziad al-Nakhaleh, lives in Beirut, in addition to the group’s political leader, Ihsan Ataya, and the leader in charge of Lebanon’s politics, Shakib al-Ayna, according to Jawar.

“Living on the same ground, it makes sense to see this kind of cooperation,” Azmi Keshawi, a Gaza analyst from the International Crisis Group, told Axios.

What they're saying: A day before the Egypt-brokered cease-fire, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah affirmed the party’s support for the PIJ and said, “Hezbollah is in constant contact with the leadership of the resistance in Gaza and we won’t hesitate to offer help at any time needed."

Hamas’s representative in Lebanon, Ahmed Abdel-Hadi, announced during the conflict that there would be two responses to the "Zionist aggression on Gaza." Hamas frequently refers to Lebanon as the "battleground" in the event of a widespread conflict with Israel, Jawar said.

Meanwhile, Lebanon’s Foreign Ministry condemned the “Israeli aggression on the Gaza strip” and called for an immediate cease-fire.

State of play: The majority of Lebanon’s lawmakers kept quiet regarding the Israeli strikes in Gaza. “The current government adopts the principle of dissociation,” Jawhar said.

Lebanon’s parliament is largely split into two camps, one opposed to and one allied with Hezbollah. The opposition camp is keen to sustain relations with the United States and is often silent on matters that might provoke division with the West, he noted.

But Hezbollah’s key Christian allies, the Free Patriotic Movement and the Marada Movement — the party of Hezbollah’s presidential pick, Suleiman Frangieh — did not comment on the Israeli operation in Gaza.

These parties are rejecting the presence and activity of Palestinian militant groups in Lebanon, Jawar said, and they're dissatisfied with any activity that might provoke a war with their southern nemesis. 

The bottom line: The unification of fronts between Hezbollah and Palestinian resistance groups is a way to project deterrence, rather than an intention of war against Israel, Keshawi said.

“If Hezbollah goes to war, he better have Hamas at his side. It’s mutually beneficial for all of them to act as one,” he added.

Palestinian Islamic Jihad calls the shots in Gaza from Lebanon

Lebanon is now a strategic center of operations for multiple Palestinian armed groups.

Israel's Iron Dome air defense system intercepts rockets launched from Gaza City on May 13. Photo: Menahem Kahana/AFP via Getty Images

BEIRUT — In last week’s escalation between Gaza and Israel, the shots were called by leaders of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad group based in Lebanon — now a strategic center of operations for multiple Palestinian armed groups.The big picture: As the Arab world normalizes relations with Israel, the leaders of the PIJ and Gaza’s largest militant group, Hamas, have found support from Iran and its militant proxy in Lebanon, Hezbollah.

AARAMTA, LEBANON — The Lebanese Hezbollah militant group held a rare demonstration of the group's fighting power this week in an apparent attempt to remind the Lebanese people, Israel and Iran about its military capacity and role in the region. 

Why it matters: The military exercise was unusual not only because it was made public — nearly 400 people attended, including Hezbollah supporters and several journalists — but also because it was conducted only 12 miles north of the Israeli border, just outside an area where militias are not allowed to operate under a UN Security Council resolution adopted in 2006.

Rockets fired toward Israel from Lebanon following a violent Israeli military raid on Jerusalem's Haram al-Sharif compound, also known as the Temple Mount, less than two months ago resulted in the most serious escalation between the two countries since the 2006 war. The Israeli military said Hamas was behind the rockets, though Hamas never claimed it fired them. 

Israel responded with strikes in Lebanon. It, however, only targeted Hamas targets in an effort to avoid a wider conflict with Hezbollah. 

Driving the news: Sunday's exercise took place ahead of the annual celebration of “Liberation Day," when the Israeli army withdrew from southern Lebanon on May 25, 2000, after a 15-year occupation of the territory.

During the two-hour staged military exercise, held at one of Hezbollah’s training sites in southern Lebanon, fighters jumped through flaming hoops, demonstrated their hand-to-hand knife combat skills, and fired off the back of motorcycles at Israeli-flag targets.

