Context: Venezuela has generally not been a bargaining chip in broader geopolitical games, apart from U.S. lines drawn around military meddling in the region by non-hemispheric powers, but more great power politics are now in play.

• While it may be rational for China and Russia to back down and realize the economic benefits of the transition in Venezuela sought by the U.S., national pride is also at stake.
• If Washington cannot convince China and Russia through arguments around economic self-interest, gaining traction with them becomes much harder.

Between the lines: Trump faces a steep challenge, but it's not all downside for him.

• Even if greater economic pressure fails to drive out Maduro, going all-in could have the convenient side benefit of strengthening his 2020 reelection chances in Florida, where, along with Cuban-Americans, Venezuelan-Americans are key swing voters.
• Supposing Maduro remains in power, Temporary Protected Status or its equivalent for U.S.–based Venezuelan migrants would be a valuable consolation prize to deliver in an election year.

What to watch: Maduro, always spoiling for a fight with the White House, will likely use the embargo to further scapegoat the U.S. for Venezuela's economic collapse.

• Maduro's next counter-moves could involve insisting his delegation is still committed to Norway-sponsored mediation with Guaidó while laying the groundwork for condemnation of harsh American sanctions at the UN.
• Trump could face a choice to escalate his embargo to a full blockade if the new economic pressure does not tilt support toward Guaidó.
• Reluctant to enter the fray, China and Russia may still be drawn in should the U.S. turn to military might to enforce its embargo — and it's unclear what lengths they would go to in defense of Maduro.

Michael McCarthy is a research fellow at American University’s CLALS, an adjunct professor at George Washington University's Elliott School for International Affairs, and the founder and CEO of Caracas Wire.

Where it stands: In both 2016 and 2017, the opposition staged confrontational demonstrations to raise the costs of repression. The protests drew international attention to human rights abuses but failed to worsen regime divisions, sending the effort's leaders back to options at the negotiating table and the ballot box.

• After earlier coercive diplomacy failed to produce a military uprising, the Trump administration is doubling down on its efforts to drive regime change. Increased sanctions pressure could foment greater divisions within the regime, while the refusal to take military options off the table may provide Guaidó a much-needed security umbrella.

What's next: It seems likely that Guaidó will push his Operation Freedom campaign to the brink. And Maduro will probably stick around to push back, despite Secretary Pompeo’s claim that he'd nearly fled into exile. Another clash could come as early as today's May Day demonstrations.

What to watch: The main open questions are what cards Guaidó has left in his hand, how many more rounds of coup poker can be played before one side folds, and how the U.S. and others respond.

• It's still not clear that the U.S. alone can tip the scales. Working with the regional Lima Group will be key, but even more valuable would be finding a way to meet the prices that Beijing, Havana, and Moscow are asking to reevaluate their support for Maduro.

Michael McCarthy is a research fellow at American University’s CLALS, an adjunct professor at George Washington University's Elliott School for International Affairs, and the founder and CEO of Caracas Wire.

Details: Without evidence, Maduro blamed the power outage on the U.S., as the Chavista regime has since rolling blackouts began in 2009. The high command of the military, as well as the party hierarchy, have offered support, but Maduro has yet to convene his cabinet and top political lieutenants in public.

The opposition-controlled National Assembly declared a “state of alarm” and drew attention to Maduro’s subsidized oil sales to Cuba to underscore the regime’s criminal neglect of basic goods and services.

• Juan Guaidó, named interim president by the Assembly, doubled down on his plan to oust Maduro, calling for street demonstrations and international humanitarian aid. That strategy has yet to break the regime, raising questions about whether the resistance could develop into an armed insurrection.

What to watch: Venezuelans will take the next steps, but if clashes continue yielding a stalemate, both sides may soon turn to their international backers for renewed support.

• President Trump’s commitment to regime change in Venezuela seems stronger than ever, and secondary sanctions to expand the scope of unilateral oil sanctions are being prepared. Support for the Guaidó government is having material impact, with a new board appointed at Venezuela-owned CITGO — a step that sets up a key legal battle over republic assets.
• For now, the U.S. strategy has stiffened China and Russia’s resistance, with the countries vetoing U.S.–proposed resolutions at the UN Security Council, and expressing willingness to provide Maduro a degree of financial flexibility.
• Venezuela’s neighbors have continued to work via the Lima Group, heightening the rhetoric about the security implications of the crisis but thus far rejecting military intervention.

Michael McCarthy is a research fellow at American University’s CLALS, an adjunct professor at George Washington University's Elliott School for International Affairs, and the founder and CEO of Caracas Wire.