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The Trump administration's decision to put Mohammad Javad Zarif, Iran’s mellifluous foreign minister, on the Treasury Department’s sanctions list makes clear that the means of pressure and sanctions have increasingly become the end goal of the U.S.' Iran policy.

The big picture: When President Trump withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal last May, he insisted he could negotiate a much better agreement. More than a year later, however, the U.S. is no closer to such talks, dangers across the Middle East have escalated and the man who would have led Iran's negotiations has been sidelined — at least from the Trump administration's point of view.

Driving the news: Officially, sanctions on Zarif extend the “maximum pressure” campaign intended to force the Islamic Republic to retreat from foreign interventions and end its uranium enrichment. 

Yes, but: Iran has become more assertive in its neighborhood and is now breaching limits set in the nuclear deal — the opposite of the Trump administration’s stated goals.

Between the lines: Iran hawks in the U.S. have been irked by Zarif's American media appearances, particularly a controversial Fox News interview in April. Zarif was educated in the U.S. and has a rolodex full of contacts to call upon from his time as Iran’s UN ambassador.

Ironically, this personal assault on Zarif may boost his fortunes in Iran, where hardliners have blamed him for negotiating an agreement that has led to more economic misery instead of promised sanctions relief.

What to watch:  It remains to be seen whether the Trump administration will try to bar Zarif from attending the annual September meeting of the UN General Assembly in New York City, an event Zarif uses to meet with American politicians, scholars and journalists. Such a move could potentially violate the U.S.' host country agreement that allows accredited diplomats to participate.

For now, Zarif still has access to what has become the main channel of communication between the U.S. and Iran in the Trump era: Twitter. He responded to his sanctioning by tweeting, “It has no effect on me or my family, as I have no property or interests outside of Iran. Thank you for considering me such a huge threat to your agenda.”

Barbara Slavin directs the Future of Iran Initiative at the Atlantic Council.

U.S. sanctions on Iran are becoming an end, not a means

New sanctions against Foreign Minister Zarif do little to advance stated U.S. goals.

Mohammad Zarif seated at a conference table

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif. Photo: Atta Kenare/AFP/Getty Images

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Iran

Expert Voices

The Trump administration&#x27;s decision to put Mohammad Javad Zarif, Iran’s mellifluous foreign minister, on the <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Treasury Department’s sanctions" data-vars-click-url="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/31/world/middleeast/trump-iran-sanctions-zarif.html" data-vars-content-id="47e246d9-d9be-4f8c-9670-8a057fc8209e" data-vars-headline="U.S. sanctions on Iran are becoming an end, not a means" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/31/world/middleeast/trump-iran-sanctions-zarif.html" target="_blank">Treasury Department’s sanctions</a> list makes clear that the means of pressure and sanctions have increasingly become the end goal of the U.S.&#x27; Iran policy.The big picture: When President Trump withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal last May, he insisted he could negotiate a much better agreement. More than a year later, however, the U.S. is no closer to such talks, dangers across the Middle East have escalated and the man who would have led Iran&#x27;s negotiations has been sidelined — at least from the Trump administration&#x27;s point of view.

China is becoming the most formidable rival America has faced, and the risk of confrontation with Russia, North Korea or Iran still looms. Authoritarians are rising, the chaotic Afghanistan exit revealed the limits of U.S. power, and the pandemic, climate change and other critical challenges continue to pose grave threats.

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo did his best on Thursday to paper over the contradictions in the Trump administration’s Middle East policy, in a speech that was heavy on Iran bashing and light on criticism of U.S. allies.

The big picture: Pompeo performed his greatest verbal gymnastics when seeking to project an image of U.S. resolve against both Iran and the Islamic State, or ISIS, despite President Trump’s decision to withdraw troops from Syria — the main purpose of the secretary’s current Mideast tour. But given varying White House statements, Pompeo’s claims that withdrawing the 2,000 U.S. troops from Syria doesn't constitute “a change in mission” deserve skepticism.

Details: Pompeo directed heavy rhetorical fire at Iran. In contrast to President Obama — who in a major 2009 address in Cairo expressed his desire for a new relationship with Tehran, despite a history of mutual grievances — Pompeo promised “to confront the ayatollahs, not coddle them” and to combat “the full array of the regime’s malign activities.”

