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Three independent Russian journalists were murdered on July 31 in the Central African Republic (CAR) while filming a documentary on the Wagner Group, the mysterious Kremlin-linked military contractor operating in that country. The circumstances of their deaths are still unknown, but the incident follows the mysterious death of another Russian journalist who investigated the organization.

The big picture: With deployments in Ukraine, Syria and Sudan in addition to CAR, the Wagner Group has become an active, although still unofficial, component of Russia’s foreign policy and military toolkit at a time when the Kremlin is expanding its reach across Africa.

The Wagner Group gained notoriety in February after hundreds of its fighters were killed in a failed attack on U.S. forces in Syria, although the Russian government then denied any connection to the group. But Russia has clearly been increasing its African presence, providing debt relief, weapons sales and military assistance.

Russia is by far Africa’s largest arms supplier, accounting for about 35% of the continent’s weapons imports. Russian companies often get lucrative access to explore for and extract oil, gas and other natural resources in return.

In December 2017, Russia secured a United Nations exemption to the CAR arms embargo allowing it to supply light weapons to its military struggling to contain the sectarian violence that has ravaged the country since 2014. The exemption came two months after Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov met with CAR President Touadéra to strengthen ties, resulting in infrastructure contracts and mining exploration concessions.

Moscow sent the arms in early 2018, along with 175 military and civilian trainers. The Wagner Group was part of that deployment, and it also reportedly provides protection for the country’s mines and government facilities. 

The bottom line: The Wagner Group’s activity in CAR reveals how Russia has grown its influence in Africa, even in regions where Western countries traditionally have wielded considerable influence. As Russia rebuild its web of African relationships, the shadowy nature of Wagner’s mercenary network provides Moscow deniability should its military activities there go awry.

Paul Stronski is a senior fellow in the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Foundation for International Peace.

Journalists killed in Central African Republic amid growing Russian presence

Russia appears to be trying to rebuild its Soviet-era web of African relationships.

Flowers brought to the Central House of Journalists in memory of three Russian journalists killed in the Central African Republic.

Flowers brought to the Central House of Journalists in Moscow, on July 31, 2018, in memory of three Russian journalists killed in the Central African Republic. Photo: Sergei Savostyanov/TASS via Getty Images

World

Russia

Expert Voices

Three independent Russian journalists were murdered on July 31 in the Central African Republic (CAR) while filming a documentary on the Wagner Group, the mysterious <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Kremlin-linked" data-vars-click-url="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2018/02/23/what-we-know-about-the-shadowy-russian-mercenary-firm-behind-the-attack-on-u-s-troops-in-syria/?utm_term=.f126542cc892" data-vars-content-id="2277243e-282f-4636-93ed-d03faffd47ea" data-vars-headline="Journalists killed in Central African Republic amid growing Russian presence" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2018/02/23/what-we-know-about-the-shadowy-russian-mercenary-firm-behind-the-attack-on-u-s-troops-in-syria/?utm_term=.f126542cc892" target="_blank">Kremlin-linked</a> military contractor operating in that country. The circumstances of their deaths are still unknown, but the incident follows the mysterious death of another Russian journalist who investigated the organization.The big picture: With <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="deployments in Ukraine, Syria and Sudan" data-vars-click-url="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-wagner-group-mercenaries-where-operate-2018-4" data-vars-content-id="2277243e-282f-4636-93ed-d03faffd47ea" data-vars-headline="Journalists killed in Central African Republic amid growing Russian presence" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-wagner-group-mercenaries-where-operate-2018-4" target="_blank">deployments in Ukraine, Syria and Sudan</a> in addition to CAR, the Wagner Group has become an active, although still unofficial, component of Russia’s foreign policy and military toolkit at a time when the Kremlin is expanding its reach across Africa.

China is becoming the most formidable rival America has faced, and the risk of confrontation with Russia, North Korea or Iran still looms. Authoritarians are rising, the chaotic Afghanistan exit revealed the limits of U.S. power, and the pandemic, climate change and other critical challenges continue to pose grave threats.

