The hawkish rhetoric within the administration — from the president to National Security Advisor John Bolton, from Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to Special Representative for Iran Brian Hook — bears a strong resemblance to President George W. Bush’s before the 2003 Iraq invasion. In his 2002 "Axis of Evil" speech, Bush said that the U.S. “will not permit the world's most dangerous regimes to threaten us with the world's most destructive weapons.”

Of course, Iraq turned out to have no such weapons, and devolved into a quagmire from which the U.S. has yet to extricate itself and from which a stable democracy has yet to emerge. Iran, meanwhile, has no nuclear weapons either, and still hews to a deal that curbs its ability to produce such weapons for at least a decade.

It is to justify a unilateral withdrawal from this accord that the Trump administration has escalated the information war against Iran and re-imposed punishing sanctions. On Tuesday, the State Department released a 48-page screed entitled “Outlaw Regime: A Chronicle of Iran’s Destructive Activities.” The first product of Hook’s “Iran Action Group,” the document sifts through 40 years of Iranian history to paint the bleakest portrait possible, at the expense of context and nuance.

The bottom line: Iran does indeed present challenges. But to accuse Iran, as Pompeo did, of responsibility for a “global torrent of destructive activity,” or to threaten Tehran, as Bolton did, with “hell to pay if you cross us,” is to invite a war that could eclipse Iraq in its destructive consequences for the region and beyond.

Barbara Slavin directs the Future of Iran Initiative at the Atlantic Council.

In addition to a natural gas waiver, Iraq is seeking an exemption to continue importing spare auto parts for the operators of 70,000 Iranian-produced taxis, as well as for ordinary drivers who own an additional 200,000 cars of Iranian origin. Meanwhile, Baghdad wants to preserve the lucrative religious tourism that brought more than 2.5 million Iranians to the pilgrimage cities of Najaf and Karbala last year, an industry that could also be threatened by the sanctions. Last but not least, Iraq would need to find a way to carry out financial transactions with Iran that bypass the U.S. dollar and other Western currencies.

It remains uncertain whether the Trump administration will grant Iraq waivers to shore up the stability of a country that has seen precious little for decades, and which has just beaten back a devastatingly destructive Islamic State insurgency.

What to watch: Trump's decision might rest on whether Iraq chooses a prime minister acceptable to Washington — such as the current one, Haider al-Abadi — or someone who is considered too close to Tehran. If the former, the Trump administration might be willing to give Iraq more time to wind down its business with Iran and acquire the infrastructure needed to use its own natural gas for electricity.

Barbara Slavin directs the Future of Iran Initiative at the Atlantic Council.

In a background briefing for reporters on Monday, a senior Trump administration official boasted that, because of sanctions, the Iranian currency "is tanking, unemployment in Iran is rising, and there are widespread protests over social issues and labor unrest." At the same time, the administration refused to take responsibility for the humanitarian damage its policies have caused, placing the blame on Iran’s government.

Officials also continued to claim that the U.S. is leading a “coalition” against the Islamic Republic, even as European allies were decrying U.S. actions and vowing to maintain the deal despite U.S. sabotage.

The main beneficiary of the U.S.' Iran reversal is China, which became Iran's top trading partner more than a decade ago. Beijing has already told the Trump administration that it will not reduce Iranian oil imports after the slated return of oil sanctions on November 4. Turkey, India, Russia and some small and medium-sized European companies have also said they will continue to trade with Iran.

The bottom line: President Trump, who has offered to meet with Iran’s leaders, seems to think he can produce a better deal than the one that hundreds of diplomats and scientists from seven countries worked for years to accomplish. But Iran is unlikely to bow to U.S. demands and is not interested in a photo-op summit. Iranians will suffer, but the U.S. is unlikely to benefit.

Barbara Slavin directs the Future of Iran Initiative at the Atlantic Council.