Mass shootings are up in the U.S., but domestic security risks have been falling for a month, according to an artificial intelligence algorithm used by GeoQuant, a Berkeley-based political risk firm.

Meanwhile, the multiple crises abroad — North Korea, Syria and Russia among them — have raised U.S. geopolitical risk, said Mark Rosenberg, GeoQuant's CEO. In late May, the firm's measure of domestic security risk crossed over the geopolitical risk line.

What it means: Unlike on Wall Street, where algorithms are now widely used for trading and forecasting, machine learning tools are new in political risk. GeoQuant is one of the first firms testing them in the field, developing forecasts alongside political scientists. According to its current forecast, the threat of U.S. political violence remains high, with the decline in security risk coinciding with the Trump administration's greater openness to police crackdowns, along with the fall of border crossings and immigration.

Expand chart

Data: GeoQuant; Chart: Lazaro Gamio / Axios

Go deeper

7 hours ago - Health

Fauci says if people won't wear masks, maybe it should be mandated

Anthony Fauci. Photo: Graeme Jennings- Pool/Getty Images

NIAID director Anthony Fauci told CNN on Friday evening that if "people are not wearing masks, then maybe we should be mandating it."

Why it matters: Fauci made the comments the same day the U.S. hit its highest daily COVID-19 case count since the pandemic began.

Harris to Black voters: Casting a ballot is about honoring your ancestors

Democratic vice presidential nominee Kamala Harris speaks at a "Get Out The Vote" rally at Morehouse College. Photo: Elijah Nouvelage/AFP via Getty Images

Sen. Kamala Harris appealed to Black voters in Georgia on Friday, urging them to "honor the ancestors" by casting ballots, and again calling President Trump a "racist."

Why it matters: The U.S. saw a significant decline in African-American voter turnout between 2012 and 2016, reaching its lowest point since 2000. Higher turnout among Black Americans this year could tip the balance in favor of Democrats in key battleground states, including Georgia.

Updated 8 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

  1. Politics: Fauci: Trump hasn't been to a COVID task force meeting in months.
  2. Sports: The youth sports exodus continues — Big Ten football is back.
  3. Health: U.S. hits highest daily COVID-19 case count since pandemic began —AstraZeneca to resume vaccine trial in U.S.How to help save 130,000 lives.
  4. Retail: Santa won't greet kids at Macy's this year.
  5. World: Spain and France exceed 1 million cases.