Photo: Eric Thayer/Getty Images

Anthony Kennedy's retirement from the Supreme Court will reverberate for decades — especially in the ongoing legal debate over abortion rights.

The big picture: Kennedy was a true swing vote on abortion rights, upholding the central premise of Roe v. Wade but allowing states to impose at least some restrictions on access to the procedure.

  • Kennedy will all but certainly be replaced with a more staunchly conservative jurist. And the court's existing bloc of four Republican nominees is already much more open to states' abortion restrictions than Kennedy was.

Threat level: We're a long way from Roe being overturned. The more immediate likelihood is that limits on the procedure will be upheld, and that red states will seize that opening to push the envelope on more restrictive policies.

  • Expect to see states pursue — and the court uphold — tighter regulation of abortion providers and tighter time limits on when the procedure can be performed.
  • If Roe is ultimately overturned, abortion would not automatically become illegal. The issue would return to the states — meaning it would likely be legal in blue states and illegal in red states.

What's next: Some Democrats are trying to tie the Supreme Court vacancy into their health care-focused midterms strategy, but that's a tough sell.

  • Whoever President Trump nominates, he or she will strenuously avoid taking a position on the latest Affordable Care Act lawsuit, or the Justice Department's decision to seek an end to protections for people with pre-existing conditions.
  • Supreme Court nominees never comment on active lawsuits they might have decide if they're confirmed.

Go deeper:

Go deeper

29 mins ago - Technology

Senate panel votes to subpoena Big Tech CEOs

Photo: Graeme Jennings/Pool via Getty Images

The Senate Commerce Committee has voted to authorize subpoenas compelling Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg, Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey and Google CEO Sundar Pichai to testify before the panel.

Why it matters: The tech giants are yet again facing a potential grilling on Capitol Hill sometime before the end of the year, at a time when tech is being used as a punching bag from both the left and right.

Trump administration cuts refugee cap to new record low

Photo: Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images

The Trump administration plans to only admit a maximum of 15,000 refugees this fiscal year, the State Department said in a release late Wednesday evening.

Why it matters: This is yet another record low refugee cap. Before leaving office, President Obama set the refugee limit at 110,000 for fiscal year 2017 — a number Trump has continued to slash throughout his presidency.

Updated 2 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Eniola Odetunde/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 9 a.m. ET: 34,018,143 — Total deaths: 1,014,995 — Total recoveries: 23,674,533Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 9 a.m. ET: 7,234,327 — Total deaths: 206,963 — Total recoveries: 2,840,688 — Total tests: 103,939,667Map.
  3. Health: New poll shows alarming coronavirus vaccine skepticism — New research centers will study "long-haul" COVID — Coronavirus infections rise in 25 states.
  4. Business: Remdesivir is good business for Gilead.
  5. Retail: The holiday shopping season will now begin in October.
  6. 🎧Podcast: The looming second wave of airline layoffs.