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Expand chart
Data: GroupM; Chart: Will Chase/Axios

The advertising industry, plagued last year by pandemic-driven budget cuts, is poised to return stronger than ever in 2021 and beyond, according to several new forecasts.

Be smart: The quick turnaround means that the ad market is recovering faster than it did following the 2008 recession.

  • "In 2021, the American advertising industry is poised to regain all that it lost in 2020 and more," wrote GroupM's Brian Wieser in an analyst note last week.

Why it matters: In a recession, marketing budgets are typically the first expense cut from a company's budget. But because the government injected so much stimulus into the economy, initial fears of a prolonged consumer spending slump have subsided.

  • "Unlike the economic slowdowns of years past, the ratio of ad spending to U.S. GDP did not sharply inflect down, rather it moved up higher," media analyst Michael Nathanson wrote in a note to clients. Nathanson adds that his firm MoffettNathanson is "incredibly bullish about the years that follow. "

By the numbers:

  • In the U.S., GroupM forecasts that the the industry will grow by 15% this year, better than its prior 12% forecast. Wieser predicts that the U.S. "should end the year with 6% more activity than we saw in the last 'normal' year of 2019."
  • Globally, Magna — another advertising agency — also increased its forecasts, predicting the global ad market will increase by 6.4% to $240 billion this year — up from the 4.1% that was originally forecasted in December.

Between the lines: Beyond the general economic recovery, analysts are also optimistic that in-person activities, like sporting events, live entertainment and travel, will return faster-than-expected, driving marketing opportunities.

  • The summer Olympics, for example, is expected to drive $800m of incremental revenue this year, per Magna.
  • Magna expects that the strongest ad spend growth rates will come from the travel, automotive, beverages, and movies categories.

The big picture: The pandemic has expedited the migration from analog media to digital, and the same effect can be seen in the advertising market.

  • Digital advertising was resilient during the pandemic, thanks in large part to small businesses leaning into e-commerce, and favoring the likes of tech giants like Google, Amazon and Facebook.
  • Traditional publishers on the other hand, "barely stabilized digital ad sales," per Magna.

Yes, but: For certain industries — like the automotive sector — Wieser notes that recovery could be a bit slower, thanks to the reliance on foreign supply chains that are linked to countries that may not recover as quickly as the U.S.

Go deeper

Mike Allen, author of AM
2 mins ago - Politics & Policy

Ohio upset's '22 clues

Shontel Brown campaigns with Rep. James Clyburn in Cleveland on July 31. Photo: Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images

An upset in Ohio on Tuesday night is giving moderate, Biden-aligned Democrats momentum vs. the party's vocal left ahead of next year's midterms.

Driving the news: In a special primary for U.S. House in the Cleveland area, Cuyahoga County Council member Shontel Brown pulled out a surprise victory for the Democratic establishment in Cleveland.

1 hour ago - Health

New York City revives vaccine passports

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

New York City yesterday became the first city in the U.S. to require proof of coronavirus vaccination for indoor dining and other leisure activities, a measure popular among public health experts but previously squashed by political backlash to "vaccine passports."

Why it matters: Employers and now local governments are starting to ensure that remaining unvaccinated will have consequences for everyday life, testing the resolve of those who say nothing could persuade them to get a shot.

Updated 1 hour ago - Sports

Olympics dashboard

Sakura Yosozumi during women's park skateboarding at the Olympics on Aug. 4, 2021. Photo: Ulrik Pedersen/NurPhoto via Getty Images

🤼🏿‍♀️ "Making history": Mensah-Stock first Black woman to win Olympic wrestling gold

🛹: 2 teens and girl, 12, sweep board at women's park skateboarding

🥇: Sydney McLaughlin breaks own world record to win gold in 400m hurdles

📈: Simone Biles' exit brings global attention to mental health

🦠: Greece's artistic swimming team to miss Olympics after COVID outbreak

🏃🏾‍♂️: Tampa teen phenom Erriyon Knighton eyes gold in Tokyo

🛫: Belarus sprinter Krystsina Tsimanouskaya departs Tokyo for Vienna

.📷: In photos: Tokyo Olympics day 12 highlights

Go deeper: Full Axios coverage