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A dispute over Houthi withdrawals from critical ports in Yemen is threatening the success of a deal negotiated late last year with the country's internationally recognized  government.

Why it matters: The Stockholm agreement, considered a breakthrough when  announced in December, was intended to improve Yemen’s dire humanitarian situation and build confidence between the government and the Iran-backed Houthis. But scant progress has been made, raising concerns about the UN’s ability to broker a permanent peace  between the warring parties.

Background: For the past 5 months, Yemen's government has pointed to the Houthis’  reluctance to withdraw from the Yemeni ports of Hodeidah, Salif and Rass-Issaas as evidence of their insincerity.

The initially planned withdrawal reached a stalemate last December, when questions were raised about the Houthi ties of Yemeni Coast Guard units who had been set to assume control of the port.

Where it stands: The Houthi withdrawal finally began last weekend, and UN Special Envoy Martin Griffiths briefed the Security Council on Wednesday on its progress.

Yemen’s government declared the withdrawal a sham, on the basis that it was prevented from monitoring and verifying the operation in “violation” of their agreement, leaving Houthi loyalists in charge.

The UN views any Houthi pullback as vital to ensuring the flow of humanitarian aid. It would also allow for removing mines from around the ports and responding to a derelict oil tanker anchored off Salif that could explode at any time.

What’s next: Yemen's government has been left in a difficult position after  the withdrawal, worried about the UN's ability to act as a neutral arbiter and the threat posed by Houthi forces positioned just outside Hodeidah.

Objections aside, the government is likely to withdraw as planned a few kilometers back from where they are currently stationed in Hodeidah’s outskirts, while pressing for neutral port management by professional staff and law enforcement officials employed before the Houthi takeover in 2014.

The UN's ceasefire statement has already been contradicted by reports of clashes between the Yemeni government and Houthi forces in Hodeidah. Absent an enforcement mechanism for the UN to hold violators accountable, the violence could quickly escalate.

The bottom line: Unless the special envoy can guarantee the neutrality and safety  of the port, the most critical part of the Stockholm agreement is in danger of collapse.

Fatima Abo Alasrar is a senior analyst at the Arabia Foundation.

Violence and mistrust jeopardize ceasefire at Yemeni ports

Troop withdrawals have raised disputes and sparked new clashes.

UN peacekeepers and acting governor of Hodeidah walking near port

Acting Governor of Hodeida Mohammed Ayash Quhaim with members of the UN mission. Photo: AFP/Getty Images

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Yemeni Civil War

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A dispute over Houthi withdrawals from critical ports in Yemen is threatening the success of a deal negotiated late last year with the country&#x27;s internationally recognized government.Why it matters: The Stockholm agreement, considered a breakthrough when <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text=" announced" data-vars-click-url="https://osesgy.unmissions.org/full-text-stockholm-agreement" data-vars-content-id="3990aff7-6cea-4035-9d4a-611b2ca4bc76" data-vars-headline="Violence and mistrust jeopardize ceasefire at Yemeni ports" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://osesgy.unmissions.org/full-text-stockholm-agreement" target="_blank"> announced</a> in December, was intended to improve Yemen’s dire humanitarian situation and build confidence between the government and the Iran-backed Houthis. But scant progress has been made, raising concerns about the UN’s ability to broker a permanent peace between the warring parties.

The UN-backed discussions in Stockholm between Yemen’s internationally recognized government and Houthi rebels ended on Dec. 13 in a series of agreements that, if successfully implemented, will help alleviate Yemen’s humanitarian crisis and may ultimately pave the way for a negotiated peace. 

Why it matters: The two sides have been fighting since September 2014 in a conflict that has entangled regional powers, along with the U.S., and created a humanitarian catastrophe. The results of the Stockholm meeting could herald the war’s first real breakthrough, but both sides will need to quickly make good on their commitments, or the positive momentum could stall.

Where it stands: Expectations for the talks were low, but they yielded several key agreements — on building confidence, reducing violence, and preparing for peace negotiations — and a commitment to take up outstanding issues in 2019.

By getting the government to agree to a prisoner exchange, the Houthis shore up their manpower and their credibility. In agreeing to turn control of Hodeidah’s seaport over to the UN, they also ensure that critical humanitarian aid and commercial goods will continue to flow into North Yemen.

By securing the withdrawal of Houthi militias from the city of Hodeidah, the government recovers a key strategic location from Houthi control and avoids a costly offensive that could have claimed thousands of civilian lives.

Yes, but: Sticking points remain. The Yemeni government did not show flexibility on an agreement that would have ensured the payment of civil servants’ salaries in Houthi territory, while a tentative agreement to reopen Sana’a’s airport, another key Houthi demand, fell apart at the last minute. The Houthis also refused to lift their siege of Ta’iz city (although they did agree to establish a joint committee to explore the issue) or provide locations for tens of thousands of landmines.