The pomp and circumstance of this week's Sochi summit, where President Vladimir Putin hosted 43 senior African leaders, furthers a narrative Russia is crafting about its return to the continent.

The big picture: Putin's main goal was to rattle the U.S. and Europe, which have taken Russia’s decades-long absence from Africa for granted. Despite his hype, however, cash-strapped Russia’s reach on the continent is still a far cry from what China, the West and many lesser powers can muster when it comes to financing, trade, investment and even influence.

Context: Opportunism drives the foreign policy Russia is pursuing in Africa today — a departure from the ideological approach of the USSR, which invested heavily in military and security ties and economic development to create client regimes among revolutionary and post-colonial leaders.

Despite the Trump administration’s rhetorical focus on “great power competition,” the U.S. and its allies have disengaged from Africa, creating vacuums Moscow can exploit.

Yet Russia's influence is not expanding across the board. Its deepest inroads are in highly troubled countries, such as the Central African Republic, or pariah states such as Sudan and Zimbabwe that are often under UN sanctions.

Between the lines: During the 2000s, the Kremlin envisioned Africa as part of a “multipolar world” that would not be led by Washington.

Africa’s heavy representation in the UN — it accounts for more than 25% of countries in the UN General Assembly — made it an important target.

Since 2014, nimble Russian diplomacy and old-fashioned vote-buying has strengthened African support for Moscow’s stances on Crimea, Syria and Libya.

Yes, but: Russia has little economic penetration on the continent.

In 2017, trade between Russia and sub-Saharan Africa was $3 billion, well behind China's $56 billion and the U.S.' $27 billion. The most significant mineral and energy opportunities it's pursuing have already been examined or discarded by other players.

Limited resources and risk appetite have left Russia falling back on tools like sending Kremlin-connected mercenaries to conflict zones or offering consulting services to autocratic regimes on election manipulation.

What to watch: No ground-breaking trade, investment or security announcements came out of the summit, suggesting the gathering was more symbolic than substantive. But if Moscow expands its Africa policy after the summit and under the West's inattentive watch, it could be a far greater worry for the West.

Paul Stronski is a senior fellow in the Carnegie Endowment’s Russia and Eurasia Program.

Putin hosts African leaders to rile West, but with little to offer them

Russia's ties to the continent are a far cry from those of the U.S. and China.

Putin and African leaders gathered and waving

Putin and African leaders at the summit in Sochi, Russia. Photo: Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Images

The pomp and circumstance of this week&#x27;s Sochi summit, where President Vladimir Putin hosted 43 senior African leaders, furthers a narrative Russia is crafting about its return to the continent.The big picture: Putin&#x27;s main goal was to rattle the U.S. and Europe, which have taken Russia’s decades-long absence from Africa for granted. Despite his hype, however, cash-strapped Russia’s reach on the continent is still a far cry from what China, the West and many lesser powers can muster when it comes to financing, trade, investment and even influence.

At President Trump’s press conference with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday, he assigned blame to the U.S. and complained about Robert Mueller's “witch hunt,” showing indifference to Russia’s meddling in both Ukraine and the 2016 U.S. election. His performance could scarcely have been more favorable to Putin or more threatening to the security of American democracy.

Why it matters: The press conference will create a lasting disconnect between the president and his national security team. It will now be much harder to continue assuring U.S. allies that they can ignore what Trump says.

Last week’s indictment of 12 Russian intelligence officers amplified what was already widely known: In 2016, Russian intelligence hacked into private U.S. email accounts and disseminated stolen information to damage Hillary Clinton’s campaign and tip the scales in Trump’s favor.

With the indictments weighing heavily on the summit, Trump, standing next to Putin, continued to deflect, deny and dismiss the findings of his own country’s intelligence community, at times citing a wandering list of grievances about Clinton and U.S. law enforcement.

Trump went so far as to contradict his own Director of National Intelligence, Dan Coats, giving equal weight to Coats’ assessment of Russian meddling and Putin’s denial of it. Trump's advisers, including U.S. Ambassador to Russia Jon Huntsman, appeared stunned by his comments.