He defended the Trump administration’s decision to unilaterally withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal and said that the 12 demands he outlined for Iran to become a “normal nation” in his first major speech as secretary last May are still U.S. policy.

Unlike his predecessor in the George W. Bush administration, Condoleezza Rice, who chided U.S. partners for jailing dissidents, Pompeo made no mention of Saudi Arabia's brutal murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi or its continued incarceration of peaceful advocates of reform.

Pompeo also called on Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi to “unleash the creative energy of Egypt’s people,” but praised his “courage” in “promoting religious freedom” — even as some 60,000 political prisoners languish in Egyptians jails, five years after Sisi took power in a coup.

The bottom line: To the extent that the Trump administration has a strategy for the Middle East, it appears light on military presence and heavy on rhetoric and economic sanctions. Echoing Obama, Pompeo called this a “new beginning,” but whether it will be any more successful than his predecessors' initiatives remains to be seen.

In Cairo speech, Pompeo tries to straighten out Trump's Mideast policy

He insisted the U.S. withdrawal from Syria isn't a change in mission.

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo holds a joint press conference with his Egyptian counterpart following their meeting at the ministry of foreign affairs in Cairo on January 10, 2019. 

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo at a press conference in Cairo, Jan. 10. Photo: Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images

Mike Pompeo

Politics

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo did his best on Thursday to paper over the contradictions in the Trump administration’s Middle East policy, <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="in a speech" data-vars-click-url="https://www.apnews.com/90d2825efb9b48c3a6ca2aa9a82a15eb" data-vars-content-id="5674b67d-1e40-4434-90d6-e354ef0cc746" data-vars-headline="In Cairo speech, Pompeo tries to straighten out Trump&#x27;s Mideast policy" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.apnews.com/90d2825efb9b48c3a6ca2aa9a82a15eb" target="_blank">in a speech</a> that was heavy on Iran bashing and light on criticism of U.S. allies.The big picture: Pompeo performed his greatest verbal gymnastics when seeking to project an image of U.S. resolve against both Iran and the Islamic State, or ISIS, despite President Trump’s decision to withdraw troops from Syria — the main purpose of the secretary’s current Mideast tour. But given varying White House statements, Pompeo’s claims that withdrawing the 2,000 U.S. troops from Syria doesn&#x27;t constitute “a change in mission” deserve skepticism.

The Trump administration Monday dramatically escalated its campaign of economic warfare against Iran, announcing that it would not renew any waivers for countries to import Iranian oil after May 2.

The big picture: Per Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, the goal is for Iran to reverse its foreign and domestic policies and accede to 12 demands he set out in a speech last year. But the plan is certain to face pushback from importers of Iranian oil, raise prices for consumers and further erode the value of sanctions as a tool of diplomacy.

The lapsing waivers, following the U.S. designation of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps as a foreign terrorist organization, expand the administration's approach of unilateral coercion against Iran.

Where it stands: In anticipation of the announcement, world oil prices hit their highest level since November, when the U.S. re-imposed sanctions on Iran following withdrawal from the nuclear deal.

With Libya in chaos and Venezuelan exports depressed by sanctions and deteriorating infrastructure, it will be difficult for consumers of heavy crude to find adequate substitutes despite the administration's claims that Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and U.S. production will increase to fill the gaps.

The impact: Pompeo claimed the U.S. is acting in the interests of the Iranian people, but they will pay the biggest price as Iran's hard currency earnings dwindle and their government shores up support among its conservative base.

What to watch: Whether Iran's main remaining customers — China, Turkey and India — will bow to U.S. demands remains uncertain. China has denounced the secondary sanctions as illegal; Turkey is a major importer of Iranian energy, as is India, which is in the throes of parliamentary elections.

Enforcement will also present challenges for the U.S. Transactions between Iran and its major trading partners already avoid the U.S. dollar, and new mechanisms such as Europe's INSTEX are being developed to reduce the dollar's dominance in international transactions.

