National

The U.S. removed Turkey from the F-35 fighter jet program on Wednesday, escalating a months-long standoff over Turkey's purchase of Russian S-400 air defense systems.

Why it matters: Turkey is a strategic U.S. ally in the Eastern Mediterranean and Central Asia and an important partner in American relations with the Muslim world. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s decision to move forward with the S-400 purchase risks undermining NATO military coordination and exposing U.S. and broader NATO alliance capabilities to Russian intelligence.

Background: Turkey has seen several recent U.S. decisions as running counter to its security interests.

During the fight against ISIS, the Obama administration oversaw the ascendence in northeast Syria of the YPG — an iteration of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which Turkey views as an existential threat.

After the failed coup in July 2016, Turkey sought a more forceful response by Washington, including the potential extradition of exiled cleric Fethullah Gulen, the figurehead of the cult alleged to be behind the coup attempt.

Just last week, bipartisan leaders of the Senate Armed Services and Foreign Relations committees issued a statement supporting sanctions against Turkey for its drift toward Russia.

Between the lines: As Ankara has lost priority in the U.S.' Middle East strategy, Erdogan has sought to reconfigure Turkey's sphere of influence, including warmer diplomatic and economic relations with Moscow — a move some of the U.S.' Arab allies have made as well.

For Turkey, the S-400s are a slight at the U.S., a hedge against NATO security guarantees Erdogan considers weakened, and a symbol of Russia's success in outcompeting U.S influence.

Putin has been able to use the situation in Idlib, Syria, as leverage over Erdogan by holding back forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad from retaking the city. Turkey has taken in nearly 4 million Syrian refugees and does not want to see the humanitarian crisis on its southern border exacerbated.

Erdogan, meanwhile, is capitalizing on Turkey's role as the geographic buffer between Europe and Syrian refugees to threaten the U.S., should relations deteriorate further.

What to watch: Many of Turkey's grievances, including legitimate strategic neglect of Ankara by Washington, pre-date Trump's presidency. But the next chapter of the U.S.–Turkey alliance will be shaped by the unpredictable dynamics of strongman diplomacy between Trump and Erdogan.

Adham Sahloul is a foreign policy analyst and former researcher at the Atlantic Council's Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East.

U.S.–Turkey ties slide further amid advanced weapons impasse

Future relations may hinge on strongman diplomacy between Trump and Erdogan.

Unloading of a Russian military cargo plane in Ankara, Turkey

A Russian cargo aircraft delivering S-400 components to Murted Air Base in Ankara, Turkey. Photo: Rasit Aydogan/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

World

Turkey

Expert Voices

The U.S. <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="removed" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/turkey-f-35-russian-s-400-nato-us-trump-missiles-db426d4c-d096-45bd-941b-b560e7037dab.html" data-vars-content-id="0377ad4c-eae7-48e5-bdfc-78af98a6d081" data-vars-headline="U.S.–Turkey ties slide further amid advanced weapons impasse" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/turkey-f-35-russian-s-400-nato-us-trump-missiles-db426d4c-d096-45bd-941b-b560e7037dab.html" target="_self">removed</a> Turkey from the F-35 fighter jet program on Wednesday, escalating a months-long standoff over Turkey&#x27;s purchase of Russian S-400 air defense systems.Why it matters: Turkey is a strategic U.S. ally in the Eastern Mediterranean and Central Asia and an important partner in American relations with the Muslim world. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s decision to move forward with the S-400 purchase risks undermining NATO military coordination and exposing U.S. and broader NATO alliance capabilities to Russian intelligence.

President Biden has made the COVID-19 crisis and a post-Trump return to national unity and traditional democratic ideals his top priorities. From vaccinations to stimulus to schools, Biden is seeking bipartisan compromise while showing a willingness to use executive authority and bare Democratic majorities in the U.S. House and Senate to implement his policies. Republican leaders are navigating deep party divisions over if and how to move beyond former President Trump.

Politics & Policy

Even after the CIA concluded with high confidence that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) was responsible for the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, President Trump bailed him out in a statement on Tuesday.

Why it matters: There could not have been a better outcome for MBS and his father, King Salman, who have worked to prevent any punitive action against the royal family. They have now received an almost free pass from the U.S. for this and future acts of retribution against critics and journalists. Meanwhile, the Iranian regime will benefit from Saudi Arabia's loss in the American court of public opinion.

Background: The king and crown prince have pleaded ignorance, feigned condolences to the Khashoggi family, attempted to bribe Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to prevent further incrimination, stirred up domestic nationalism, and neutralized potential usurpers in the royal family.

