Driving the news: Officially, sanctions on Zarif extend the “maximum pressure” campaign intended to force the Islamic Republic to retreat from foreign interventions and end its uranium enrichment.

• Yes, but: Iran has become more assertive in its neighborhood and is now breaching limits set in the nuclear deal — the opposite of the Trump administration’s stated goals.

Between the lines: Iran hawks in the U.S. have been irked by Zarif's American media appearances, particularly a controversial Fox News interview in April. Zarif was educated in the U.S. and has a rolodex full of contacts to call upon from his time as Iran’s UN ambassador.

• Ironically, this personal assault on Zarif may boost his fortunes in Iran, where hardliners have blamed him for negotiating an agreement that has led to more economic misery instead of promised sanctions relief.

What to watch: It remains to be seen whether the Trump administration will try to bar Zarif from attending the annual September meeting of the UN General Assembly in New York City, an event Zarif uses to meet with American politicians, scholars and journalists. Such a move could potentially violate the U.S.' host country agreement that allows accredited diplomats to participate.

• For now, Zarif still has access to what has become the main channel of communication between the U.S. and Iran in the Trump era: Twitter. He responded to his sanctioning by tweeting, “It has no effect on me or my family, as I have no property or interests outside of Iran. Thank you for considering me such a huge threat to your agenda.”

Barbara Slavin directs the Future of Iran Initiative at the Atlantic Council.

Background: The Trump administration delivered the first major blow to the JCPOA when it withdrew unilaterally in May 2018; the coup de grace came this April with the announcement that it would permit no more Iranian oil exports.

• Iran initially tried to exert strategic patience and wait out the administration. But it began signaling in April that it could not remain in compliance without receiving the economic benefits promised in return for verifiable curbs on its nuclear program.
• The Iranian public has paid a steep price, watching the economy tank as the government takes greater risks to amass leverage.

What's next: After recent incidents in the Persian Gulf, the Iranians appear to have calculated that the Trump administration is too risk-averse to resort to military action and potentially touch off a regional conflagration.

• President Trump has made it clear he does not want another war in the Middle East, however prepared some of his advisers may be for escalation.
• Yet the U.S. remains isolated on Iranian issues. Despite evidence that Iran was behind attacks on two oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman last week and earlier incidents, many U.S. allies distrust the Trump administration and worry that accepting its conclusion could be seen as justifying a military response. (The U.K. and Saudi Arabia concur with the U.S. assessment.)

The bottom line: Longer-term nuclear restrictions will likely require the U.S. to negotiate a new agreement that provides more durable sanctions relief. In the meantime, tensions could keep rising, pushing up oil prices and further straining an already dysfunctional Middle East.

Barbara Slavin directs the Future of Iran Initiative at the Atlantic Council.

The lapsing waivers, following the U.S. designation of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps as a foreign terrorist organization, expand the administration's approach of unilateral coercion against Iran.

Where it stands: In anticipation of the announcement, world oil prices hit their highest level since November, when the U.S. re-imposed sanctions on Iran following withdrawal from the nuclear deal.

• With Libya in chaos and Venezuelan exports depressed by sanctions and deteriorating infrastructure, it will be difficult for consumers of heavy crude to find adequate substitutes despite the administration's claims that Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and U.S. production will increase to fill the gaps.

The impact: Pompeo claimed the U.S. is acting in the interests of the Iranian people, but they will pay the biggest price as Iran's hard currency earnings dwindle and their government shores up support among its conservative base.

What to watch: Whether Iran's main remaining customers — China, Turkey and India — will bow to U.S. demands remains uncertain. China has denounced the secondary sanctions as illegal; Turkey is a major importer of Iranian energy, as is India, which is in the throes of parliamentary elections.

• Enforcement will also present challenges for the U.S. Transactions between Iran and its major trading partners already avoid the U.S. dollar, and new mechanisms such as Europe's INSTEX are being developed to reduce the dollar's dominance in international transactions.
• Overuse of sanctions, without a clear and realistic goal, could simply encourage more such efforts and ultimately reduce the utility of sanctions as a tool of international diplomacy.

The bottom line: Long accustomed to sanctions and to changing U.S. policies, Iran will likely hunker down and ride out the Trump administration and its threats.

Barbara Slavin directs the Future of Iran Initiative at the Atlantic Council.