Overuse of sanctions, without a clear and realistic goal, could simply encourage more such efforts and ultimately reduce the utility of sanctions as a tool of international diplomacy.

The bottom line: Long accustomed to sanctions and to changing U.S. policies, Iran will likely hunker down and ride out the Trump administration and its threats.

How Trump’s push to end Iran oil exports could backfire

The affected countries are likely to push back, and U.S. consumers could feel the effects.

Mike Pompeo at a lectern during State Department press conference

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo at the State Department press conference on April 22. Photo: Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP/Getty Images

The Trump administration Monday dramatically escalated its campaign of economic warfare against Iran, announcing that it <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="would not renew any waivers" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/iran-oil-sanctions-waivers-price-mike-pompeo-db296725-8f92-4d3a-9bfc-3b708d636a81.html" data-vars-content-id="a963439a-f4b6-457f-a9a1-0ca7d4456c8d" data-vars-headline="How Trump’s push to end Iran oil exports could backfire" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/iran-oil-sanctions-waivers-price-mike-pompeo-db296725-8f92-4d3a-9bfc-3b708d636a81.html" target="_self">would not renew any waivers</a> for countries to import Iranian oil after May 2.The big picture: Per Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, the goal is for Iran to reverse its foreign and domestic policies and <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="accede to 12 demands" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/pompeos-mission-impossible-on-iran-1526910087-881b0756-a68e-4c87-9fff-76df8dbd7237.html" data-vars-content-id="a963439a-f4b6-457f-a9a1-0ca7d4456c8d" data-vars-headline="How Trump’s push to end Iran oil exports could backfire" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/pompeos-mission-impossible-on-iran-1526910087-881b0756-a68e-4c87-9fff-76df8dbd7237.html" target="_self">accede to 12 demands</a> he set out in a speech last year. But the plan is certain to face pushback from importers of Iranian oil, raise prices for consumers and further erode the value of sanctions as a tool of diplomacy.

With its announcement Monday that it will exceed limits on the amount of low-enriched uranium allowed under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Iran is signaling the death of the landmark nuclear agreement reached with world powers in 2015.

Why it matters: Even if initial infringements are modest, the combination of rising tensions in the Persian Gulf, a near-total U.S. embargo on Iranian energy exports and Europe’s failure to operationalize a reliable means of trading with Iran is increasingly unstable.

Background: The Trump administration delivered the first major blow to the JCPOA when it withdrew unilaterally in May 2018; the coup de grace came this April with the announcement that it would permit no more Iranian oil exports.

Iran initially tried to exert strategic patience and wait out the administration. But it began signaling in April that it could not remain in compliance without receiving the economic benefits promised in return for verifiable curbs on its nuclear program.

The Iranian public has paid a steep price, watching the economy tank as the government takes greater risks to amass leverage.

What's next: After recent incidents in the Persian Gulf, the Iranians appear to have calculated that the Trump administration is too risk-averse to resort to military action and potentially touch off a regional conflagration.

President Trump has made it clear he does not want another war in the Middle East, however prepared some of his advisers may be for escalation.

Yet the U.S. remains isolated on Iranian issues. Despite evidence that Iran was behind attacks on two oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman last week and earlier incidents, many U.S. allies distrust the Trump administration and worry that accepting its conclusion could be seen as justifying a military response. (The U.K. and Saudi Arabia concur with the U.S. assessment.)

The bottom line: Longer-term nuclear restrictions will likely require the U.S. to negotiate a new agreement that provides more durable sanctions relief. In the meantime, tensions could keep rising, pushing up oil prices and further straining an already dysfunctional Middle East.