What's new: President Trump's statement underscores his administration's transactional, zero-sum view of international relations. It frames Saudi Arabia as too important to abandon, Khashoggi's murder too puzzling to investigate, and American national security interests too narrow to include human rights. (It also contradicts reports by the CIA and Turkish intelligence, and even public claims by the Saudis.)

What's next: Congress can continue to press the Trump administration on the Khashoggi affair — the U.S. Treasury has so far sanctioned 17 implicated individuals — and other U.S.–Saudi issues, including the catastrophic Saudi–UAE war in Yemen.

The Global Magnitsky Act, which was triggered by the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Oct. 10, provides legal authority to Trump to sanction human rights violators and requires his administration to report within four months.

On Nov. 15, three Republican and three Democratic senators introduced the Saudi Arabia Accountability and Yemen Act, which requires sanctions be imposed within 30 days on anyone linked to Khashoggi's murder.

The bottom line: An era of blatant U.S. permissiveness over abuses of international law by the world's despots — a chapter that arguably began when President Obama abandoned his chemical weapons "red line" in Syria in 2013 — will inhibit dissent and free speech beyond the Middle East. Amid a global backslide on democratic norms, Trump has sent another message that the U.S. is not interested in championing liberal democratic norms.

Adham Sahloul is a masters candidate in international political economy at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy and a former researcher at the Atlantic Council's Rafik Hariri Center.

After Trump statement, it falls to Congress to hold Saudis accountable

He has given MBS a free pass instead of upholding human rights.

President Trump and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman seated in the Oval Office

President Trump and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in the Oval Office on March 20. Photo: Mandel Ngan/AFP/Getty Images

Jamal Khashoggi

Politics

Even after the CIA concluded with <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="high confidence" data-vars-click-url="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/16/us/politics/cia-saudi-crown-prince-khashoggi.html" data-vars-content-id="67ab7fe7-62cd-4385-9706-836abf853475" data-vars-headline="After Trump statement, it falls to Congress to hold Saudis accountable" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/16/us/politics/cia-saudi-crown-prince-khashoggi.html" target="_blank">high confidence</a> that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) was responsible for the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, President Trump bailed him out in a <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="statement" data-vars-click-url="https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1064940956582141955" data-vars-content-id="67ab7fe7-62cd-4385-9706-836abf853475" data-vars-headline="After Trump statement, it falls to Congress to hold Saudis accountable" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1064940956582141955" target="_blank">statement</a> on Tuesday.Why it matters: There could not have been a better outcome for MBS and his father, King Salman, who have worked to prevent any punitive action against the royal family. They have now received an almost free pass from the U.S. for this and future acts of retribution against critics and journalists. Meanwhile, the Iranian regime will benefit from Saudi Arabia&#x27;s loss in the American court of public opinion.

The turmoil let loose in Syria this week stems in part from the absence of a clear U.S. strategy to counter terrorism and negotiate a diplomatic solution to the country's bloody civil war.

The big picture: President Trump’s hamfisted statesmanship and disregard for national security expertise notwithstanding, America's Syria policy from the Obama administration onward has instilled doubts among Middle Eastern and European allies, leading even NATO member Turkey to decisively cross the U.S.

What's happening: The U.S. and Turkey announced on Thursday a temporary cessation of hostilities that will allow Turkey to establish a “safe zone” 30 kilometers (18.6 miles) into northern Syria as long as Syrian Kurdish fighters retreat.

The agreement superficially addresses Turkey’s security concerns and assuages the immediate humanitarian crisis. But more profoundly, it represents a coup for Russia and its lackey in Damascus, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

For Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Russia has proved a better guarantor of Turkey's security than the U.S. and now controls the fate of 3 million inhabitants of Idlib in northwest Syria.

Betrayed by President Trump, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have rushed into Vladimir Putin's and Assad's arms, leaving the U.S. even more on the outside looking in.

Background: Ankara and Washington have been at odds since Obama decided to arm, train and rebrand the Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) militia. The YPG is aligned with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which the U.S. and the EU have designated as a terrorist group.

This was the original sin that prompted Turkey's military divergence from the U.S., though it was later compounded by the weak U.S. response to the Assad regime’s crackdown, which drove the refugee crisis and created fertile ground for violent extremism.

Trump had continued this policy while trying to smooth Turkey-SDF relations through joint U.S.-Turkey patrols in cities liberated from ISIS and efforts to reorient the SDF away from its YPG core.

The bottom line: Trump’s Syria decision has exacerbated the humanitarian and strategic failures of an eight-year “lead from behind” policy that had already left the U.S. little leverage. The fallout will now hit hardest the Syrian civilians in territory back under Assad's control.

Years of muddled U.S. strategy worsened fallout in Syria

U.S.–Turkey tensions dating to the Obama administration have not helped matters.

