Data: MAGNA; Chart: Naema Ahmed/Axios (NOTE: National and Local TV estimates include cyclical spending on things like U.S. elections and the Olympics.)

The advertising market is expected to recover next year, according to the latest forecast from Magna, an advertising agency.

By the numbers: "If the mainstream macro-economic scenario holds, and the U.S. GDP grows by 3.2%, we are looking at a total ad market that would recover by 4% next year," says Vincent Letang, EVP and Managing Partner of Global Market Intelligence at Magna.

Yes but: The growth will mostly be in digital ads, while linear ad markets like TV and radio will barely stabilize.

Driving the news: Letang attributes the gradual stabilization of the market to 4 things:

  1. The economic reopening
  2. Political spend increases
  3. The return of sports to TV
  4. The Olympics

The big picture: "We think sports programs drives more than 20% TV ad spend in the U.S.," says Letang. Looking ahead to 2021, Letang says the Summer Olympics should generate roughly $800 million dollars of additional ad spend in 2021.

What's next: Nearly every industry is expected to start increasing spend on advertising, but two of the top client verticals, automotive and retail, will continue to struggle.

  • "Automotive was an industry that was already stagnating pre-COVID," says Letang. "Even if the economy recovers, the high unemployment rate will be an inhibitor to large ticket items like cars."
  • Automotive advertising slumps, combined with an off-year for political advertising, is going to severely impact local TV advertising.

Go deeper

Tech's steadily tightening limits on political ads

Illustration: Lazaro Gamio / Axios

Nearly every major tech platform has acted to limit political ads in some way since 2016. Some have enacted strict bans and allow no political, social or election ads whatsoever, while others have put more temporary or partial limits in place.

Why it matters: Formal federal regulation of online political ads is not in sight, but the pressure on platforms from lawmakers and activists has so far been enough to push them to act voluntarily.

Pence to continue traveling despite aides testing positive for COVID-19

Marc Short with Pence in March. Photo: Drew Angerer/Getty Images

Marc Short, Vice President Mike Pence’s chief of staff, tested positive for the coronavirus Saturday and is quarantining, according to a White House statement.

Why it matters: Short is Pence's closest aide, and was one of the most powerful forces on the White House coronavirus task force. Pence and second lady Karen Pence tested negative for the virus on Sunday morning, according to the vice president's office.

AOC: "Extremely important" that Biden offer Bernie Sanders a Cabinet position

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) said on CNN's "State of the Union" Sunday that she believes it's "extremely important" that Joe Biden offer Sen. Bernie Sanders and other progressive leaders Cabinet positions if he's elected president.

The big picture: Ocasio-Cortez was pressed repeatedly on policy differences between her and the more moderate Biden, including her opposition to fracking and support for Medicare for All. She responded that it would be a "privilege" and a "luxury" to be able to lobby a Biden administration on progressive issues, insisting that the focus right now should be on winning the White House.

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