Sign up for our daily briefing

Make your busy days simpler with Axios AM/PM. Catch up on what's new and why it matters in just 5 minutes.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Catch up on the day's biggest business stories

Subscribe to Axios Closer for insights into the day’s business news and trends and why they matter

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Stay on top of the latest market trends

Subscribe to Axios Markets for the latest market trends and economic insights. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Sports news worthy of your time

Binge on the stats and stories that drive the sports world with Axios Sports. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Tech news worthy of your time

Get our smart take on technology from the Valley and D.C. with Axios Login. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Get the inside stories

Get an insider's guide to the new White House with Axios Sneak Peek. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Denver news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Denver

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Des Moines news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Des Moines

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Twin Cities news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Twin Cities

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Tampa Bay news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Tampa Bay

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Charlotte news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Charlotte

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!
Expand chart
Data: GroupM; Chart: Will Chase/Axios

The advertising industry, plagued last year by pandemic-driven budget cuts, is poised to return stronger than ever in 2021 and beyond, according to several new forecasts.

Be smart: The quick turnaround means that the ad market is recovering faster than it did following the 2008 recession.

  • "In 2021, the American advertising industry is poised to regain all that it lost in 2020 and more," wrote GroupM's Brian Wieser in an analyst note last week.

Why it matters: In a recession, marketing budgets are typically the first expense cut from a company's budget. But because the government injected so much stimulus into the economy, initial fears of a prolonged consumer spending slump have subsided.

  • "Unlike the economic slowdowns of years past, the ratio of ad spending to U.S. GDP did not sharply inflect down, rather it moved up higher," media analyst Michael Nathanson wrote in a note to clients. Nathanson adds that his firm MoffettNathanson is "incredibly bullish about the years that follow. "

By the numbers:

  • In the U.S., GroupM forecasts that the the industry will grow by 15% this year, better than its prior 12% forecast. Wieser predicts that the U.S. "should end the year with 6% more activity than we saw in the last 'normal' year of 2019."
  • Globally, Magna — another advertising agency — also increased its forecasts, predicting the global ad market will increase by 6.4% to $240 billion this year — up from the 4.1% that was originally forecasted in December.

Between the lines: Beyond the general economic recovery, analysts are also optimistic that in-person activities, like sporting events, live entertainment and travel, will return faster-than-expected, driving marketing opportunities.

  • The summer Olympics, for example, is expected to drive $800m of incremental revenue this year, per Magna.
  • Magna expects that the strongest ad spend growth rates will come from the travel, automotive, beverages, and movies categories.

The big picture: The pandemic has expedited the migration from analog media to digital, and the same effect can be seen in the advertising market.

  • Digital advertising was resilient during the pandemic, thanks in large part to small businesses leaning into e-commerce, and favoring the likes of tech giants like Google, Amazon and Facebook.
  • Traditional publishers on the other hand, "barely stabilized digital ad sales," per Magna.

Yes, but: For certain industries — like the automotive sector — Wieser notes that recovery could be a bit slower, thanks to the reliance on foreign supply chains that are linked to countries that may not recover as quickly as the U.S.

Go deeper

Updated 1 hour ago - World

In photos: Dozens dead as Israel and Hamas intensify aerial bombardments

People gather at the site of a collapsed building in the aftermath of Israeli air strikes on Gaza City on May 11. Photo: Mahmud Hams / AFP) (Photo by MAHMUD HAMS/AFP via Getty Images

At least 35 Palestinians and five Israelis have been killed as fighting between Israel's military and Hamas entered a third day, per Reuters.

The big picture: The worst aerial exchanges of fire between Israel and Hamas since 2014 come after escalating violence in Jerusalem that injured hundreds of Palestinians and several Israeli police officers during protests over the planned evictions of Palestinian families from their homes.

Scoop: Stephanie Murphy announcing challenge to Marco Rubio

Rep. Stephanie Murphy. Photo: Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images

Democratic Rep. Stephanie Murphy is planning to announce a campaign for the U.S. Senate in Florida against Republican Sen. Marco Rubio in early June, people familiar with the matter tell Axios.

Why it matters: Murphy is a proven fundraiser. Jumping in now would give her an early start to build her case for the Democratic nomination and potentially force Rubio and allied GOP groups to spend heavily to retain a seat in a state that’s trending Republican.

4 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Inside the GOP's infrastructure strategy

Sen. Roger Wicker. Photo: Stefani Reynolds/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Top Republican senators are hoping the White House will make some sort of counteroffer to their infrastructure proposal when they meet with President Biden on Thursday, lawmakers and their aides tell Axios.

Why it matters: This is a sign of how serious the negotiations are, they say. In advance of the meeting, some of the senators are already publicly signaling the areas in which they have flexibility.