Where it stands: In both 2016 and 2017, the opposition staged confrontational demonstrations to raise the costs of repression. The protests drew international attention to human rights abuses but failed to worsen regime divisions, sending the effort's leaders back to options at the negotiating table and the ballot box.

• After earlier coercive diplomacy failed to produce a military uprising, the Trump administration is doubling down on its efforts to drive regime change. Increased sanctions pressure could foment greater divisions within the regime, while the refusal to take military options off the table may provide Guaidó a much-needed security umbrella.

What's next: It seems likely that Guaidó will push his Operation Freedom campaign to the brink. And Maduro will probably stick around to push back, despite Secretary Pompeo’s claim that he'd nearly fled into exile. Another clash could come as early as today's May Day demonstrations.

What to watch: The main open questions are what cards Guaidó has left in his hand, how many more rounds of coup poker can be played before one side folds, and how the U.S. and others respond.

• It's still not clear that the U.S. alone can tip the scales. Working with the regional Lima Group will be key, but even more valuable would be finding a way to meet the prices that Beijing, Havana, and Moscow are asking to reevaluate their support for Maduro.

Michael McCarthy is a research fellow at American University’s CLALS, an adjunct professor at George Washington University's Elliott School for International Affairs, and the founder and CEO of Caracas Wire.

Details: Without evidence, Maduro blamed the power outage on the U.S., as the Chavista regime has since rolling blackouts began in 2009. The high command of the military, as well as the party hierarchy, have offered support, but Maduro has yet to convene his cabinet and top political lieutenants in public.

The opposition-controlled National Assembly declared a “state of alarm” and drew attention to Maduro’s subsidized oil sales to Cuba to underscore the regime’s criminal neglect of basic goods and services.

• Juan Guaidó, named interim president by the Assembly, doubled down on his plan to oust Maduro, calling for street demonstrations and international humanitarian aid. That strategy has yet to break the regime, raising questions about whether the resistance could develop into an armed insurrection.

What to watch: Venezuelans will take the next steps, but if clashes continue yielding a stalemate, both sides may soon turn to their international backers for renewed support.

• President Trump’s commitment to regime change in Venezuela seems stronger than ever, and secondary sanctions to expand the scope of unilateral oil sanctions are being prepared. Support for the Guaidó government is having material impact, with a new board appointed at Venezuela-owned CITGO — a step that sets up a key legal battle over republic assets.
• For now, the U.S. strategy has stiffened China and Russia’s resistance, with the countries vetoing U.S.–proposed resolutions at the UN Security Council, and expressing willingness to provide Maduro a degree of financial flexibility.
• Venezuela’s neighbors have continued to work via the Lima Group, heightening the rhetoric about the security implications of the crisis but thus far rejecting military intervention.

Michael McCarthy is a research fellow at American University’s CLALS, an adjunct professor at George Washington University's Elliott School for International Affairs, and the founder and CEO of Caracas Wire.

The big picture: The international community is not united. Since Vice President Pence declared that “Maduro must go,” it's been unclear whether the Trump administration remains open to a compromise that would keep the regime in place. President Trump recently floated military action, and with harsh new sanctions on Maduro’s state oil company, his administration has doubled down on economic coercion.

• Meanwhile, key stakeholders in Latin America and Europe, including EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Federica Mogherini, will launch a Diplomatic Contact Group initiative in Montevideo on Thursday.

Where it stands: Maduro will look to secure material support from China and Russia, which have bankrolled his government but have grown increasingly anxious about his mismanagement of the economy.

• Maduro has also resumed formal contact with Vatican representatives to explore whether the Church could facilitate new talks, as it has in the past. The Vatican has so far remained neutral.

What to watch: The next potential turning point could arise when the U.S. government looks to empower Guaidó via the delivery of humanitarian assistance, an offer Maduro flatly rejected. The donations will reportedly be delivered over the Colombia–Venezuela border. If Maduro lets the aid come in, he risks looking weak — giving Guaidó a victory that could further embolden the opposition — but avoids directly provoking the Trump administration.

Michael McCarthy is a research fellow at American University’s CLALS, an adjunct professor at George Washington University's Elliott School for International Affairs, and the founder and CEO of Caracas Wire.