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The coming conflict between millennials and boomers

Young boy playing a game of chess with an old man.
Photo: Hulton Archive / Getty images

The U.S. is headed for a potentially dangerous new social rift, this time between millennials and baby boomers, each wrestling for diminishing jobs and shrinking government assistance, according to a new paper.

Quick take: In the next decade or so, automation and demographics will become a new dimension to the economic and social pressures already roiling the U.S. and societies around the world, according to the study released today by Bain. This new conflict will pit millennial workers displaced by machines against boomers living on Social Security and Medicare. "Who votes, who wins, and who goes to the polls become a highly politicized issue potentially," says Karen Harris, managing director of Bain's Macro Trends Group.

Bain paints the following picture of the years up to around 2030:

  • The U.S. population is aging fast, and many older workers are staying on the job longer.
  • With the labor force shrinking and needed skills hard to find, companies will rapidly automate.
  • 20%-25% of current jobs will be wiped out, adding up to some 40 million workers, many in the least-advanced positions, often millennials.

This will set up generational conflicts, says Bain. Chiefly, it will pit millennials against boomers for jobs, and for differing government assistance: millennials will require job retraining and perhaps a basic income to compensate for low or no wages; and older Americans will demand the Social Security and health care that are bedrocks of current society. This will all be set against the backdrop of a government strapped by enormous deficits racked up since the start of the century.

"The question is what decisions are made on who gets the first call" on the government budget, Harris tells Axios. "That will bring tension between the working-age population and retirees."

Amy Harder Mar 23
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Climate change goes to business school(s)

Beautiful long entrance to Duke University, with the chapel at the end
Duke University Chapel. Photo: Lance King/Getty Images

More than a dozen business schools and some of Wall Street’s biggest firms are converging for the next two days at Duke University to discuss the business effects of climate change.

Why it matters: This conference is being billed as the first to bring together students from a range of business schools to address the issue. That reflects both how climate change is becoming more of a tangible business concern and that younger people care more about it than older generations.

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The U.S. suburbs are hot again

The talk around the world is about the rise of the city. But in the U.S., suburbanization is accelerating, according to new Census data released today.

Data: Census Bureau, analysis by Jed Kolko at Indeed.com; Chart: Axios Visuals

What's happening: Since about 2011, the growth of the urban counties of large cities has been sliding. Population growth in their higher-density suburbs has been falling since 2015 as well. But, as you see in the chart above, lower-density suburbs had the highest growth among all places, and exurbs and small towns have also been on the rise, according to an analysis of the data by Jed Kolko, chief economist at Indeed.