The Syrian town of Ras al-Ain during the Turkish offensive, Oct. 17. Photo: Ozan Kose/AFP via Getty Images

Syria

The turmoil let loose in Syria this week stems in part from the absence of a clear U.S. strategy to counter terrorism and negotiate a diplomatic solution to the country&#x27;s bloody civil war.The big picture: President Trump’s hamfisted statesmanship and disregard for national security expertise notwithstanding, America&#x27;s Syria policy from the Obama administration onward has instilled doubts among Middle Eastern and European allies, leading even NATO member Turkey to decisively cross the U.S.

A renewed onslaught by the Syrian and Russian governments against opposition-held areas of Idlib reflects both the conflict's ongoing toll and the loss of American influence over events on the ground.

The big picture: The State Department condemned this week's attacks, which have killed at least 36 civilians, and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo called for "an immediate ceasefire" and "return to the political process." Since April, airstrikes across Syria's northwest attributed to Russia and forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad have killed at least 606 civilians, including 157 children, and displaced up to 300,000 people.

Where it stands: Now home to nearly 3 million people, many of them displaced, Idlib has become the world's largest refugee enclave.

It's 1 of 4 de-escalation zones (DEZs) brokered by Turkey, Russia and Iran during May 2017 talks in Astana, Kazakhstan, which effectively supplanted the U.S.–led Geneva peace process. The Trump administration's withdrawal of troops from areas in northern Syria liberated from the Islamic State has further reduced American leverage.

While the DEZs "froze" the frontlines of conflict, the regime and Russia have strategically used the diplomatic cover to coerce the remaining opposition-held DEZs in central and southern Syria to surrender.

Russia's involvement in the latest Idlib campaign signals its willingness to test the resolve of both the U.S. and Turkey, which has struggled under the humanitarian spillover across its southern border.

What to watch: The Trump administration may be pressed to respond with more than a tweet from Secretary Pompeo, especially if Assad's regime continues its most egregious tactics, such as deploying chemical and incendiary weapons and destroying hospitals in order to drive residents and militants alike out of opposition-held neighborhoods.

Idlib airstrikes by Russia and Assad test U.S. resolve in Syria

The State Department condemned this week's attacks, which killed at least 36 civilians.

rubble of a building hit by an airstrike, with people standing in the background

Buildings destroyed by a reported regime airstrike on the town of Ariha, in the south of Syria's Idlib province, on July 24. Photo: Omar Haj Kadour/AFP/Getty Images

Syrian Civil War

A renewed onslaught by the Syrian and Russian governments against opposition-held areas of Idlib reflects both the conflict&#x27;s ongoing toll and the loss of American influence over events on the ground.The big picture: The State Department <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="condemned" data-vars-click-url="https://twitter.com/statedeptspox/status/1153759815770017798?s=20" data-vars-content-id="7db30b3b-e272-4fee-a15d-158f34ff2ea7" data-vars-headline="Idlib airstrikes by Russia and Assad test U.S. resolve in Syria" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://twitter.com/statedeptspox/status/1153759815770017798?s=20" target="_blank">condemned</a> this week&#x27;s attacks, which have killed at least <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="36 civilians" data-vars-click-url="https://news.yahoo.com/more-50-syrian-civilians-killed-075110041.html" data-vars-content-id="7db30b3b-e272-4fee-a15d-158f34ff2ea7" data-vars-headline="Idlib airstrikes by Russia and Assad test U.S. resolve in Syria" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://news.yahoo.com/more-50-syrian-civilians-killed-075110041.html" target="_blank">36 civilians</a>, and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="called for" data-vars-click-url="https://twitter.com/SecPompeo/status/1153759985286950912?s=20" data-vars-content-id="7db30b3b-e272-4fee-a15d-158f34ff2ea7" data-vars-headline="Idlib airstrikes by Russia and Assad test U.S. resolve in Syria" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://twitter.com/SecPompeo/status/1153759985286950912?s=20" target="_blank">called for</a> &quot;an immediate ceasefire&quot; and &quot;return to the political process.&quot; Since April, <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="airstrikes" data-vars-click-url="http://sn4hr.org/wp-content/pdf/english/Idlib_and_surrounding_areas_have_been_under_indiscriminate_shelling_for_11_weeks_and_the_Security_Council_is_not_moving_en.pdf" data-vars-content-id="7db30b3b-e272-4fee-a15d-158f34ff2ea7" data-vars-headline="Idlib airstrikes by Russia and Assad test U.S. resolve in Syria" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="http://sn4hr.org/wp-content/pdf/english/Idlib_and_surrounding_areas_have_been_under_indiscriminate_shelling_for_11_weeks_and_the_Security_Council_is_not_moving_en.pdf" target="_blank">airstrikes</a> across Syria&#x27;s northwest attributed to Russia and forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad have killed at least 606 civilians, including 157 children, and displaced up to <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="300,000 people" data-vars-click-url="https://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-republic/idps-displaced-northern-syria-spikes-over-300k-229-dead" data-vars-content-id="7db30b3b-e272-4fee-a15d-158f34ff2ea7" data-vars-headline="Idlib airstrikes by Russia and Assad test U.S. resolve in Syria" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-republic/idps-displaced-northern-syria-spikes-over-300k-229-dead" target="_blank">300,000 people</a>.