The bottom line: The conference stands out as a uniquely submissive moment in the country’s recent history. It also fully fits Trump’s diplomatic worldview: He belittled and insulted longstanding friends and allies last week, and today appeased a major adversary — all of which redounds to Putin's benefit.

Trump's appeasement of Putin undermines U.S. diplomatic posture

U.S. Ambassador to Russia Jon Huntsman appeared stunned by his comments.

President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin during a joint press conference after their summit on July 16, 2018, in Helsinki, Finland.

President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Helsinki on July 16, 2018. Photo: Chris McGrath via Getty Images

Trump-Putin summit

Politics

At President Trump’s press conference with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday, he assigned blame to the U.S. and complained about Robert Mueller&#x27;s “witch hunt,” showing indifference to Russia’s meddling in both Ukraine and the 2016 U.S. election. His performance could scarcely have been more favorable to Putin or more threatening to the security of American democracy.Why it matters: The press conference will create a lasting disconnect between the president and his national security team. It will now be much harder to continue assuring U.S. allies that they can ignore what Trump says.

President Biden has made the COVID-19 crisis and a post-Trump return to national unity and traditional democratic ideals his top priorities. From vaccinations to stimulus to schools, Biden is seeking bipartisan compromise while showing a willingness to use executive authority and bare Democratic majorities in the U.S. House and Senate to implement his policies. Republican leaders are navigating deep party divisions over if and how to move beyond former President Trump.

Politics & Policy

Next week's Helsinki summit poses the risk that President Trump could make a rash offer to Vladimir Putin in an attempt to improve U.S.–Russian relations. It's possible he might recognize Moscow’s annexation of Crimea, assent to Syrian President Assad’s continued rule or waver on America’s commitment to NATO.

The big picture: As much as Trump may want to turn the page with Putin, his recent call for a one-on-one meeting without aides is risky. Putin is a shrewd negotiator. A conciliatory approach with Russia has not worked out for the past three American presidents or a long list of European leaders, and it likely won't for Trump either. 

Putin has been playing leaders for years:

German Chancellor Angela Merkel spearheaded the Minsk agreement in 2015 to end the Ukraine war, which Russia never seriously implemented.

Former French President Nicolas Sarkozy brokered the end to the Russian–Georgian war in 2008. Putin reportedly signed off  on the ceasefire, but Russia flouted it nonetheless.

Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama all thought maintaining a personal rapport with their Russian counterpart would advance U.S. interests. In most cases, it didn't. (Clinton's attempt to cultivate Russia ended in bitterness over the Kosovo war, while Bush's own infamous overtures preceded Russia's invasion of Georgia.)

Trump wants splashy deliverables to show he can go toe-to-toe with Putin on the global stage. But instead of agreeing to whatever Putin wants on Ukraine or Syria for the sake of a deal, Trump should articulate a vision for how his administration plans to secure U.S. interests vis-à-vis Russia. Reviving arms-control discussions or agreeing to increase educational, cultural and scientific exchanges would be good places to start. Both would help rebuild trust and lay the groundwork for future improvements in relations.

The bottom line: Trump boasts of not “preparing very much” for high-stakes diplomacy — an approach that has not secured results with North Korea's denuclearization. To avoid getting played again, he should approach the Helsinki summit with concrete objectives to avoid improvising a costly deal.

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For Putin, Helsinki summit carries economic upside but political risk

History shows why Trump needs clear objectives for Putin summit

A conciliatory approach has not worked out for past presidents.

President Donald Trump speaks besides U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo during a news conference at the 2018 NATO Summit.

President Trump speaks besides Secretary of State Pompeo during a news conference at the 2018 NATO Summit on July 12, 2018, in Brussels. He will go to Helsinki next week. Photo: Jasper Juinen via Getty Images

Paul Stronski

Stories

Putin hosts African leaders to rile West, but with little to offer them

Journalists killed in Central African Republic amid growing Russian presence

Trump's appeasement of Putin undermines U.S. diplomatic posture

History shows why Trump needs clear objectives for Putin summit