Background: Maduro deepened a crisis created by his predecessor, the Chavista movement’s founding father Hugo Chávez, and his authoritarian rule has been defined by volatility. Former Chávez government ministers have publicly questioned Maduro’s ability to pull Venezuela out of the crisis, and the expanding chorus of critics has raised questions about whether discontent with record-level hyperinflation and deepening social misery could lead to a palace coup scenario.

The inaugural ceremony also drew low levels of attendance from foreign governments. Colombia, Ecuador, Portugal, and Spain, which maintained working relations with Caracas during the preceding government, chose not to send representation. Maduro’s left-wing allies still participated, while his key commercial partners China, Russia, and Turkey sent second-tier delegations.

What to watch: Trump may be reluctant to get embroiled in Venezuela’s crisis, but his administration’s commitment to righting the regional balance of power in Washington’s favor might spur him to search for opportunities to initiate regime change in Venezuela.

Michael McCarthy is a research fellow at American University’s CLALS, an adjunct professor at George Washington University's Elliott School for International Affairs, and the founder and CEO of Caracas Wire.

Background: Russian-Venezuelan operational flights also took place in 2008 and 2013, but the stakes are higher in light of the Trump administration’s rhetoric about a Venezuela-led Troika of Tyranny in Latin America and the sanctioning of Maduro's government.

• The operation also gave Maduro an important consolation prize after he failed to secure new financial investments on a recent trip to Moscow.

Between the lines: Putin's assertive symbolic gesture pushes back against Washington and creates uncertainty about the limits of Moscow’s action on behalf of a U.S. adversary.

• Secretary of State Pompeo, who has defended the Monroe Doctrine of non-Western interference in the Americas, called the operation an example of “two corrupt governments squandering public funds.” The war of words continued but did not escalate after the White House received clarification that the bombers would not participate in joint exercises or stay in the country longer than a week.
• The U.S.–Russia spat follows sparring between the U.S. and China over the legitimacy of efforts to influence development in Latin America — a quarrel that centered on Venezuela.

Where it stands: Recent yet unconfirmed media reports of Russian interest in hosting its bombers at an airfield on Venezuela’s La Orchila island have created new suspicions about the Kremlin’s intentions to establish a more permanent military presence in the Caribbean.

The bottom line: Neither Moscow nor Beijing have long-term hopes that Maduro can provide stability or prosperity, though his hold on power suggests their bets are safe for now.

Michael McCarthy is a research fellow at American University’s CLALS, an adjunct professor at George Washington University's Elliott School for International Affairs, and the founder and CEO of Caracas Wire.

Under a banner of radical right-wing reform that raised investors’ expectations, Bolsonaro’s insurgent candidacy became a social phenomenon. The 63-year-old former army captain and longtime congressman exploited popular social media platforms with fake news, thrived on misogynistic and homophobic rhetoric, promised a purge of the left and embodied a no-holds-barred approach to the country’s spiraling criminal violence.

What's next: Effective governance will require transitioning from the politics of redemption to the politics of pragmatism. Though his Social Liberal Party performed better than expected, winning 52 seats in the 513-member lower house of Congress, Bolsonaro will need a larger coalition to pass legislation.

While Bolsonaro himself has equivocated about his position on old government pension programs, his market-friendly economics adviser has promised comprehensive pension reform. It remains to be seen where exactly the requisite votes will come from. Meanwhile, a proposal to privatize state electricity and energy companies has reportedly been shelved.

Public security is the campaign issue on which Bolsonaro may feel he most needs to deliver immediate action. With Brazil’s homicide rate climbing to a record high in 2017, a substantial portion of the public has grown weary and fearful. Bolsonaro’s campaign has made dangerous albeit vague promises to adopt a shoot-first approach to gang violence.

Why it matters: Brazil’s hard turn to the right opens the door to the military’s return to power as Bolsonaro sets the country on a new course for trade and foreign policy. A kinship with President Trump may emerge if the two can find common cause against Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro while feeding off each other’s hard-line rhetoric.

Michael McCarthy is a research fellow at American University’s CLALS, an adjunct professor at George Washington University's Elliott School for International Affairs, and the founder and CEO of Caracas Wire.