China is becoming the most formidable rival America has faced, and the risk of confrontation with Russia, North Korea or Iran still looms. Authoritarians are rising, the chaotic Afghanistan exit revealed the limits of U.S. power, and the pandemic, climate change and other critical challenges continue to pose grave threats.

The provisional agreement the U.S. and Turkey announced last week regarding security in northern Syria marks a positive step for the two NATO allies, whose priorities in the Syrian conflict have often diverged.

Why it matters: The proposed safe zone and guarantees to pull the U.S.–backed, Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces could help assuage Turkish concerns about a Kurdish insurgency while preserving the counter-ISIS campaign and critical stabilization efforts in northeastern Syria.

How it works: The deal would create a joint U.S.-Turkey military operations center in southern Turkey to potentially establish a buffer zone up to 18 miles into northern Syria, which could also facilitate the return of Syrian refugees.

The catch: The Syrian Democratic Forces sees Turkey and Turkish-backed Syrian rebels as existential threats and in the past year has made overtures to Russia and the Syrian government.

Without a clear and sustained deconfliction mechanism, Turkish incursions to preserve its own security interests could spark further clashes between two U.S. partners, opening a new front in the war.

Background: Turkey has long expressed national security concerns over the predominance of Kurdish elements in the SDF, which were trained by the U.S. to counter the Islamic State.

These troops are aligned with the Kurdistan Workers' Party insurgency that Turkey and its allies — including the U.S. — consider a terrorist group.

They aspire to create a Kurdish state, which would be unacceptable to Turkey as well as the parties to the Syrian conflict.

Between the lines: The population of more than 3.6 million Syria refugees hosted in Turkey — once embraced as "guests" by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his ruling Justice and Development Party — have been tossed under the bus as the party's popular support has eroded.

Human rights groups have alleged forced deportations from Istanbul and reported on plans to relocate nearly 700,000 refugees into Turkish-controlled areas in Syria's north.

Those moves would form a demographic buffer between Turkey and Syrian Kurds, while appealing to widespread anti-refugee and anti-Kurdish sentiment.

What to watch: Without restraint by Turkey and long-term military assurances by the U.S., the SDF could be pushed to join the Russia-Syria-Iran axis or to seek reintegration with Syria, perhaps with a degree of Kurdish autonomy.

While Turkey’s brinkmanship may have paid off in securing U.S. support to smooth over tensions, northern Syria will continue to challenge a more circumscribed U.S. Middle East policy.

Safe zone in northern Syria depends on U.S.-Turkey balancing act

There remains a risk of clashes between Turkey and Kurdish forces.

soldiers on foot patrolling a town, with tanks in the background

U.S. and SDF forces on patrol in Al-Darbasiyah, in northeastern Syria. Photo: Delil Souleiman/AFP/Getty Images

The <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="provisional agreement" data-vars-click-url="https://tr.usembassy.gov/statement-on-joint-military-talks-regarding-syria/" data-vars-content-id="ded62e0a-d759-464b-a1e4-80316eb25e0b" data-vars-headline="Safe zone in northern Syria depends on U.S.-Turkey balancing act" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://tr.usembassy.gov/statement-on-joint-military-talks-regarding-syria/" target="_blank">provisional agreement</a> the U.S. and Turkey announced last week regarding security in northern Syria marks a positive step for the two NATO allies, whose priorities in the Syrian conflict have often diverged.Why it matters: The proposed safe zone and guarantees to pull the U.S.–backed, Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces could help assuage Turkish concerns about a Kurdish insurgency while preserving the counter-ISIS campaign and critical stabilization efforts in northeastern Syria.

Sections

Axios Local

Axios gets you smarter, faster with news & information that matters.

About

Subscribe

Adham Sahloul

Stories

Years of muddled U.S. strategy worsened fallout in Syria

Safe zone in northern Syria depends on U.S.-Turkey balancing act

Idlib airstrikes by Russia and Assad test U.S. resolve in Syria

U.S.–Turkey ties slide further amid advanced weapons impasse

After Trump statement, it falls to Congress to hold Saudis accountable