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As 2019 comes to a close, a military offensive launched by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Idlib has killed at least 100 civilians and displaced more than 235,000, creating a new nightmare in a region already racked by humanitarian catastrophe.

The big picture: The recent strikes are part of a wider government campaign to reassert authority over Idlib, Syria’s last remaining rebel stronghold. Nearly 3 million civilians are trapped in the northwestern province, boxed in by Turkey's closed border.

Where it stands: As the bombing campaign targets schools and hospitals, civilians have sought shelter in overcrowded, informal settlements that lack basic necessities. Some families with young children are living in the open air, despite heavy rains and cold winter weather.

With Turkey already hosting roughly 3.7 million Syrian refugees, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has refused to open the border to more. In recent months, Ankara has instead deported some Syrians back to Idlib and announced plans to return as many as a million more to areas seized during Turkey's October invasion of northeast Syria.

Between the lines: The Assad regime’s immediate objective appears to be to seize the town of Maaret al-Numan and thereby reopen the strategic highway linking the capital of Damascus with the northern city of Aleppo.

Last Thursday President Trump warned the regime and its international benefactors, Russia and Iran, to end the carnage, but stopped short of outlining consequences if they fail to do so.

What to watch: The UN Security Council resolution authorizing cross-border delivery of humanitarian aid to areas of Syria outside regime control is set to expire on January 10, yet two weeks ago China and Russia vetoed its renewal. Ending the flow of aid would cut a critical lifeline.

The bottom line: The situation in Idlib will continue to deteriorate as the civilian population brace for the end of the UN assistance while trapped between the brutal regime offensive and Turkey’s closed border. At this rate, 2020 is shaping up to be the worst humanitarian chapter of the Syrian conflict.

Hardin Lang is vice president for programs and policy at Refugees International.

Renewed regime bombing campaign worsens crisis in northwest Syria

As many as 235,000 civilians have been displaced and UN humanitarian aid is in jeopardy.

children playing in between tents on wet ground of refugee camp

A Syrian refugee camp in Sarmada, near the Turkish border. Photo: Aref Tammawi/AFP via Getty Images

World

Syria

Expert Voices

As 2019 comes to a close, a military offensive launched by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Idlib has killed at least 100 civilians and <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="displaced more than 235,000" data-vars-click-url="https://www.unocha.org/story/syria-update-situation-north-west" data-vars-content-id="65845a2d-db4c-4c4e-99c8-0b17bb9425ab" data-vars-headline="Renewed regime bombing campaign worsens crisis in northwest Syria" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.unocha.org/story/syria-update-situation-north-west" target="_blank">displaced more than 235,000</a>, creating a new nightmare in a region already racked by humanitarian catastrophe.The big picture: The recent strikes are part of a wider government campaign to reassert authority over Idlib, Syria’s last remaining rebel stronghold. Nearly 3 million civilians are trapped in the northwestern province, boxed in by Turkey&#x27;s closed border.

China is becoming the most formidable rival America has faced, and the risk of confrontation with Russia, North Korea or Iran still looms. Authoritarians are rising, the chaotic Afghanistan exit revealed the limits of U.S. power, and the pandemic, climate change and other critical challenges continue to pose grave threats.

The agreement reached between Russia and Turkey on Tuesday for a "safe zone" 20 miles into northeast Syria secures a goal long sought by Ankara, but the current ceasefire remains fragile and the deal carries challenges of its own.

The big picture: The deal solidifies the diplomatic marginalization of the U.S. in an area where until weeks ago it had been a stabilizing force. Nevertheless, President Trump hailed the agreement as a "huge success" and announced that the U.S. would lift its recent sanctions on Turkey.

Where it stands: The Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) now has 150 hours to complete its withdrawal before Russian and Syrian government forces launch joint patrols with Turkish forces inside the zone.

Turkey will retain direct control over a roughly 70-mile stretch of land between the towns of Tal Abyad and Ras al-Ain, much of it seized in the last few weeks. YPG fighters withdrew from this area under the terms of the ceasefire negotiated between the U.S. and Turkey last week.

Most of the remaining 1,000 U.S. troops have redeployed to Iraq. A U.S contingent may remain in Deir ez-Zor to guard the region’s oil supply, but such a small presence would likely not have a meaningful strategic impact.