At the end, Hezbollah’s fighters emerged from plumes of gun and rocket-fire smoke, ripped out an Israeli flag, and planted in its place the distinctive yellow and green flag of the militant group. Claps and cheers then erupted from the audience, which faded into religious chants and melodies.

Dalal Shahrour who came to attend the military show from the Beddawi Palestinian refugee camp in northern Lebanon told Axios that Palestinians “have high hopes that Palestine will be liberated very, very, very soon and Israel will be defeated and we will return."

“The people who saw the show can really feel the power of Hezbollah,” said a 22-year-old Lebanese Christian youth, who supports the Shiite group and asked to remain anonymous. “What I like about Hezbollah is that they’re not just fighting for themselves … they are defending the Lebanese people,” he told Axios at the event.

The other side: A day after the exercises, Israel’s chief of military intelligence, Aharon Haliva, said that Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was “close to making a mistake that could plunge the region into a big war” and warned that Israel would be “ready to use force” in the event of an escalation on the Israeli-Lebanese or Syrian border.

The U.S. and Israel consider Hezbollah a terrorist organization. 

What they're saying: Hezbollah deputy secretary-general Sheikh Naim Qassem said the military drill sends a “message of deterrence” and “readiness to confront any Zionist aggression and defend Lebanon.''

He added that the weapons presented during the exercise represent a fraction of Hezbollah’s arsenal and stressed that the organization’s precision missiles weren’t shown.

Although no precision-guided missiles were displayed at the military show, Hezbollah did reveal a new anti-drone weapon.

Lebanon’s caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati criticized Hezbollah’s public show of force and told the UN special envoy in Lebanon this week that “the issue” of Hezbollah’s weapons “must be among the priorities of the coming phase."

Between the lines: “The parade demonstrates how much weaker the Lebanese state has become while Hezbollah grows its military capabilities,” Mohanad Hage Ali, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Middle East Center, told Axios, noting how the country’s army and security forces have weakened as its state coffers dry up.

Editor's note: This story was corrected to reflect that Hezbollah's military drills took place just outside the area where militias are not allowed to operate under a UN Security Council resolution, not inside the area.

Inside Hezbollah's wargames near the Israeli border

Fighters jumped through flaming hoops, demonstrated their hand-to-hand knife combat skills, and fired off the back of motorcycles at Israeli-flag targets.

 Pro-Iranian Hezbollah fighters take part in a staged military exercise in a camp in the Lebanese southern village of Aramta. Marwan Naamani/picture alliance via Getty Images

Pro-Iranian Hezbollah fighters take part in a staged military exercise in a camp in the Lebanese southern village of Aaramta on May 21. Photo: Marwan Naamani/picture alliance via Getty Images

AARAMTA, LEBANON — The<a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text=" Lebanese Hezbollah" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/04/07/israel-strikes-lebanon-hamas-hezbollah-gaza" data-vars-content-id="dff7f6c5-c7ad-41f2-85b9-ca76ad6d8839" data-vars-headline="Inside Hezbollah&#x27;s wargames near the Israeli border" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/04/07/israel-strikes-lebanon-hamas-hezbollah-gaza" target="_self"> Lebanese Hezbollah</a> militant group held a rare demonstration of the group&#x27;s fighting power this week in an apparent attempt to remind the Lebanese people, Israel and Iran about its military capacity and role in the region. Why it matters: The military exercise was unusual not only because it was made public — nearly 400 people attended, including Hezbollah supporters and several journalists — but also because it was conducted only 12 miles north of the Israeli border, just outside an area where militias are not allowed to operate under a UN Security Council resolution adopted in 2006.

Hanna Davis

Stories

Inside Hezbollah's wargames near the Israeli border

Palestinian Islamic Jihad calls the shots in Gaza from Lebanon

U.S. urges Lebanon to elect president after 6 months without a leader

Rockets fired from Lebanon highlight growing Hamas-Hezbollah ties, experts say

Lebanon crisis threatens stability of security forces