Where it stands: Fernández's coalition of Peronists and independent factions will have a majority in the Senate. It will be either the largest or second-largest force in the lower House of Congress, depending on the opposition's coalition.

• With Argentina’s economy experiencing a significant downturn, Fernández faces a tough road ahead. He must satisfy domestic demands for renewed growth and social spending, meet the spending targets in the $57 billion IMF loan agreement, and honor debts to bondholders.
• The political urgency of fiscal policies that benefit Fernández's core constituency may edge out payments to some of the country's creditors.

Between the lines: Fernández has carved out a reputation as a pragmatic negotiator. His skills will be tested as he sets out to define his authority and divide Cabinet posts in a way that satisfies Kirchner, who remains a key power broker in the Peronist coalition and commands strong support from the party's left-wing hardliners.

• In light of her polarizing legacy, Kirchner played a low-profile role on the campaign trail to avoid muddling Fernández's message of change. But she now seems likely to expand her presence.
• As vice president of the executive branch and president of the Senate, Kirchner will vacate her Senate seat but retain congressional immunity from any charges that emerge from the ongoing corruption investigations she faces.

What to watch: Fernández may make notable departures from Macri's foreign policy. His first foreign trip will reportedly take him to Mexico, where the Andrés Manuel López Obrador administration has taken a neutral, non-interventionist approach to the Venezuela crisis while working with the Trump administration on matters of bilateral strategic interest.

• A realignment away from an activist position on Venezuela, however, could hamper U.S.-Argentina relations as well as efforts by the regional Lima Group to apply collective pressure on Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

Michael McCarthy is a research fellow at American University’s CLALS, an adjunct professor at George Washington University's Elliott School for International Affairs, and the founder and CEO of Caracas Wire.

Where it stands: In a reversal from preliminary results announced on election night, with nearly 97% reporting, the electoral tribunal reported that Morales won 46.49% of the vote and Mesa won 37.01%.

• Receiving over 40% of the vote, while also leading the closest opponent by more than a 10% margin, would allow Morales to avoid a runoff.
• Mesa has rejected the results and called for Bolivians to take to the streets in protest. The Organization of American States and the European Union have called for an audit and the government has said it endorses a recount.
• Isolated incidents of violence have broken out and demonstrations by supporters of both sides look set to continue, raising the risk of clashes.

Between the lines: Morales’s star was already fading, in the wake of corruption scandals, leadership fatigue and economic anxiety.

• From 2006 to 2013, when mineral-rich Bolivia benefitted from the global commodities boom, Morales commanded 60% majorities at the polls and was seen as a regional icon of both indigenous political identity and responsible leftwing nationalism, singularly capable of balancing social transformation among the poor with growth for the business sector.
• With those free-spending days in past, Bolivia still grows 3%–4% a year, faster than most of its neighbors. But without any major natural gas discoveries of late, Morales faces tough economic decisions and has fewer options to prop up the public spending that benefits his rural base.

What to watch: Morales has pledged to respect the result, while accusing the opposition of mounting a coup. If he prevails, he could still end up with a smaller majority in the legislature and may feel pressed to tighten his grip on power in order to enact his agenda.

Michael McCarthy is a research fellow at American University’s CLALS, an adjunct professor at George Washington University's Elliott School for International Affairs, and the founder and CEO of Caracas Wire.

Context: Venezuela has generally not been a bargaining chip in broader geopolitical games, apart from U.S. lines drawn around military meddling in the region by non-hemispheric powers, but more great power politics are now in play.

• While it may be rational for China and Russia to back down and realize the economic benefits of the transition in Venezuela sought by the U.S., national pride is also at stake.
• If Washington cannot convince China and Russia through arguments around economic self-interest, gaining traction with them becomes much harder.

Between the lines: Trump faces a steep challenge, but it's not all downside for him.

• Even if greater economic pressure fails to drive out Maduro, going all-in could have the convenient side benefit of strengthening his 2020 reelection chances in Florida, where, along with Cuban-Americans, Venezuelan-Americans are key swing voters.
• Supposing Maduro remains in power, Temporary Protected Status or its equivalent for U.S.–based Venezuelan migrants would be a valuable consolation prize to deliver in an election year.

What to watch: Maduro, always spoiling for a fight with the White House, will likely use the embargo to further scapegoat the U.S. for Venezuela's economic collapse.

• Maduro's next counter-moves could involve insisting his delegation is still committed to Norway-sponsored mediation with Guaidó while laying the groundwork for condemnation of harsh American sanctions at the UN.
• Trump could face a choice to escalate his embargo to a full blockade if the new economic pressure does not tilt support toward Guaidó.
• Reluctant to enter the fray, China and Russia may still be drawn in should the U.S. turn to military might to enforce its embargo — and it's unclear what lengths they would go to in defense of Maduro.

Michael McCarthy is a research fellow at American University’s CLALS, an adjunct professor at George Washington University's Elliott School for International Affairs, and the founder and CEO of Caracas Wire.