Additionally, despite an eagerness to begin peace negotiations on the Houthis’ part, the government, mistrustful of Houthi intentions, deferred them until the Stockholm agreements are implemented.

The bottom line: The Stockholm agreements can improve Yemen’s humanitarian situation, but Houthi failures to abide by past agreements, the government’s belief that it’s winning the war and that time is on their side, and the fact that the cease-fire applies only to Hodeidah will make implementation a formidable challenge.

Stockholm deal brings partial peace to Yemen, but fraught with risks

Momentum could stall if both sides don't quickly meet their commitments.

Rebel negotiator Mohammed Abdelsalam holds a press conference together with members of the delegation following the peace consultations taking place near Stockholm

Rebel negotiator Mohammed Abdelsalam during a press conference after UN-backed discussions, near Stockholm, Sweden, on December 13, 2018. Photo: Jonathan Nackstrand/AFP via Getty Images

Yemen

The UN-backed discussions in Stockholm between Yemen’s internationally recognized government and Houthi rebels ended on Dec. 13 in a series of agreements that, if successfully implemented, will help alleviate Yemen’s humanitarian crisis and may ultimately pave the way for a negotiated peace. Why it matters: The two sides have been fighting since September 2014 in a conflict that has entangled regional powers, along with the U.S., and created a humanitarian catastrophe. The results of the Stockholm meeting could herald the war’s first real breakthrough, but both sides will need to quickly make good on their commitments, or the positive momentum could stall.

Military confrontations between Yemen's internationally recognized government and a regional separatist group, the Southern Transitional Council (STC), are threatening to open a new frontier in the country's civil war.

Why it matters: The Saudis and Emiratis now face divisions among their allies in the fight against Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels. They are currently facilitating indirect talks in Jeddah to de-escalate tensions between the government and the STC, but a new round of violence could erupt if that effort falls through.

Driving the news: Last month, a ballistic missile attack on UAE-backed Security Belt Forces in the interim capital of Aden killed more than 30 soldiers. Although Houthis claimed responsibility, the STC accused government officials from the al-Islah party, which is loosely affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood, of plotting the attack to weaken their southern leadership.

STC forces subsequently overtook Aden's airport and advanced to nearby cities of Shabwa and Abyan, while the government mobilized troops from northern and tribal areas — renewing a sense of oppression that augmented calls for southern independence.

Tensions escalated further after the UAE conducted an airstrike against targets it declared terrorists but which the Yemeni government claimed as members of its army.

Context: The southern independence movement has been a 2-decade-long struggle, slowed by state repression and imprisonment of its leaders.

Yemen's government has been self-exiled in Riyadh, unable to provide security for citizens or fully function in the south, which diminished its support.

As the Yemen government's relationship with the UAE has soured, it has asked its Saudi partners to help end the Emiratis' “flagrant interference” on behalf of the STC.

What to watch: Since STC-allied forces have assisted the Saudi-led military coalition, they hope to secure guarantees for their overall objective of reclaiming their southern state — support the Saudis are unlikely to deliver.

At most, Saudi Arabia might back a power-sharing agreement, not wanting to harm its relationship with Yemen's government or risk being left with a de facto Houthi state on the Saudi border.

The fraught politics of the conflict may continue to limit open dialogue, complicating attempts to accommodate each party's divergent interests.

Fatima Abo Alasrar is a non-resident scholar at the Middle East Institute.

Southern separatism threatens new front in Yemen's war

Saudi Arabia and the UAE are trying to smooth tensions between breakaway and pro-government groups.

separatist security forces with military vehicles in the middle of a road

Fighters in Yemen's UAE–trained, STC–heavy Security Belt Force near the Aden airport. Photo: Nabil Hasan/AFP/Getty Images

Military confrontations between Yemen&#x27;s internationally recognized government and a regional separatist group, the Southern Transitional Council (STC), are threatening to open a new frontier in the country&#x27;s civil war.Why it matters: The Saudis and Emiratis now face divisions among their allies in the fight against Yemen&#x27;s Iran-backed Houthi rebels. They are currently <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="facilitating indirect" data-vars-click-url="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-yemen-security/yemens-government-starts-indirect-talks-with-southern-separatists-in-saudi-arabia-officials-idUSKCN1VP1Q6" data-vars-content-id="a96509ee-0a1a-4cc7-8d9c-12c0a608b23b" data-vars-headline="Southern separatism threatens new front in Yemen&#x27;s war" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-yemen-security/yemens-government-starts-indirect-talks-with-southern-separatists-in-saudi-arabia-officials-idUSKCN1VP1Q6" target="_blank">facilitating indirect</a> talks in Jeddah to de-escalate tensions between the government and the STC, but a new round of violence could erupt if that effort falls through.

Fatima Abo Alasrar

Stories

Southern separatism threatens new front in Yemen's war

Violence and mistrust jeopardize ceasefire at Yemeni ports

Stockholm deal brings partial peace to Yemen, but fraught with risks