Without new talks, U.S.–Iran tensions continue to escalate

The further collapse of the nuclear deal is creating new risks.

spokesman for Iran's atomic energy agency in front of microphones at a press conference

Behrouz Kamalvandi, spokesperson for the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, at a press conference in July 2018. Photo: Fatemeh Bahrami/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

Nuclear program of Iran

With its <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="announcement" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/iran-nuclear-deal-uranium-stockpile-limit-ef9c6058-a3c7-4d6f-8d29-79d801a51fa8.html" data-vars-content-id="cba78350-e372-43ba-b616-d061f9cc9808" data-vars-headline="Without new talks, U.S.–Iran tensions continue to escalate" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/iran-nuclear-deal-uranium-stockpile-limit-ef9c6058-a3c7-4d6f-8d29-79d801a51fa8.html" target="_self">announcement</a> Monday that it will exceed limits on the amount of low-enriched uranium allowed under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Iran is signaling the death of the landmark nuclear agreement reached with world powers in 2015.Why it matters: Even if initial infringements are modest, the combination of rising tensions in the Persian Gulf, a near-total U.S. embargo on Iranian energy exports and <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Europe’s failure" data-vars-click-url="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/iransource/instex-more-about-politics-than-economics" data-vars-content-id="cba78350-e372-43ba-b616-d061f9cc9808" data-vars-headline="Without new talks, U.S.–Iran tensions continue to escalate" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/iransource/instex-more-about-politics-than-economics" target="_blank">Europe’s failure</a> to operationalize a reliable means of trading with Iran is increasingly unstable.

U.S. policy toward Iran hardened further in Poland this week, as U.S. officials demanded that Europe abandon the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran and suggested that Iranians rise up and overthrow their government.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Vice President Mike Pence at the Warsaw conference on the Middle East on Feb. 14. Photo: Xinhua/Jaap Arriens via Getty Images

The big picture: To Washington's frustration, both Iran and the rest of the world have stuck with the deal nearly a year after the Trump administration withdrew unilaterally. Even as its oil exports have more than halved since the U.S. restored sanctions in November, Iran has remained compliant with the deal's restrictions on its nuclear program.

Background: When it withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in May 2018, the Trump administration said the intention was to bring the Islamic Republic back to the negotiation table. U.S. officials said they sought a more comprehensive agreement that would cover Iran's regional interventions, ballistic missile program and imprisonment of dual nationals.

But the underlying motivation appeared to be a hope that Iran would also quit the JCPOA,  making it easier to convince the rest of the world to abandon it.

What's new: European countries, far from quitting, have come up with a payment mechanism intended to facilitate humanitarian trade with Iran at a time when Western banks are too terrified of U.S. sanctions to attempt even authorized business with Tehran.

Vice President Mike Pence inveighed against the so-called Special Purpose Vehicle, warning in Warsaw that it "will only strengthen Iran, weaken the EU and create still more distance between Europe and America."

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the Warsaw conference was intended to create a coalition for "war" against Iran — a comment that was later softened to "confrontation."

Yes, but: This pressure does not have broad international support. Although Israel and Iran's Arab rivals attended the gathering, Russia, China, Turkey and most European foreign ministers declined.

Where it stands: Iran is facing a bleak immediate future, with its economy expected to shrink 6% in 2019, on the back of falling oil exports, high inflation and unemployment. Even still, Iranians are not raring for another revolution, as Secretary Mike Pompeo has continued to suggest. They keenly recall how the last one turned out, and how chaotic a process regime change has been for their neighbors Afghanistan and Iraq.

The bottom line: Current U.S. policy will neither bring Iran back to the negotiating table nor kill the JCPOA.

U.S. pushes Iranian regime change in Warsaw, with mixed support

Russia, China, Turkey and much of Europe boycotted the conference.

U.S. policy toward Iran hardened further in Poland this week, as U.S. officials <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="demanded that Europe abandon the 2015 nuclear deal" data-vars-click-url="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/13/world/middleeast/warsaw-summit-pompeo.html" data-vars-content-id="f4473339-1605-430b-9511-3982aedf31e2" data-vars-headline="U.S. pushes Iranian regime change in Warsaw, with mixed support" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/13/world/middleeast/warsaw-summit-pompeo.html" target="_blank">demanded that Europe abandon the 2015 nuclear deal</a> with Iran and suggested that Iranians rise up and overthrow their government.

Barbara Slavin

Stories

U.S. sanctions on Iran are becoming an end, not a means

Without new talks, U.S.–Iran tensions continue to escalate

How Trump’s push to end Iran oil exports could backfire

U.S. pushes Iranian regime change in Warsaw, with mixed support

In Cairo speech, Pompeo tries to straighten out Trump's Mideast policy