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A sign directing people to an insurance company where they can sign up for the Affordable Care Act. Photo: Joe Raedle/Getty Images

The Affordable Care Act, President Obama's signature achievement, may be headed back to the Supreme Court after a conservative federal judge in Texas struck down the individual mandate as unconstitutional last evening.

Be smart: This really could end with the Affordable Care Act being wiped out. There’s no guarantee that a more conservative Supreme Court won’t just let the law die.

A White House statement said: "We expect this ruling will be appealed to the Supreme Court. Pending the appeal process, the law remains in place."

  • "The ruling was over a lawsuit filed this year by a group of Republican governors and state attorneys general," per the N.Y. Times.
  • U.S. District Court Judge Reed O’Connor in Fort Worth, a George W. Bush appointee, wrote that the individual mandate requiring people to have health insurance "can no longer be sustained as an exercise of Congress’s tax power."

The big picture: This was an amazingly broad ruling. The judge didn't just strike down everything that's related to the individual mandate. He struck down everything, period.

  • That includes the parts that everyone likes, like the expansion of Medicaid, young adults staying on their parents' plans — and, of course, coverage of pre-existing conditions.
  • Nothing happens right away. The ruling will be appealed, there's no injunction to shut down the law right now, and the Trump administration is making it clear the law stays in place for now.

Why it matters: You should take this ruling seriously. It's getting a lot of criticism from legal experts, including ACA critics, and it could be overturned — but it won't definitely be overturned. This really could end with the ACA being wiped out.

  • The ACA has already survived two near-death experiences with the Supreme Court — over the mandate in 2012 and subsidies in 2015.
  • But that was before the Kavanaugh Court. If this ruling gets that far, the justices could say the ruling went too far and overturn it.
  • But there’s no guarantee that a more conservative court won’t just let the law die.

Political fallout: This could be a nightmare for Republicans in suburbs and swing states.

  • The midterms proved that the ACA has gotten more popular since the GOP started trying to repeal it — especially the protections for pre-existing conditions.
  • If the law goes away, that goes with it. This is not the fight Republicans want to have. 

Go deeper

41 seconds ago - Sports

In photos: Tokyo Olympics day 10 highlights

Puerto Rico's Jasmine Camacho-Quinn (L) wins ahead of USA's Kendra Harrison in the women's 100m hurdles final during the Olympic Games at the Olympic Stadium in Tokyo on August 2, 2021. Photo: Jewel Samad/AFP via Getty Images

Day 10 of the Tokyo Olympic Games saw Puerto Rico bag its first-ever track gold medal when Jasmine Camacho-Quinn beat American world record holder Kendra Harrison to win the women’s 100-meter hurdles Monday.

The big picture: There was better news for Team USA in the basketball, where the women's national team beat France 93-82 — meaning the Americans are entering the medal round undefeated as they go for yet another gold, Axios' Ina Fried reports from Tokyo. France still advanced to the quarterfinals as well.

Updated 1 hour ago - Sports

IOC: Belarus sprinter who sought refuge in Tokyo "safe"

Krystsina Tsimanouskaya of Belarus in 2019. Photo: Ivan Romano/Getty Images

Belarusian Olympian Krystsina Tsimanouskaya, who sought refuge in Tokyo, is in the care of Japanese authorities and the UN refugee agency is now involved in her case, an International Olympic Committee official told reporters Monday.

The latest: Officials in Poland and the Czech Republic have offered to help the 24-year-old sprinter, who refused national team orders to board a flight home after being taken to Tokyo's Haneda airport Sunday following her criticism of Belarusian coaches, per Reuters

Updated 2 hours ago - Sports

Olympics dashboard

Italy's Lamont Marcell Jacobs of Team Italy crosses the finish line ahead of American Fred Kerley in the men's 100m final on day nine of the Olympic Games at Olympic Stadium in Tokyo, Japan, on Sunday. Photo: Cameron Spencer/Getty Images

🚨: IOC "looking into" American Raven Saunders' Olympic podium gesture

🏃🏾: Italy's Lamont Marcell Jacobs: Reconnecting with U.S. father "gave me the desire to win" Olympic 100m sprint race.

🥇High jumpers persuade Olympic officials to let them share gold

🏌️‍♂️: Golfer Xander Schauffele wins gold for U.S. by one shot

🤸🏿‍♀️: Simone Biles won't compete in Olympic floor finals, individual vault or uneven bars

🏳️‍⚧️: Axios at the Olympics: Games grapple with trans athletesTrans athletes see the Tokyo Games as a watershed moment

Go deeper: Full Axios coverage