Between the lines: Despite fanfare in some quarters, the Russia-Turkey deal suffers from serious challenges.

The YPG is not party to the agreement, and its fighters are unlikely to voluntarily abandon Syrian Kurds who live in these towns and villages within six days.

It's not clear that the Bashar al-Assad regime and Russia are in a position to directly compel their withdrawal (Damascus and Moscow are already in the midst of a campaign next door in Idlib province). Rather, Russia has warned the Kurds to pull out of the safe zone or risk being crushed by Turkey.

Despite its assurances to President Trump, Turkey is still poised to press its invasion of northeast Syria. If it tries to fully clear the YPG from the border area, Turkey would once again employ its Syrian proxy militia, which has committed horrific abuses against Kurdish civilians in recent weeks.

The bottom line: Renewed conflict in northeast Syria is increasingly likely. Further violence could pave the way for ethnic cleansing, forcing hundreds of thousands of additional Kurdish civilians to flee their homes and letting Turkey resettle the safe zone mainly with Syrian Arab refugees.

Syria's northeast still at risk after "safe zone" deal

The Kurdish fighters are expected to withdraw but are not party to the agreement.

fighters in and around a small fleet of cars and trucks

Turkey-backed Syrian fighters outside Tal Abyad, Syria. Photo: Bakr Alkasem/AFP via Getty Images

The agreement reached between Russia and Turkey on Tuesday for a &quot;safe zone&quot; 20 miles into northeast Syria secures a goal long sought by Ankara, but the current ceasefire remains fragile and the deal carries challenges of its own.The big picture: The deal solidifies the diplomatic marginalization of the U.S. in an area where until weeks ago it had been a stabilizing force. Nevertheless, President Trump hailed the agreement as a &quot;huge success&quot; and announced that the U.S. would lift its recent sanctions on Turkey.

President Biden has made the COVID-19 crisis and a post-Trump return to national unity and traditional democratic ideals his top priorities. From vaccinations to stimulus to schools, Biden is seeking bipartisan compromise while showing a willingness to use executive authority and bare Democratic majorities in the U.S. House and Senate to implement his policies. Republican leaders are navigating deep party divisions over if and how to move beyond former President Trump.

Politics & Policy

A newly agreed ceasefire in Idlib, Syria's last opposition stronghold, could offer a welcomed respite for the province’s desperate civilian population. But if the agreement doesn't hold, its collapse could usher in the worst humanitarian chapter of the 8-year conflict. 

The big picture: The Syrian government announced the ceasefire shortly after UN Secretary-General António Guterres authorized an investigation — requested by a majority of the Security Council — into the Syrian and Russian bombing of hospitals and schools in Idlib. The terms pause the Assad regime's offensive in exchange for a 20-kilometer (12.4-mile) withdrawal by opposition fighters.

Where it stands: Some 3 million people are sheltering in Idlib. Extensive Russian-Syrian bombardment has killed hundreds, injured thousands, and displaced some 440,000 people.

In just 3 months, the regime's offensive has led to the war's single largest mass displacement, while humanitarians lack access to the city and resources to respond.

Background: The demand for a rebel withdrawal is in line with the agreement reached in Sochi, Russia, last September.

Under Sochi, Turkey was responsible for — but failed to deliver — the rebel withdrawal. The deal collapsed in April when the Assad regime launched an assault on Idlib, backed by a Russian bombing campaign.

To date, Assad’s troops have made little progress against the rebels, including the al-Qaeda–linked militants and other jihadi groups that dominate Idlib province.

Between the lines: In agreeing to the ceasefire, Moscow and Damascus may be responding to both renewed UN scrutiny and military realities on the ground. The regime has used past ceasefires to resupply troops and prepare for subsequent offensives.

What's next: No timeline has been set for the withdrawal of opposition fighters. There is little reason to believe the rebels will meet that demand, which was also a central condition of the Sochi agreement. Indeed, Assad used their refusal to leave demilitarized zones to justify the recent offensive.

The ceasefire comes amid talks to plan a new constitutional committee — sponsored by Russia and held in Kazakhstan — among the Syrian government, the opposition, Iran and Turkey.

Unless Turkey can compel the rebels to withdraw, fighting will likely resume. If it does, the UN warns that the unfolding humanitarian crisis could be the worst of the 21st century.

