The Affordable Care Act's cost-sharing reduction payments saga continues: The Trump administration ended the payments in 2017, Congress failed to fund them, and now 3 judges have said the government is still on the hook for the payments.

The big picture: "If their decisions stand, insurers could recover roughly $12 billion a year, every year, until Congress intervenes to stop the bleeding," Nicholas Bagley writes in the Incidental Economist.

  • While Congress never appropriated the funds, which was the basis of a different lawsuit, the ACA still required the U.S. government to pay the subsidies to insurers.
  • When the payments stopped, insurers sued, and the cases are ongoing in the Court of Federal Claims.

The bottom line: It's looking unlikely that any final decision, if insurers win, will take into account that insurers have made up for the lost subsidy money by raising premiums and, thus, premium subsidies — the ACA's other form of government assistance.

  • The 3 judges have either said or suggested that this won't impact their decision.
  • That means that the possibility of insurers participating on exchanges getting a multi-billion dollar windfall has increased.

Go deeper: Health insurer loses $73 million after Trump halts ACA subsidies

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Trump's Tucker mind-meld

Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photo: Roy Rochlin/Getty Images and BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP via Getty Images

If you want to understand the rhetorical roots of Trump's Independence Day speech at Mount Rushmore, go back and watch Tucker Carlson's monologues for the past six weeks.

Between the lines: Trump — or rather his speechwriter Stephen Miller — framed the president's opposition to the Black Lives Matter protest movement using the same imagery Carlson has been laying out night after night on Fox.

Updated 2 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 6 p.m. ET: 11,366,145 — Total deaths: 532,644 — Total recoveries — 6,154,138Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 6 p.m. ET: 2,874,396 — Total deaths: 129,870 — Total recoveries: 906,763 — Total tested: 35,512,916Map.
  3. States: Photos of America's pandemic July 4 ICU beds in Arizona hot spot near capacity — Houston mayor warns about hospitals
  4. Public health: U.S. coronavirus infections hit record highs for 3 straight days.
  5. Politics: Former Trump official Tom Bossert says face masks “are not enough”
  6. World: Mexican leaders call for tighter border control as infections rise in U.S.
  7. Sports: Sports return stalked by coronavirus
  8. 1 📽 thing: Drive-in movie theaters are making a comeback.

Bolton's hidden aftershocks

Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photo: Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

The news media has largely moved on, but foreign government officials remain fixated on John Bolton's memoir, "The Room Where It Happened."

Why it matters: Bolton's detailed inside-the-Oval revelations have raised the blood pressure of allies who were already stressed about President Trump's unreliability.