Joe Biden and President Trump at a debate in Ohio. Photo: Jim Watson, Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images

Democratic nominee Joe Biden is leading President Trump 49% to 41% in Arizona, according to a new New York Times-Siena College poll.

Why it matters: Arizona carries 11 electoral votes and hasn't voted for a Democratic nominee for president since 1996. The results are essentially unchanged from a Times-Siena poll of the state last month, suggesting Trump remains in a deep hole with less than a month to go until the election.

By the numbers: Biden leads by 9% in Maricopa County, which houses 60% of the state's population in the capital of Phoenix and surrounding suburbs. 6% of likely voters polled statewide said they are still undecided.

Worth noting: In Arizona's closely watched Senate race, Democrat Mark Kelly leads the incumbent Martha McSally 50% to 39%, according to the poll. In last month's survey, Kelly was up 50% to 42%.

Methodology: The poll was conducted on October 1-3, 2020 with 655 Arizona likely voters. The poll has a margin of error of 4.2 percentage points

Go deeper: Cook Political Report moves Arizona from “toss up” to “lean Democrat” in presidential race

Go deeper

Ben Geman, author of Generate
Oct 21, 2020 - Politics & Policy

Poll shows strong backing for Biden's $2 trillion climate plan

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

A new poll of nearly 1,000 likely voters suggests Joe Biden would have political wind at his back on the proposal on climate change if he wins and Democrats take the Senate.

Why it matters: 66% of likely voters support a plan to spend $2 trillion on clean energy and climate efforts, per this New York Times/Siena College poll.

SurveyMonkey poll: Young voters' red-state blue wall

Data: SurveyMonkey; Chart: Danielle Alberti/Axios

There are only five states in the U.S. where voters younger than 35 embrace President Trump over Joe Biden, and none are swing states, according to new 50-state SurveyMonkey-Tableau data for Axios.

Why it matters: These scattered red spots in a sea of blue vividly illustrate Trump's peril if young people were to actually turn out this year. Put another way, Trump's path to re-election depends heavily on younger adults staying home.

Dave Lawler, author of World
17 mins ago - World

Special report: Trump's hopes of nuclear deal with Putin come down to the wire

Illustration: Lazaro Gamio/Axios

A surprise offer from Vladimir Putin has the U.S. and Russia once again circling a potential pre-election nuclear deal.

The big picture: The last treaty constraining the U.S. and Russia, New START, is due to expire on Feb. 5, 2021, two weeks after the next U.S. presidential inauguration. For the first time since the height of the Cold War, the nuclear guardrails could come off.