Ceasefire in Syria's Idlib province brings fragile reprieve

If it collapses, the UN fears an even worse humanitarian crisis.

Men on a motorcycle ride by an airstrike-damaged building

Destroyed buildings in the town of Ariha, in the south of Syria's Idlib province. Photo: Omar Haj Kadour/AFP/Getty Images

Syrian Civil War

A newly agreed <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="ceasefire" data-vars-click-url="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/08/syria-agrees-conditional-ceasefire-rebel-held-idlib-190801180202440.html" data-vars-content-id="a7e11cdc-e4c0-4b41-ae06-0bd1db8ee2cf" data-vars-headline="Ceasefire in Syria&#x27;s Idlib province brings fragile reprieve" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/08/syria-agrees-conditional-ceasefire-rebel-held-idlib-190801180202440.html" target="_blank">ceasefire</a> in Idlib, Syria&#x27;s last opposition stronghold, could offer a welcomed respite for the province’s desperate civilian population. But if the agreement doesn&#x27;t hold, its collapse could usher in the worst humanitarian chapter of the 8-year conflict. The big picture: The Syrian government announced the ceasefire shortly after UN Secretary-General António Guterres <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="authorized an investigation" data-vars-click-url="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/01/world/middleeast/syria-says-it-agrees-to-cease-fire-in-rebel-stronghold.html" data-vars-content-id="a7e11cdc-e4c0-4b41-ae06-0bd1db8ee2cf" data-vars-headline="Ceasefire in Syria&#x27;s Idlib province brings fragile reprieve" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/01/world/middleeast/syria-says-it-agrees-to-cease-fire-in-rebel-stronghold.html" target="_blank">authorized an investigation</a> — requested by a majority of the Security Council — into the Syrian and Russian bombing of hospitals and schools in Idlib. The terms pause the Assad regime&#x27;s offensive in exchange for a 20-kilometer (12.4-mile) withdrawal by opposition fighters.

The withdrawal of U.S. troops from northern Syria, announced by President Trump on Sunday evening, gives Turkey a green light to sweep into the region and threatens the U.S.-allied Syrian Kurdish forces who helped combat the Islamic State.

Why it matters: The move could open new fronts of conflict and displace hundreds of thousands of civilians across an area already in the grip of a humanitarian crisis. It also risks ceding more territory to the control of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

Background: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has pledged to create a “safe zone” that pushes the Syrian Kurdish forces — known as the YPG — up to 20 miles away from the border. Turkey considers the YPG to be a terrorist organization affiliated with the PKK, the Kurdish militant and political group Turkey has been fighting since 1984.

The U.S. and Turkey have been working on an incremental approach to a more limited safe zone, which had seen the Syrian Kurdish forces dismantle their defensive positions along the Turkish border. Now Erdogan appears to be opting for a more maximalist approach.

Erdogan also wants to send up to a million Syrian refugees now in Turkey across the border to the safe zone in Syria — furthering a recent crackdown on Syrians that has sent some back into war-torn Idlib and may see others flee to Europe.

A Turkish incursion is likely to spark fighting between the Turks and the Syrian Kurds, who have pledged to “defend northeast Syria at all costs.” This would pull the YPG away from the campaign against the Islamic State — amid an ongoing resurgence by the terrorist group. U.S. officials have indicated that American forces will not intervene in fighting between the Turks and the Syrian Kurds.

Most international relief groups operating in northeast Syria would be forced to pull out, leaving just when humanitarian aid would be most needed to cope with massive civilian displacement.

Syrian Kurds, betrayed by the U.S., could turn to the Assad regime and the Russians for protection against Turkey — an outcome the U.S. has sought to avoid. The net result could be the return of significant parts of northeast Syria to regime control without Damascus having to fire a shot.

The announcement has been quickly met with resistance in Washington, including threats from Congress to sanction Turkey or call for its suspension from NATO if Kurdish forces face attack.

U.S. exit from Syria leaves civilians and Kurdish fighters at risk

The decision could amplify security threats to the U.S. and across the region.

