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Data: MAGNA; Chart: Naema Ahmed/Axios (NOTE: National and Local TV estimates include cyclical spending on things like U.S. elections and the Olympics.)

The advertising market is expected to recover next year, according to the latest forecast from Magna, an advertising agency.

By the numbers: "If the mainstream macro-economic scenario holds, and the U.S. GDP grows by 3.2%, we are looking at a total ad market that would recover by 4% next year," says Vincent Letang, EVP and Managing Partner of Global Market Intelligence at Magna.

Yes but: The growth will mostly be in digital ads, while linear ad markets like TV and radio will barely stabilize.

Driving the news: Letang attributes the gradual stabilization of the market to 4 things:

  1. The economic reopening
  2. Political spend increases
  3. The return of sports to TV
  4. The Olympics

The big picture: "We think sports programs drives more than 20% TV ad spend in the U.S.," says Letang. Looking ahead to 2021, Letang says the Summer Olympics should generate roughly $800 million dollars of additional ad spend in 2021.

What's next: Nearly every industry is expected to start increasing spend on advertising, but two of the top client verticals, automotive and retail, will continue to struggle.

  • "Automotive was an industry that was already stagnating pre-COVID," says Letang. "Even if the economy recovers, the high unemployment rate will be an inhibitor to large ticket items like cars."
  • Automotive advertising slumps, combined with an off-year for political advertising, is going to severely impact local TV advertising.

Go deeper

Scoop: Google to lift post-election political ad ban on Dec. 10

Photo: Loic Venance/AFP via Getty Images

Google informed its advertising partners on Wednesday that beginning Dec. 10, it will lift the post-election political ad ban that went into effect after polls closed on Nov. 3, according to an email obtained by Axios.

The big picture: The lift comes about a month ahead of two crucial Georgia runoff races that will determine control of the Senate.

Austria approves COVID vaccine mandate for adults

A vaccination center installed at the Barbara Chapel of St Stephen's Cathedral in Vienna, Austria. Photo: Alex Halada/AFP via Getty Images

Austria's lower house of parliament voted on Thursday in favor of making COVID-19 vaccinations compulsory for most adults from next month.

Why it matters: The bill is expected to soon pass the upper house and be signed by President Alexander Van der Bellen in order for the law to take effect Feb. 1, per Reuters. It'd make Austria the first EU nation to impose such a sweeping mandate.

Hope King, author of Closer
Updated 5 hours ago - Economy & Business

Peloton pumps its brakes

Data: FactSet; Chart: Axios Visuals

Peloton’s popularity is falling as swiftly as it shot up.

Why it matters: Not all pandemic habits stick around. Peloton's trajectory over the past two years exemplifies how challenging it's been for companies to gauge shifts in consumer demand — particularly in sectors heavily altered by the pandemic.

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