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Illustration: Rebecca Zisser/Axios

If Seattle is an example, Amazon's planned second headquarters could bring a housing crisis to the as-yet-unannounced city where it is built, pushing up home prices by as much as 30%, according to a new analysis.

Driving the news: Per the study, prices in Newark, which is predicted to see the greatest potential impact, could climb 33.5%. D.C., a leading HQ2 contender, could see a rise of 3.9%, and Boston, at the low end of projected impacts, could get a 0.4% bump.

The bottom line: Amazon HQ2 will take up 8 million square feet, employ up to 50,000 people and cost some $5 billion. A footprint of that scale will strain any city's infrastructure and trigger economic impacts that will reverberate for decades.

For a picture of how HQ2 will shake up housing markets, Mr. Cooper, a home loan and mortgage company, analyzed home price changes in Seattle after Amazon expanded its headquarters there in 2010. It attmpted to isolate Amazon’s influence from other factors — and the impact in Seattle hinted at what’s in store for the e-commerce giant’s second home.

As of now, 20 cities are finalists to host the complex. The analysis looked at the 18 that had adequate data from which to draw conclusions on home price bumps:

  • Newark: 33.5%
  • Raleigh: 27.2%
  • Phoenix: 12.1%
  • Indianapolis: 11.9%
  • Montgomery County, MD: 11.3%
  • Columbus: 10.4%
  • Austin: 9.9%
  • Dallas: 8.7%
  • Denver: 8.4%
  • Miami: 8.2%
  • Nashville: 6.6%
  • Philadelphia: 6.0%
  • Atlanta: 5.0%
  • New York City: 4.3%
  • Chicago: 4.1%
  • D.C.: 3.9%
  • Los Angeles: 3.9%
  • Boston: 0.4%

"Wherever Amazon goes, they're going to change that city landscape completely," says Alexander Lowry, a professor of financial analysis at Gordon College. Even in a city like Boston, where the report predicts only a slight price bump, the market is hot, he says.

Many of the bigger cities on Amazon's shortlist are already straining to provide affordable housing to residents, and the e-commerce giant moving in would shift the market further toward pricier homes, says Lowry.

  • "If you're lucky, and you've been there a long time, you can sell at a good price," but if you're a renter, you may be in trouble, he says.

But, but, but: Amazon has said it's determined not to do to its new home what it did to Seattle. By way of preparing HQ2 bids, "all of the cities have had to do some planning already," Lowry says. "Every city has some different problems, and they've all had to speak to those."

Go deeper

Updated 29 mins ago - World

Biden cleans up comments about Russia invading Ukraine

Photo: Doug Mills-Pool/Getty Images

President Biden sought to clarify his suggestion that a "minor incursion" by Russia into Ukraine may not draw the same response as a large invasion, telling reporters Thursday that "Russia will pay a heavy price" if any troops cross the border.

Why it matters: Some officials in Kyiv saw Biden's comments as inviting Russian aggression.

Tina Reed, author of Vitals
42 mins ago - Health

Study finds bias against Black patients written into medical charts

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

Black patients were more than two-and-a-half times as likely as white patients to have negative descriptors about them in their electronic health record, according to a study published Wednesday in Health Affairs.

Why it matters: The study is further evidence of bias in the U.S. health care system, which can ultimately result in worse care and disparately poor outcomes.

Jan. 6 panel asks Ivanka Trump to cooperate with investigation

Former President Trump and daughter Ivanka Trump walk to Marine One on the South Lawn of the White House on January 4, 2020 in Washington, DC. Photo: Drew Angerer/Getty Images

The House select committee investigating the Jan. 6 Capitol riot sent a letter Thursday to Ivanka Trump requesting her cooperation with the investigation.

Driving the news: "We write to request your voluntary cooperation with our investigation on a range of critical topics," the chair wrote in a letter to the former president's daughter.