Syrian Kurds around a U.S. armored vehicle during a demonstration against Turkish threats, Oct. 6. Photo: Delil Souleiman/AFP via Getty Images

Kurds

The <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="withdrawal of U.S. troops" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/turkey-syria-kurdish-fighters-trump-erdogan-call-86ec28e7-3a07-4870-ab55-0aadfc21d85d.html" data-vars-content-id="bd7c05dc-e827-4ae0-aa11-6d6eeb8fcca2" data-vars-headline="U.S. exit from Syria leaves civilians and Kurdish fighters at risk" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/turkey-syria-kurdish-fighters-trump-erdogan-call-86ec28e7-3a07-4870-ab55-0aadfc21d85d.html" target="_self">withdrawal of U.S. troops</a> from northern Syria, announced by President Trump on Sunday evening, gives Turkey a green light to sweep into the region and threatens the U.S.-allied Syrian Kurdish forces who helped combat the Islamic State.Why it matters: The move could open new fronts of conflict and displace hundreds of thousands of civilians across an area already in the grip of a humanitarian crisis. It also risks ceding more territory to the control of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

Across the globe, the number of people forcibly displaced by conflict and persecution has risen to more than 70 million, almost double the number a decade ago, according to the latest annual report from the UN High Commission for Refugees.

Why it matters: The trends make clear that forced displacement has become an “entrenched norm,” as people continue to be uprooted by (mostly civil) war and for longer periods of time. Almost 16 million refugees have been in exile for 5 or more consecutive years in a given host country, and 6 million have been displaced for more than 20 years.

Details: The total figure includes 41 million people displaced within their own country, 25.6 million refugees and 3.5 million asylum seekers. Even still, it likely underestimates realities on the ground, as UNHCR’s official tallies are unable to capture some refugees who have not formally applied for asylum.

Just 5 countries — Afghanistan, Myanmar, Somalia, South Sudan and Syria — produced more than two-thirds of the world’s refugees.

Turkey, Pakistan and Uganda were the top host countries, and Germany was the only Western country in the top 10.

Between the lines: The newly displaced are fleeing new violence and old conflicts. Some 13.6 million people were newly displaced in 2018 — an average of 37,000 people per day.

The largest number of newly displaced came from Ethiopia, where more than 1.5 million have fled new intercommunal violence.

The next largest displacement was in Syria, where almost 900,000 people were forced from their homes by renewed fighting. This trend has accelerated in 2019. Since May 1, a regime offensive into Idlib province has displaced some 330,000 people.

What to watch: Governments are granting asylum to fewer people. In 2018, only 44% of asylum decisions resulted in any form of protection, down from 49% in 2017 and 60% in 2016.

But, but, but: Despite the negative trends, there are reasons for hope.

Ethiopia passed a law in January that enables refugees to obtain work permits and access education, Colombia gave residency and work permits to more than 500,000 Venezuelans, and Pakistan made it possible for refugees to open bank accounts.

These expanded protections are acknowledgments by host countries that refugees can contribute to local communities.

Go deeper: Read Axios' deep dive on global refugees.

Global refugees face increasing risk of long-term displacement

As many as 6 million have been displaced for more than 20 years.

Syrian children next to a tent in a refugee camp

Syrian children at a refugee camp in Hatay, Turkey. Photo: Cem Genco/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

Refugees

Across the globe, the number of people forcibly displaced by conflict and persecution has risen to more than 70 million, almost double the number a decade ago, according to the <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="latest annual report" data-vars-click-url="https://www.unhcr.org/globaltrends2018/#" data-vars-content-id="e376d1a2-69d9-4aef-9975-c829eea8be2a" data-vars-headline="Global refugees face increasing risk of long-term displacement" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.unhcr.org/globaltrends2018/#" target="_blank">latest annual report</a> from the UN High Commission for Refugees.Why it matters: The trends make clear that forced displacement has become an “entrenched norm,” as people continue to be uprooted by (mostly civil) war and for longer periods of time. Almost 16 million refugees have been in exile for 5 or more consecutive years in a given host country, and 6 million have been displaced for more than 20 years.

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Renewed regime bombing campaign worsens crisis in northwest Syria

Syria's northeast still at risk after "safe zone" deal

U.S. exit from Syria leaves civilians and Kurdish fighters at risk

Ceasefire in Syria's Idlib province brings fragile reprieve

Global refugees face increasing risk of long-term displacement